Drafting tight ends is usually split between two camps. On one side, you have those that feel that you are gaining a significant edge over your competition by drafting a top guy fairly early, while on the other you have those that consider the position somewhat of an afterthought and are perfectly content waiting on the position and building up their running backs and wider receivers first and foremost. Valid arguments can be made on both sides and recent ADP rankings will show that most subscribe to the former rather than the latter. With the top 3 tight ends performing like 2nd tier wide receivers, it's easy to see why. So let's take a look at, not only where the Top 20 tight ends are going in most drafts, but who might be climbing up the ADP ladder and might help make your decision of where to draft a little easier.
| Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |||
| 47. | Jason Witten | DAL | 48.87 | 0.8|PERCENT| | 49.24 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 48.80 | -0.1|PERCENT| |
| 49. | Antonio Gates | SD | 51.81 | 2.6|PERCENT| | 53.14 | -0.1|PERCENT| | 53.08 | 2.5|PERCENT| |
| 57. | Vernon Davis | SF | 59.04 | -1.2|PERCENT| | 58.34 | -2.8|PERCENT| | 56.68 | -4.0|PERCENT| |
| 61. | Dallas Clark | IND | 61.73 | -0.6|PERCENT| | 61.37 | -1.7|PERCENT| | 60.32 | -2.3|PERCENT| |
| 66. | Jermichael Finley | GB | 65.06 | 2.5|PERCENT| | 66.68 | 0.3|PERCENT| | 66.90 | 2.8|PERCENT| |
| 81. | Jimmy Graham | NO | 82.68 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 82.37 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 81.61 | -1.3|PERCENT| |
| 99. | Tony Gonzalez | ATL | 101.18 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 101.20 | -1.5|PERCENT| | 99.69 | -1.5|PERCENT| |
| 109. | Brandon Pettigrew | DET | 110.95 | -1.0|PERCENT| | 109.81 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 109.02 | -1.7|PERCENT| |
| 115. | Marcedes Lewis | JAX | 120.94 | -0.2|PERCENT| | 120.71 | -0.8|PERCENT| | 119.70 | -1.0|PERCENT| |
| 118. | Greg Olsen | CAR | 122.13 | 13.7|PERCENT| | 138.90 | 28.9|PERCENT| | 178.98 | 46.5|PERCENT| |
| 119. | Owen Daniels | HOU | 122.88 | 2.3|PERCENT| | 125.69 | 1.1|PERCENT| | 127.05 | 3.4|PERCENT| |
| 122. | Dustin Keller | NYJ | 127.40 | -2.2|PERCENT| | 124.58 | -1.8|PERCENT| | 122.30 | -4.0|PERCENT| |
| 128. | Zach Miller | SEA | 137.16 | -3.3|PERCENT| | 132.61 | -3.6|PERCENT| | 127.84 | -6.8|PERCENT| |
| 137. | Chris Cooley | WAS | 152.25 | -0.1|PERCENT| | 152.13 | -1.4|PERCENT| | 150.00 | -1.5|PERCENT| |
| 141. | Kellen Winslow | TB | 155.48 | 2.0|PERCENT| | 158.62 | 3.5|PERCENT| | 164.21 | 5.6|PERCENT| |
| 158. | Aaron Hernandez | NE | 168.95 | 2.5|PERCENT| | 173.14 | 3.7|PERCENT| | 179.47 | 6.2|PERCENT| |
| 176. | Rob Gronkowski | NE | 183.59 | 2.5|PERCENT| | 188.19 | 2.2|PERCENT| | 192.27 | 4.7|PERCENT| |
| 179. | Brent Celek | PHI | 186.34 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 186.41 | 1.2|PERCENT| | 188.71 | 1.3|PERCENT| |
| 189. | Visanthe Shiancoe | MIN | 195.43 | 0.5|PERCENT| | 196.43 | 0.1|PERCENT| | 196.56 | 0.6|PERCENT| |
| 197. | Jared Cook | TEN | 198.57 | 2.5|PERCENT| | 203.47 | 2.6|PERCENT| | 208.81 | 5.2|PERCENT| |
Similarly to the wide receivers, tight ends have a bit of an increased value in PPR leagues. However, while the above table is for NFL Standard leagues, its structure for PPR is roughly the same. Obviously, there's a little bit of movement amongst the players as some tight ends are targeted more often thus giving them an inherent value increase, but the top guys are coming off the board right about the same place, while the overall trends of where tight end runs occur in drafts is equally similar. Each run may come a few picks earlier in PPR leagues, but the difference in where they go is fairly negligible.
Risers
The biggest increase we see in the ADP trend, 46.5|PERCENT|, comes out of Carolina where Greg Olsen is getting quite a bit of attention on the field. Perhaps it's more of Cam Newton's inexperience than anything else, but Olsen has been quite the target during the pre-season. In fact, Newton has only completed four passes to wide receivers right now and he's still getting first team reps over Jimmy Claussen. Olsen was brought in for his pass-catching ability, so look for him to continue getting a boost in value as Newton continues to look for him as his primary option. PPR league owners will definitely want to target Olsen somewhere around the 10th or 11th round.
It may not show right now because it all happened this past weekend, but Jimmy Graham is destined to take a major increase in the ADP rankings soon. During the Saints' last preseason game, Drew Brees targeted Graham eight times in just the first half with him coming down with five catches for 72 yards. With Marques Colston still nursing his bum knee and with Lance Moore battling a groin injury, Brees could continue to lean on Graham in the early goings of the season. Reports are saying that he is going to be heavily featured in the offense this season, so while he might be going in the eighth or ninth round right now, don't be surprised if he jumps up a level and starts going a round or two earlier.
The tight end tandem of Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski are slowly creeping up the rankings as the preseason moves along. Tom Brady seems to be leaning on them a little more than his wideouts this summer. Deion Branch lined up for roughly 85|PERCENT| of the plays in the Patriots game last weekend but saw zero targets, Chad Ochocinco is apparently not ready for New England's offense just yet, and there's only so many times you can throw to Wes Welker without him garnering extra coverage. Hernandez goes a little higher because he gets more looks as they come down the field and racks up better yardage, but both are favorite red zone targets. If the receiving corps doesn't get on the same page with Brady soon, people could start taking these guys sooner than where they are currently going.
Be careful with Jared Cook's increase here. He's getting more attention during the preseason right now as the Titans are playing around with their passing schemes, but once Chris Johnson makes his expected return, the Titans will go back to what they do best, and that's running the ball. That's not to say that Cook won't have value, but you probably aren't going to get the production you'd expect from a player at his draft position.
Fallers
It's difficult to really list anyone here as a faller right now as tight ends, overall, are going exactly where they've been going over the last few years. Percentage increases and decreases under 10.0|PERCENT| are fairly negligible and nobody on this list is really moving down less than a pick or two from where they've gone all offseason long.
Zach Miller has the highest relative decrease, but his draft position shouldn't fluctuate too much. It's gone down a touch recently as Tavaris Jackson works more with his receivers, but Seattle brought him in for his sure hands and solid route running ability. If the offensive line fails to hold again this year, then Miller could get an increase in targets actually as Jackson looks to dump the ball off quicker.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for 10 years. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy and for questions, thoughts or comments you can email him at [email protected].