Analyzing catcher ADP data can sometimes be a daunting task. For one thing, most ADP data assembled does not differentiate between one-catcher and two-catcher leagues. In leagues that require two catchers in the starting lineup, the top backstops tend to go a little earlier than usual and you'll see more of a rush on catchers once the top six are off the board, as no one wants to be stuck without atleast a top 10 catcher leading the way. In single-catcher leagues, once the top six are off the board, the rest become more of an afterthought. With half the league having the position filled, the need for a catcher becomes a little less pressing.
You also have to understand the fact that most people see the position as a throw-away. Catchers pose one of the highest risks for injury, usually get the fewest plate appearances in comparison, and produce numbers that are significantly lower than their counterparts at other positions. Imagine taking the number 10 catcher over the number 10 outfielder because you wanted to fill the position with a top 10 guy? I can hear the eruption of laughter in the draft room already. With so many people dismissing the position as an afterthought, the ADP rankings become somewhat skewed.
All that being said, let's take a look at the trends in Catcher ADP with data from over 720 drafts reporting…
Top 30 Catchers
| Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |
| Carlos Santana | 36.59 | 1.1|PERCENT| | 36.98 | 1.2|PERCENT| | 37.44 | 2.3|PERCENT| |
| Mike Napoli | 45.69 | 2.6|PERCENT| | 46.89 | 5.0|PERCENT| | 49.24 | 7.8|PERCENT| |
| Brian McCann | 50.89 | -0.3|PERCENT| | 50.74 | 2.9|PERCENT| | 52.20 | 2.6|PERCENT| |
| Buster Posey | 59.51 | 0.8|PERCENT| | 59.99 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 59.44 | -0.1|PERCENT| |
| Joe Mauer | 81.78 | 0.6|PERCENT| | 82.30 | 0.8|PERCENT| | 82.96 | 1.4|PERCENT| |
| Matt Wieters | 98.81 | 1.0|PERCENT| | 99.81 | 2.4|PERCENT| | 102.19 | 3.4|PERCENT| |
| Miguel Montero | 102.42 | 2.0|PERCENT| | 104.42 | 0.2|PERCENT| | 104.62 | 2.1|PERCENT| |
| Alex Avila | 108.64 | 1.4|PERCENT| | 110.16 | 1.3|PERCENT| | 111.63 | 2.8|PERCENT| |
| Yadier Molina | 180.09 | 1.1|PERCENT| | 182.00 | -1.4|PERCENT| | 179.48 | -0.3|PERCENT| |
| J.P. Arencibia | 181.59 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 180.37 | -1.5|PERCENT| | 177.63 | -2.2|PERCENT| |
| Wilson Ramos | 209.03 | -0.2|PERCENT| | 208.57 | 1.5|PERCENT| | 211.64 | 1.2|PERCENT| |
| Geovany Soto | 230.19 | -1.0|PERCENT| | 227.98 | 0.5|PERCENT| | 229.12 | -0.5|PERCENT| |
| Nick Hundley | 230.67 | -0.2|PERCENT| | 230.27 | -1.9|PERCENT| | 225.96 | -2.0|PERCENT| |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 232.84 | 0.4|PERCENT| | 233.70 | -0.1|PERCENT| | 233.55 | 0.3|PERCENT| |
| Russell Martin | 233.20 | 0.8|PERCENT| | 234.98 | 1.3|PERCENT| | 237.92 | 2.0|PERCENT| |
| Ryan Doumit | 234.42 | 1.2|PERCENT| | 237.17 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 237.17 | 1.2|PERCENT| |
| Salvador Perez | 236.82 | 0.9|PERCENT| | 238.99 | 2.0|PERCENT| | 243.67 | 2.9|PERCENT| |
| Chris Iannetta | 236.91 | 0.5|PERCENT| | 237.99 | -0.1|PERCENT| | 237.75 | 0.4|PERCENT| |
| Carlos Ruiz | 237.93 | 1.2|PERCENT| | 240.85 | -0.1|PERCENT| | 240.58 | 1.1|PERCENT| |
| Jonathan Lucroy | 239.07 | 0.3|PERCENT| | 239.78 | 0.6|PERCENT| | 241.10 | 0.8|PERCENT| |
| Ramon Hernandez | 239.41 | 1.0|PERCENT| | 241.74 | 0.7|PERCENT| | 243.43 | 1.7|PERCENT| |
| Miguel Olivo | 239.67 | 0.4|PERCENT| | 240.71 | -0.2|PERCENT| | 240.28 | 0.3|PERCENT| |
| A.J. Pierzynski | 239.87 | 0.4|PERCENT| | 240.71 | 0.9|PERCENT| | 242.91 | 1.3|PERCENT| |
| Devin Mesoraco | 240.83 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 239.92 | 0.2|PERCENT| | 240.40 | -0.2|PERCENT| |
| John Buck | 242.46 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 242.54 | 0.1|PERCENT| | 242.75 | 0.1|PERCENT| |
| Kurt Suzuki | 243.94 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 241.73 | -0.6|PERCENT| | 240.29 | -1.5|PERCENT| |
| Rod Barajas | 259.53 | 8.0|PERCENT| | 280.21 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 278.15 | 7.2|PERCENT| |
| Yorvit Torealba | 275.04 | 22.6|PERCENT| | 337.08 | 4.6|PERCENT| | 352.59 | 28.2|PERCENT| |
| Josh Thole | 312.27 | 6.3|PERCENT| | 331.91 | 0.6|PERCENT| | 338.98 | 7.0|PERCENT| |
