We launched a new feature this week where a four-writer panel (myself, Jeff Erickson, Bernie Pleskoff and Michael Rusignola) each provided an overall Top-350 list for the upcoming season (the rankings will go live with an article by Wednesday). From there, we generated composite rankings for a large share of the player pool, while finding outliers with radically varying values within our staff.
In some instances, we were surprisingly consistent with our valuations, but there were plenty of surprises that took place much higher on the list than I expected. A common theme in the disagreement with my rankings seems to be players coming off of career years. While there are many instances where skills growth fuels an increase in production that is ultimately sustained for future seasons, overpaying for a peak year that has already taken place is very damaging.
Let's take a closer look at three early-round outfielders that are at risk for significant regression in 2012.
Matt Kemp, OF, LA - In most leagues, Kemp's 2011 season was the most valuable contribution from a position player and he's atop the Average Draft Position (ADP) report at MockDraftCentral.com as we approach the middle of February. Kemp missed a 40-40 campaign by one home run while slashing .324/.399/.586 in his age-26 season and was rewarded with an eight-year, $160 million contract with the Dodgers in November.
While my three colleagues ranked him first and second on their respective lists, I have Kemp at No. 10 overall due the following concerns. First, his combination of low contact rate (74 percent) and .386 batting average on balls in play (career .357) suggest that he's unlikely to eclipse a .300 average again. Further, the poor quality of the lineup around him points to the possibility of his RBI and runs scored counts falling below triple digits again. Finally, Kemp's career-high 39 homers were driven by an inflated 21.4 percent HR/FB mark. Even with last season's peak, his career average is 15.9 percent, and normalization looms.
There is an elite combination of power and speed here, but there are two outfielders (Justin Upton and Carlos Gonzalez) I would choose ahead of Kemp in the first round.
Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY - Those paying attention to Granderson's first season with the Yankees in 2010 likely noticed the uptick in his home-run total on a per at-bat basis, but that surge did not forecast the 41 homers he launched during his second campaign in pinstripes.
The biggest difference in his 2011 skill set was the newfound ability to hit left-handed pitching. After hitting 18 homers over 751 at-bats against lefties from 2006-2010, Granderson hit 16 in 191 at-bats last season. It is also worth noting that while Granderson racked up 25 stolen bases, he was caught 10 times and may receive the green light less frequently going forward.
Much like Kemp, Granderson is a low contact rate hitter and as a result, is a liability in batting average. Look for a .250ish average, 30 homers and an RBI total much closer to his three-year average (85) than the 119 he delivered last season. While those numbers are still valuable, they simply do not provide enough of a return for those currently investing a top-20 pick in him.
Hunter Pence, OF, PHI - It's easy to be excited by the .954 OPS that Pence produced after his trade to Philadelphia last season and there is little doubt that having better hitters around him paid off in the form of more RBI and runs scored. He also managed to hit 11 homers in 207 at-bats after hitting the same number in 399 at-bats with the Astros. The late-season power surge was driven by a spike in his HR/FB (22.0 percent post-trade, 11.0 percent pre-trade) that appears to be unsustainable given his career norms (15.2 percent).
Even before joining the Phillies, his stolen-base total was on pace for a three-year low and he finished the year just 8-of-10 on the basepaths. The combination of a batting average supported by an inflated BABIP, fluky HR/FB mark with the Phillies and dwindling stolen-base totals suggest that he is overpriced as a top-30 player in some circles.