As we head on in to Labor Day weekend, the excitement level of those heading into their NFFC drafts is at its peak. This is it. Your research has been completed, you've watched all the preseason games, read all the preseason news, set up depth charts and done dozens of mock drafts. You're ready. It's time to head to the war room and wait until it's your turn to be on the clock. But before you do, let's just take one last look at some of the ADP trends that have occurred now that we have the data collected from 145 NFFC satellite drafts. Here's a look at a whole mess of 'Risers' and a number of the 'Fallers' as well.
Risers
| Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | ||||
| 6. | Ray Rice | RB | BAL | 6.92 | 29.2|PERCENT| | 8.94 | 15.2|PERCENT| | 10.30 | 48.8|PERCENT| |
| 154. | Plaxico Burress | WR | NYJ | 160.87 | 12.8|PERCENT| | 181.54 | 14.0|PERCENT| | 206.90 | 28.6|PERCENT| |
| 156. | Willis McGahee | RB | DEN | 161.50 | 8.8|PERCENT| | 175.75 | 15.0|PERCENT| | 202.13 | 25.2|PERCENT| |
| 100. | Reggie Bush | RB | MIA | 101.29 | 9.5|PERCENT| | 110.88 | 9.8|PERCENT| | 121.73 | 20.2|PERCENT| |
| 20. | Larry Fitzgerald | WR | ARI | 20.70 | 8.7|PERCENT| | 22.51 | 9.7|PERCENT| | 24.70 | 19.3|PERCENT| |
| 165. | Lee Evans | WR | BAL | 168.73 | 7.8|PERCENT| | 181.86 | 10.6|PERCENT| | 201.10 | 19.2|PERCENT| |
| 99. | Tim Hightower | RB | WAS | 101.01 | 11.4|PERCENT| | 112.48 | 6.5|PERCENT| | 119.83 | 18.6|PERCENT| |
| 30. | Vincent Jackson | WR | SD | 32.71 | 9.9|PERCENT| | 35.94 | 7.6|PERCENT| | 38.67 | 18.2|PERCENT| |
| 239. | Matt Hasselbeck | QB | TEN | 214.40 | 1.1|PERCENT| | 216.82 | 16.4|PERCENT| | 252.30 | 17.7|PERCENT| |
| 246. | Dexter McCluster | WR | KC | 218.11 | 1.3|PERCENT| | 221.04 | 16.0|PERCENT| | 256.43 | 17.6|PERCENT| |
| 63. | Tony Romo | QB | DAL | 64.28 | 5.7|PERCENT| | 67.97 | 11.1|PERCENT| | 75.53 | 17.5|PERCENT| |
| 98. | Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | 100.85 | 7.3|PERCENT| | 108.23 | 7.8|PERCENT| | 116.63 | 15.6|PERCENT| |
| 255. | Josh Morgan | WR | SF | 219.74 | 7.3|PERCENT| | 235.75 | 7.5|PERCENT| | 253.33 | 15.3|PERCENT| |
| 256. | Josh Cribbs | WR | CLE | 220.17 | 5.2|PERCENT| | 231.62 | 8.5|PERCENT| | 251.26 | 14.1|PERCENT| |
| 248. | Cam Newton | QB | CAR | 218.43 | 1.1|PERCENT| | 220.81 | 12.9|PERCENT| | 249.19 | 14.1|PERCENT| |
| 32. | Tom Brady | QB | NE | 32.79 | 1.0|PERCENT| | 33.11 | 12.6|PERCENT| | 37.27 | 13.7|PERCENT| |
| 39. | Felix Jones | RB | DAL | 38.83 | 9.6|PERCENT| | 42.55 | 3.3|PERCENT| | 43.97 | 13.2|PERCENT| |
| 52. | Antonio Gates | TE | SD | 53.97 | 6.3|PERCENT| | 57.37 | 6.1|PERCENT| | 60.87 | 12.8|PERCENT| |
| 80. | Mario Manningham | WR | NYG | 83.43 | 6.8|PERCENT| | 89.11 | 5.5|PERCENT| | 94.03 | 12.7|PERCENT| |
| 186. | Ben Tate | RB | HOU | 188.04 | 7.9|PERCENT| | 202.87 | 4.3|PERCENT| | 211.53 | 12.5|PERCENT| |
