This is an exciting time of year in baseball. Grab your warm clothes, gather around the stove and enjoy all the rumors and deals in the next couple of months.
The Indians deal for Derek Lowe was really the first log on the fire of the off-season. As much as I couldn't stand the Indians giving up prized prospects Drew Pomeranz, Joe Gardner, Alex White and Matt McBride for Ubaldo Jimenez is as much as I like getting Derek Lowe from the Braves. I know, I know. Lowe had a terrible year for the Braves. I also know he was the team leader in starts. When healthy he has a sinking fastball that induces ground balls. When healthy and right, Lowe is a solid mid to back of the rotation starter. The Indians needed at least one and probably 3 fresh arms in the organization to start games. He's the first. They will pay 5MM for his services. I like the deal and I hope he can make a difference for the club.
Today's trade between the Royals and Giants should help both teams. It was clear the Royals wanted to find a spot for prospect outfielder Lorenzo Cain. After all, he was in the deal that cost the club Zack Greinke. Cain has some talent. He's fine in the outfield, he has a solid arm and he can run. Can he hit? Can he sustain a solid batting average that at least equals that of Melky Cabrera, the player traded to pave the way for Cain? Cabrera had a career year in Kansas City. He hit .305 and had a ton of doubles. He played very good defense. But if Cain should somehow not meet expectations, Wil Myers is waiting in the Royals wings. Myers is having a fantastic fall hitting in the Arizona Fall League. Not only is he centering pitches well, his plate discipline and pitch recognition are resulting in bases on balls. The trade cleared the decks for both Cain and Myers.
Jonathan Sanchez has the potential to be a very good starting pitcher. He proved that in 2010. He has pitched a no-hitter. He throws left-handed, a prized commodity for every club in baseball. Sanchez, however, has not refined his command and control. This past season he gave up far too many walks. When he falls behind in counts, he has to groove his pitches. That being said, Sanchez should be able to succeed in Kansas City. He will have a fair park in which to pitch and he'll be surrounded by a good hitting lineup. I believe it was a good deal for the Royals. And a good deal for the Giants.
I have some concern about Melky Cabrera being able to equal this past season when he plays in the windy confines in San Francisco. Can he duplicate this year? I'm not sure. I think he may suffer some average decline in the national league.
Where will Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder wind up? Good question. Here's what I've heard. Pujols wants to be the highest paid player in baseball. He wants money equal to or beyond that paid to Alex Rodriguez. He is concerned both about the number of years of his contract as opposed to just the amount. But the amount is very important. And he is solidly behind Cardinals coach Jose Oquendo to become the next manager of the Cards. He is also hoping the club will bring back SS Rafael Furcal. While the World Series title brought millions of dollars to the Cardinals, unless one is inside the front office, little is known if the team has the financial resources or appetite to respond to Pujols' needs. This must be remembered regarding Albert Pujols' free-agency. He was underpaid for years. He has been the best player in baseball for years. Now he feels it is time for the Cardinals to right the ship. I think there are teams concerned about the length of time Pujols may want on his contract. That could limit his market.
Prince Fielder is only 27 years old. That's a prime hitting age. Like Pujols, Prince wants his pay day. Where will he go? Who can pay him? Lots of clubs. Let's start with teams with resources that can really use his bat. The Cubs. The Blue Jays. The Nationals. The Marlins. The Giants. In my opinion, not the Angels. They have two first basemen in Kendry Morales and Mark Trumbo. The Rangers have problems other than hitting. They need pitching. The Red Sox are set at 1B. So are the Yankees. So are the Mariners. I'm leaning to the Marlins. Why? They want to make a huge splash in their new park. What better way than to add a player like Prince Fielder? Or even Albert Pujolls. The Blue Jays have said they have the money available when they think they're close to a title. Are they close? These two guys may be the answer they are looking for. But didn't the Blue Jays get burned with a couple of high priced free agents in recent memory? Vernon Wells. Alez Rios. I don't think the Jays go down the mega dollar path again. The Cubs? Now you're talking. Brewers vs. Cubs rivalry! Cubs grab Prince and he plays 1B for years. But didn't Theo Epstein just get burned in the high priced free agent game? You bet he did. See Carl Crawford. But Prince isn't Crawford. Prince is a 27 year old power hitter. I'm intrigued. I think it's the Cubs or the Marlins for Prince. It may not be any of the teams I've listed. But I don't think he'll change leagues. He doesn't want to tempt teams to play him solely at designated hitter. Maybe the Giants. That would be a perfect, perfect fit. Right field splash! They have the $$. But what happens to Brandon Belt? He goes to the OF. So the Giants are on my short list of Fielder suitors. Marlins, Cubs, Giants.
Jose Reyes? Now that's a fit for the Blue Jays. He may be a good risk for them if they can get insurance in case of an injury. The insurance may be far too much money with Reyes' injury history. The Giants really, really make sense. They need a SS. They have for years. They may want to turn the position over to Brandon Crawford, but isn't Reyes tempting? He is. But I think it's the Tigers that have the best shot at signing Reyes. They have money to spend from contracts like Maglio and Guillen that will be off the books. They need a good shortstop with a bat. I like the Tigers as a possibility. I also like the Cardinals if Pujols leaves. I think Reyes will wait until the big hitters are off the board. That could take some time. The Dodgers don't have the $$ for Reyes, Fielder or Pujols, do they? They could sure use Reyes. The Marlins are an option if the want to move Hanley Ramirez to 3B or the OF.
My future blogs will discuss other free agents that are very, very intriguing.
Trying to predict the landing place for free agents is anything but an exact science. Much of it is guess work. What happens behind closed doors in most front offices stays behind those doors when free agency and trades are discussed (unless the team wants to leak a rumor that will be in their best interest). Generally, the real story remains private.
The change of general managers in Minnesota was a shock to most in baseball. Looking at the roster of the Twins, suffice it to say it will be an uphill battle to restructure the club. They are weak in starting pitching, relief pitching, power hitting and defense. That says it all, doesn't it? The farm system is weak as well. Terry Ryan did a great job in Minnesota and he will be the interim GM.
I hope you will follow my Arizona Fall League notebook each week. This week I'll share some thoughts about the Rising Stars Game. It was great to sit with RotoWiire's Derek Van Riper for a few games here in Phoenix last week. I had a great time with DVR talking baseball. In fact, we talked about the Royals OF situation and Melky Cabrera/Lo Cain. Little did we know he'd get traded a few days later. I also spent time with RotoWire's Jeff Erickson this past weekend at the Rising Stars Game. Again, hanging with Jeff is always a great time as we talk baseball, baseball and more baseball.
Follow me on Twitter @BerniePleskoff. I'll have Arizona Fall League updates before and during every AFL game from now until the end of the Fall League season. I also invite you to follow me at MLB.com. Leave a comment there or begin a discussion with me.
And most important---enjoy the hot stove.