Given yesterday's blockbuster news of Ryan Braun's suspension dismissal, along with the variety of reports coming in from Spring Training, it's time to look at a few players whose ADP are expected to increase over the next couple of weeks. There has been plenty of data to pore over these last few weeks, but now it's getting down to crunch time. The number of mocks is decreasing while the number of actual drafts is increasing and this most recent data is going to be the most crucial, especially if you draft closer to the start of the season. Some of the names will be sleepers to keep on your radar while the rest are players whom you may have to grab a round or two earlier than their current ADP as your competition will be eager to swoop in and steal them from you.
Ryan Braun, OF MIL
Current ADP: 26.91 Recent Trend: +5.2|PERCENT|
OK, so obviously not a sleeper here. The dismissal of Braun's suspension is not only sending shockwaves through MLB, but is seriously impacting the fantasy game right now. With a potential 50 game suspension hanging over his head, Braun had slipped down to, roughly, an early third round pick. Those that were drafting him were willing to take the early season hit and reap the benefits later on down the road. Those that passed expected the hammer to come down and really disrupt his year.
Well, there's no getting him on the cheap anymore. Had there been no talk of PEDs investigations or possible suspensions, Braun would have been a no-brainer, first round pick; probably a top three selection. And that's where his ADP is headed right now. Sure, there's talk about MLB filing an appeal in federal court which might slow his ascension for about a week, but in the end, the ban will be gone and Braun will take his rightful place at the top of the rankings. If you haven't drafted yet, you can probably expect to see him gone within the first three picks.
Kendrys Morales, 1B LAA
Current ADP: 220.34 Recent Trend: -2.5|PERCENT|
With the signing of Albert Pujols, there have been plenty that have avoided the likes of Morales and some of his fellow 1B/DH/OF cohorts on the team. Questions of health and playing time have driven fantasy owners away, leaving Morales – once a 30-plus HR hitter with rising potential – as an 18th or 19th round flier for those looking to beef up their corner infield depth. But as spring continues and more and more glowing reports come in from Mike Scioscia, Morales is going to start to climb the ADP charts soon.
Scioscia recently stated that Morales is on track to play in games during the second week of spring training and will be running the bases very soon. Once he starts running and additional reports come in with no talk of setbacks, you should start seeing an increase in ADP. With full health, he will be the team's primary DH and will easily become a trendier pick. A bit of a risk? Sure. But the upside is still massive.
Bryan LaHair, 1B/OF CHC
Current ADP: 229.50 Recent Trend: +6.3|PERCENT|
LaHair is easily losing his sleeper status with each passing day. When it was announced that Anthony Rizzo would begin the season in Triple-A, LaHair's value got a nice boost. He's actually gone from being a 28th round afterthought to a 19th or 20th round depth guy. Now, manager Dale Sveum is not only talking about Rizzo staying in the minors all year, but also about batting LaHair in the cleanup spot which should send him up the rankings even further. A lot of people are looking at his last three seasons in Triple-A and are under the belief that something has clicked for the now 29-year old slugger; like a Mike Morse late-bloomer type guy. I certainly won't argue with them as I've been saying it for months now.
Ian Stewart, 3B CHC
Current ADP: 401.19 Recent Trend: N/A
Sticking with the Cubs here, it looks like Stewart will start to turn a few more heads with word from Sveum that he will not be in a platoon at third base. "Stewart's going to play," Sveum said. "These things are all left up to them and how they're doing at the time. But there is no platoon situation in mind at all for anybody right now." Obviously he's leaving the door open, but news of a full-time job this early is big. Stewart was a prized pick in the Rockies organization and there are several who believe the fresh start will do him a world of good. He's gone undrafted in numerous leagues, but given the lack of depth at the position, he should start climbing the ADP charts.
Danny Espinosa, 2B WAS
Current ADP: 147.82 Recent Trend: 2.3|PERCENT|
Espinosa is currently the 12th second baseman off the board but is being left until approximately the middle of the 12th round. But news from Nats' camp the other day citing that Espinosa will play some games at shortstop this spring could vault him up the charts a little bit. It's been long speculated that the Nationals were shopping Ian Desmond around the league with the hopes of moving Espinosa over to short and bring Steve Lomardozzi up the play the keystone and now they're adding some fuel to the fire. The team is saying that it's just in case of an injury, but you should be reading between the lines here. With the potential of adding shortstop eligibility, Espinosa's ADP could start to climb even more.
We'll continue to look at more possible ADP risers over the next few weeks. For now though, we're going to let these ADP trends marinate over the weekend and we'll jump on some more analysis then. Good luck!
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire,FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at [email protected].