| 85. | Julio Jones | WR | ATL | 86.97 | 3.1|PERCENT| | 89.69 | 9.0|PERCENT| | 97.73 | 12.4|PERCENT| |
| 258. | Darrius Heyward-Bey | WR | OAK | 220.42 | 0.4|PERCENT| | 221.20 | 11.7|PERCENT| | 247.13 | 12.1|PERCENT| |
| 58. | Shonn Greene | RB | NYJ | 59.34 | 3.2|PERCENT| | 61.23 | 8.6|PERCENT| | 66.50 | 12.1|PERCENT| |
| 145. | Roy Helu | RB | WAS | 150.51 | 5.2|PERCENT| | 158.35 | 6.5|PERCENT| | 168.60 | 12.0|PERCENT| |
| 128. | Lance Moore | WR | NO | 130.16 | 4.9|PERCENT| | 136.52 | 6.8|PERCENT| | 145.77 | 12.0|PERCENT| |
| 75. | Chris 'Beanie' Wells | RB | ARI | 77.37 | 6.5|PERCENT| | 82.38 | 5.0|PERCENT| | 86.50 | 11.8|PERCENT| |
| 13. | Calvin Johnson | WR | DET | 13.08 | 6.1|PERCENT| | 13.88 | 5.2|PERCENT| | 14.60 | 11.6|PERCENT| |
| 181. | Jordy Nelson | WR | GB | 180.14 | 2.6|PERCENT| | 184.81 | 7.5|PERCENT| | 198.60 | 10.2|PERCENT| |
| 261. | Chad Henne | QB | MIA | 221.77 | 0.6|PERCENT| | 223.19 | 9.3|PERCENT| | 244.02 | 10.0|PERCENT| |
Within a few days after the preseason officially began, Ray Rice has been making a steady climb in the ADP rankings. Originally, the top three picks off the board were Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson, but with Johnson's holdout and, lately, Foster's hamstring issues, Rice has started going in the top three in numerous drafts. With the NFFC using PPR scoring, Rice's value increases even more as he is being utilized a lot more in the passing game, in addition to getting all of the goal line work.
Despite missing a decent amount of time in the preseason due to an array of minor bumps and bruises, Plaxico Burress continues to ascend in the rankings. He gives the Jets a bona fide deep threat and a red zone target with a significant height advantage. He's already had a few great moments in practice and a fantastic TD grab during game action that it's no wonder that he has moved up about four rounds over the last two weeks.
When Willis McGahee started getting the third down and goal line work over Knowshon Moreno, he began to shoot up in the rankings. His 15.0|PERCENT| increase from two weeks ago became quite noticeable, and although it's starting to plateau a little, it's still on the rise. There's a chance he could poach even more carries from Moreno who is also a bit injury-prone, so continue to keep him on your radar.
With every declaration from Tony Sparano that Reggie Bush will get the majority of touches in the Miami backfield, he climbs the rankings slowly but surely. Owners are still skeptical of his ability to withstand an entire season of punishment that running backs receive, but he is still able to crack the top 100 overall.
ESPN continues to run that same highlight of Larry Fitzgerald making a diving, one-armed catch giving him a nice boost into the top 20 overall once again. As Fitz and Kevin Kolb work more and more, it becomes even more apparent just how much the receiver will be leaned on this season.