| Chris Snyder | 325.71 | -0.6|PERCENT| | 323.64 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 323.64 | -0.6|PERCENT| |
As you can see, most are holding steady at their current ranks with very little fluctuation. You've got a little movement between a couple of picks, but really, not more than that. That's not to say that strange things can't happen in your draft. Players can pop around based on different preferences and can skew the whole process, but for now, despite the random draft that sees a relatively unknown jump 50 picks, the catchers are coming off the board in a relatively consistent manner.
While Carlos Santana should remain the top pick amongst catchers, Mike Napoli and Brian McCann have the potential to shift back and forth as the #2. Napoli is holding his position and has actually seen an increase of 7.8|PERCENT| over the last two weeks, but as we move closer to spring training games, we could see a different picture. Remember, the Rangers have the same personnel this year as last and Napoli's playing time was a direct result of major injuries to the infield. Unless Ron Washington insists on giving him more time at first base (sorry Mitch Moreland), the number of at bats could be limited based on his defensive shortcomings behind the plate. It's difficult to not want his bat in the lineup, but you can say the same for a number of Rangers infielders.
The most notable number differential we see here amongst the catchers is the gap in picks after the top four and then again after the top eight. Despite small increases in ADP trend, there is a 30 pick gap between Buster Posey (59.51) and Joe Mauer (81.78) and then a massive 72 pick gap between Alex Avila(108.64) and Yadier Molina (180.09). Unless you start seeing massive fluctuations by more than 50.0|PERCENT|, you should remember that you're looking at a two and a half round difference between the number four and number five catchers and then potentially a five round difference between the number eight backstop and the number nine. If you don't use an early pick on one of the top guys, there is no rush to go and grab someone else. Take your time and build the rest of your squad.
As you can see, based on current ADP and a lack of major changes in the trends, there is a major run of backstops taken somewhere between the 230th and 240th picks. That seems to be the starting point for a run in two-catcher leagues. The top 10-12 are off the board and people start to make their move to round out their roster.
Keep an eye on Reds backstop Devin Mesoraco. He seems to be one of those guys who might be going a little higher than he actually should, simply based on hype and expectations. Everyone understands that he is the catcher of the future for the Reds and no one doubts his abilities. But given the fact that Dusty Baker is one of those managers that heavily favors his veterans, playing time could be an issue. If Mesoraco continues to trend upwards, be careful that you understand the situation first. Ryan Hanigan isn't even among the top 30 catchers right now, but that could certainly change closer to the start of the season.
Biggest Riser: Yorvit Torealba, TEX (+28.2|PERCENT|) – Granted, the jump basically moved him from completely undrafted in all but the deepest of leagues to low end of the secondary catchers that get taken late in two-catcher leagues. But it's significant movement nonetheless. Perhaps people feel that Napoli will be used more elsewhere or maybe he just upped his street cred by punching a Venezuelan umpire in the face. Either way, his situation and ADP trend should be watched in the coming weeks.
Biggest Faller: J.P. Arencibia, TOR (-2.2|PERCENT|) – As I've said in the past, movement under 10.0|PERCENT| is fairly negligible. It's maybe a couple of picks difference. So Arencibia's drop, though largest amongst catchers is nowhere near noticeable in the grand scheme of things. Perhaps some people prefer the high batting average of Yadier Molina and are willing to sacrifice some power at the position. Still, JPA makes for a solid choice if you don't want to spend too high a pick on your catchers.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire,FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at [email protected].