Before getting into this week's picks, I want to evaluate some preseason claims.
After going 8-8, Jacksonville will not win 5 games: TRUE
New England will win at least 12 games again: TRUE
Neither of these were extremely bold predictions, but both went against expectation.
Seahawks will not win more than 5 games: FALSE
San Diego will win at least 12 games: FALSE
After the Seahawks lost their first few games, this looked like a solid prediction, but thanks to a drastic improvement on defense, Seattle is looking at a 7-8 record going into Week 17. On the other side, the Chargers crumbled due to extreme inconsistency on offense. Philip Rivers did not play like Philip Rivers until late in the season, and they wind up missing the playoffs as a result.
New York Jets will miss the playoffs: TBD
Minnesota Vikings could make the playoffs: FALSE
The Jets have only a 10-15|PERCENT| of making the playoffs going into Week 17; they will need to win and the chips to fall in the right places. As for the Vikings, after blowing extensive leads in their first 4 games, they gave up on their season, releasing McNabb and giving rookie Christian Ponder some experience at the helm. That being said, I was way off on this one.
Overall: 20-11-1
Last Week's Predictions:
San Francisco -2 at Seattle: PUSH
I thought this game would come down to the league's No. 2 opponent-adjusted run defense versus Marshawn Lynch, and Lynch did a solid job rushing for 102 yards and a touchdown. That being said, the 49ers' offense was lifted onto the shoulders of David Akers and his four field goals to defeat the Seahawks. Oh, and the line moved to SF -1 throughout the week, so we could consider that a win as well.
Cincinnati -4 vs Arizona: WIN
Finally, Arizona lost a game it was supposed to. Don't get me wrong, Cincinnati is a league average team; but, they are still fighting for a wildcard spot. We had the Bengals favored by 7 and that is how much they won by thanks to a ridiculous play from Jerome Simpson. The Bengals are looking like they may just find themselves as the 6-seed come January.
Week 17 Predictions:
Denver -3 vs Kansas City
Tim Tebow was the anti-Tebow on Sunday against Buffalo, throwing 4 interceptions. While his magic seems to have faded, Denver is still in prime position to capture the AFC West. Fighting for their lives against a subpar Kansas City squad, the Broncos will host a home playoff game with a win or Oakland loss. Tebow will need to limit the turnovers and control the ball with his run game to assure January football.
New Orleans -7 vs Carolina
Drew Brees is downright filthy; the guy slings the ball like only a few can and leads the league's No. 2 opponent-adjusted offense. Heading into Week 17, the Saints still have a shot at the coveted first round bye. If San Francisco rolls over against St. Louis and the Saints take down the mighty Carolina Cam Newtons, Sean Payton will get some much-needed rest for his torn ligaments. We have the Saints favored by 10 at home.
The most accurate weekly projections from numberFire.com based on wall-street style analytics. numberFire outpredicted two of the most trafficked fantasy sites 70|PERCENT| of the time and are 54-55|PERCENT| against the spread over the last 3 seasons.