With passing touchdowns equally weighted to rushing and receiving touchdowns, several quarterbacks are making a climb through the ADP rankings. As players like Matt Hasselbeck and Cam Newton are getting more comfortable in their new offenses, they are becoming more trusted commodities while QBs like Tony Romo and Matt Ryan continue to move closer in draft position to the top gunslingers like Tom Brady and a hopefully healthy Peyton Manning.
Some interesting late round wide receiver sleepers are starting to emerge as favorite picks in the NFFC satellite leagues – Josh Cribbs, Dexter McCluster, Josh Morgan and Darrius Heyward-Bey are all creeping up the rankings the more action they see in the preseason. All four have tremendous speed and, each season, appear to be more involved in their team's offensive schemes.
Apparently there is little doubt that Antonio Gates will be a featured receiver yet again in San Diego. He was already a top 3 tight end option, and now he seems to be a little more popular in the overall rankings as owners are starting to consider him in the 5th and 6th round alongside Jason Witten. 2010 may have been a down year for him, but everything seems to be getting back to the place where he should see 120+ targets this season with numerous looks in the red zone again.
Fallers
| Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | ||||
| 160. | Ryan Williams | RB | ARI | 163.23 | -14.4|PERCENT| | 139.70 | -7.4|PERCENT| | 129.33 | -20.8|PERCENT| |
| 300. | Blair White | WR | IND | 248.16 | -15.3|PERCENT| | 210.10 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 208.27 | -16.1|PERCENT| |
| 3. | Chris Johnson | RB | TEN | 3.76 | -7.2|PERCENT| | 3.49 | -8.3|PERCENT| | 3.20 | -14.9|PERCENT| |
| 9. | Michael Vick | QB | PHI | 9.79 | -5.4|PERCENT| | 9.26 | -9.6|PERCENT| | 8.37 | -14.5|PERCENT| |
| 1. | Arian Foster | RB | HOU | 1.26 | 9.5|PERCENT| | 1.14 | -3.5|PERCENT| | 1.10 | -12.7|PERCENT| |
| 8. | Maurice Jones-Drew | RB | JAX | 8.98 | -5.8|PERCENT| | 8.46 | -7.0|PERCENT| | 7.87 | -12.4|PERCENT| |
| 44. | Jonathan Stewart | RB | CAR | 42.82 | -4.6|PERCENT| | 40.86 | -7.2|PERCENT| | 37.93 | -11.4|PERCENT| |
| 7. | Roddy White | WR | ATL | 7.41 | -3.6|PERCENT| | 7.14 | -7.1|PERCENT| | 6.63 | -10.5|PERCENT| |
| 26. | Ahmad Bradshaw | RB | NYG | 26.01 | -3.7|PERCENT| | 25.04 | -4.8|PERCENT| | 23.83 | -8.4|PERCENT| |
| 29. | Peyton Manning | QB | IND | 31.37 | -4.7|PERCENT| | 29.89 | -3.6|PERCENT| | 28.80 | -8.2|PERCENT| |
There's really not a lot of unexpected downward movement going on right now. Names like Ryan Williams(out for the season), Arian Foster (tweeting his hammy MRI?), Jonathan Stewart (Achilles) and Peyton Manning (neck) are expected to see a bit of a downturn with added news of their health. Chris Johnson had dropped significantly…well, significantly for him, that is…as the holdout extended, but with him having just signed his new 4 year, $53.5M contract ($30M guaranteed), he should be right back up there with the top three during this weekend's drafts.
Ahmad Bradshaw seems to be taking a bit of a hit in the rankings with Brandon Jacobs having himself a very strong preseason. Last season saw Bradshaw getting more of the load in the early goings of the season, but as they stand right now, you're looking at a pretty even split. Bradshaw still has the advantage in PPR scoring, but Jacobs could end up getting most, if not all, of the goal line work.
All the action is fully underway this weekend in Chicago, New York and Las Vegas, so enjoy the drafts, enjoy the festivities and good luck to you all!
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports over ten years on a variety of different web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for questions, thoughts, or comments; you can email him at [email protected].