The debate over when to draft starting pitching is a regular occurrence each and every year.  On one hand, you've got people telling you that you need an ace to anchor your rotation; that without top flight pitching your team will struggle in both roto and head to head competition.  On the other side, you've got people telling you to wait on starting pitching;  that the position is so deep that you can build a quality rotation without investing a top pick in a starter.  For some, it's an easy decision, but for many, the debate continues and the questions that remain are who's telling you what and to whom do you listen?

Most people that play fantasy baseball turn to the experts.  They log onto all the sites and buy all the fantasy baseball magazines they can to gather as many opinions as possible.  Ask enough people and you're bound to come up with a consensus answer and be ready to play, right?  Well, if that's the case, then perhaps you should take a closer look at some of the ADP results and trends, particularly those from the Experts Drafts right here on MDC.  The ADP rankings for starting pitchers in the Experts Drafts are vastly different from those of the general public's mixed league numbers and if you look at the trends, you'll see that mixed league owners feel very differently than, not just the experts whose advice they solicit, but that of their AL and NL-Only league counterparts.

Top 15 Starting Pitcher ADP and Trends

Before we dive head-first into the table, one thing that will obviously be pointed out is the sample size used for the Expert Drafts.  While in regular mixed leagues we have over 700 drafts worth of data to sift through, we have results from just 8 expert drafts.  Granted, that's not a large number by any stretch of the imagination, but for the sake of preparing for your draft, it's actually enough to make a determination.  After all, how many fantasy magazines are you buying?  How many gatherings of the finest minds in fantasy do you really need to understand what they are collectively telling you?

So the most noticeable thing on the table above is the pitchers' ADP ranks in the expert drafts vs the ADP ranks in regular mixed league drafts.  Pretty substantial difference, no?  In some cases, such as Roy Halladay, the difference is just a half dozen picks, but looking further down the list, you got quite the differential for David Price – more than two rounds in a 12-teamer and just under two rounds if a 15-team league.  On average, there is a 14.27 pick difference between where the experts are taking starting pitchers and where Joe Everyman is taking them.
 
You should also notice that the ADP trends for starting pitchers in mixed leagues is still on the rise.  Every pitcher here in the top 15 is trending upwards.  An increase of less than 10|PERCENT| may translate to just a few picks in the grand scheme of things, but the fact that they are still climbing the ranks and, for the most part, hovering in the same rounds as they were even a month ago, should tell you that no matter what the experts are saying, people love their aces.  Misguided?  Perhaps.  Again, it depends on your way of thinking.  But this knowledge is definitely something for you to use to your advantage when drafting.  If you buy into the philosophy that so many experts are adhering to – that you should wait on starting pitching – then you will be able to build quite a potent offense in the early rounds of your draft while your competition is using their second and third round picks on starters.  You just have to make sure that you've done your homework and know when to start building your rotation.

In looking at the trends for Al and NL-only leagues, it seems like more and more people have come around to the belief that waiting on pitching is the best course of action.  True, the ADP numbers are higher than that of mixed leagues, but that is simply explained by the 50|PERCENT| reduction in the player pool.  However, notice the trends occurring and you'll see that as high as some of these starters are going in single leagues, they are all trending downwards and some by significant margins.  Single league owners know that offense thins out a lot quicker than pitching, therefore, drafting your hitters becomes a much greater priority.

So what to take away from this…?

It's simple.  You've got two choices.  You can believe what the experts are telling you to do, both in their words and their actions, or you choose to go your own way.  The choice is entirely up to you.  But regardless of which way you go, it's important that you gather as much information as possible in order to properly implement your strategy.  If you're waiting on pitchers, then us e the ADP trends to tell you where you should be picking up the components of your rotation.  If enough people are going pitching-heavy early, then you know you can sit back a little longer.  There's no need to panic as they'll stop hoarding starters once they realizes there are no shortstops left.  If you're going pitcher-heavy early, then understand the offensive sacrifices you are making and know when to stop drafting arms.

Personally, I'm gaining an offensive advantage in a mixed league.  With pitching as deep as it is, there is so much quality to be had in the third and fourth tiers that you can assemble quite the collection of arms to keep you at the top of your standings in almost all of the pitching categories.  At the same time, while you're waiting on that, you're drafting the upper tiers in offense and dominating there.  Let's face it, in your standard 5x5 game, most the pitching categories can be won without the elites.   You can match them in strikeouts, you can use relievers to help supplement your ratios, and wins is such an arbitrary category these days, that calculating expected wins for a pitcher can be a real crapshoot at times.  But when it comes to offense, you need the big boys to survive.  No one is dominating the offensive categories with an array of fourth tier hitters.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire,FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz.  You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at [email protected].