We've already looked at some of the latest ADP trends for both NFL Standard leagues and for those participating in this year's National Fantasy Football Championship leagues, so it's only natural to start looking at some of the trends for your basic PPR (Points per Reception) leagues. The differences between PPR and NFFC leagues are pretty minimal right now (NFFC has PPR scoring) as there are only 72 completed NFFC satellite drafts, but with the levels of expertise in the NFFC and the Third Round Reversal aspect of their drafts, you will start to see some separation once the sample size grows. We're not going to go through a breakdown of positions here, but rather just a look at some of the bigger increases and decreases in ADP rankings and hopefully ascertain the reasons for the movement. The full breakdown will come later in the week.
One caveat here to mention is that, while there is plenty of movement on the ADP Trend Report, the ones that have the most significant impact in drafts are the Overall Trend changes of 5.0|PERCENT| or more in either direction. You generally see a difference of about 10 picks (1-1.5 rounds depending on league size) in those cases. The trends that are lower, while maybe not as important in the grand scheme of things, do come into play on the wraparound, i.e. if you're picking 10th in a 12 team league and you want to speculate as to whether or not a particular player is increasing in value and you should take him with your first pick or if you can wait until after the wraparound.
Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |||
WR | CHI | 108.46 | 37.0|PERCENT| | 148.54 | 23.6|PERCENT| | 183.54 | 69.2|PERCENT| | |
WR | ATL | 114.56 | 22.3|PERCENT| | 140.14 | 4.9|PERCENT| | 147.05 | 28.4|PERCENT| | |
TE | CAR | 162.04 | 25.8|PERCENT| | 203.81 | 1.8|PERCENT| | 207.45 | 28.0|PERCENT| | |
RB | WAS | 126.66 | 16.9|PERCENT| | 148.01 | 7.6|PERCENT| | 159.26 | 27.7|PERCENT| | |
RB | ARI | 150.69 | 7.7|PERCENT| | 162.32 | 6.5|PERCENT| | 172.90 | 14.7|PERCENT| | |
WR | NO | 155.82 | 7.5|PERCENT| | 167.53 | 6.5|PERCENT| | 178.47 | 14.5|PERCENT| | |
RB | NO | 168.43 | 9.7|PERCENT| | 184.81 | 4.0|PERCENT| | 192.28 | 14.2|PERCENT| | |
RB | BAL | 8.30 | 6.4|PERCENT| | 8.83 | 7.0|PERCENT| | 9.45 | 13.9|PERCENT| | |
RB | DET | 41.23 | 5.1|PERCENT| | 43.34 | 6.1|PERCENT| | 46.00 | 11.6|PERCENT| | |
WR | SD | 35.54 | 5.5|PERCENT| | 37.49 | 4.9|PERCENT| | 39.34 | 10.7|PERCENT| | |
WR | NYJ | 184.73 | 5.0|PERCENT| | 193.93 | 4.8|PERCENT| | 203.33 | 10.1|PERCENT| | |
WR | NYG | 87.31 | 4.2|PERCENT| | 90.98 | 5.5|PERCENT| | 95.97 | 9.9|PERCENT| |
You'll notice some dramatic movement for some players here as we're now two preseason games in. Obviously this comes from team personnel changes, how well guys look in practice, and, of course, how they look on the field during a game. So let's take a look at this top 12 and see what circumstances surrounding each player would create such an increase in ADP…
Despite the fact that he hasn't seen any preseason action just yet and he declared himself "out of shape" a week ago, Roy Williams has seen a huge increase in his ADP over the last two weeks. He is being listed ahead of Johnny Knox on the team's depth chart and owners are apparently going on the assumption that Williams is a favorite of offensive coordinator Mike Martz and should produce his best year since 2006.
Julio Jones is making all sorts of noise in Falcons camp this year and fantasy owners are definitely taking notice. He is impressing the coaches, building a rapport with Matt Ryan and is slated to start opposite Roddy White once the season begins. With defenses keying in on White, Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner, Jones should see his fair share of targets this season. So far in two preseason games he's got three catches for 42 yards.
With an injury to Jonathan Stewartand a declining Steve Smith, Greg Olsen's pass catching abilities are going to be in dire need for this Panthers' offense. Even with Jeremy Shockey in camp, Olsen is getting the looks as he's already grabbed five catches for 77 yards and a touchdown in preseason action. Expect this to carry over into the regular season.
We're seeing an increase in Tim Hightower's ADP, not for his on-field abilities, but due to the injury sustained by Ryan Torain. Hightower was getting more work with the first team and, because Torain was dealing with a broken hand, more opportunities to catch passes out of the backfield. He started both preseason games and will get the nod next weekend as well, but may see a reduction in time soon as Torain has been back at practice recently.
While Ryan Williams was looking impressive in camp, we saw a nice increase in his ADP. He was even pushing Beanie Wells in the eyes of some people. However, a season-ending knee injury over the weekend, we should expect an enormous drop now. It's probably safe to assume that his drop will coincide very nicely with an increase for Alfonso Smith, Arizona's new #2.
The 14.5|PERCENT| increase for Lance Moore's ADP could run even higher by this time next week. With Marques Colston missing several practices while resting his surgically repaired knee, Moore has become Drew Brees' favorite target in practice. He's only got three catches for 34 yards in the preseason, but that's only because Brees has seen very limited time.
Darren Sproles hasn't seen a huge amount of time in the backfield thus far in the preseason, but with him returning punts and kickoffs, as well as being the complementary back who catches passes, he is becoming a fast favorite of fantasy GMs. When the Saints run into some of the better pass defenses, he could have some explosive games.
Considering he's a no-brainer first round choice in fantasy leagues, Ray Rice's slight but steady climb in ADP isn't surprising at all in PPR leagues. He's going to get the majority of touches from the backfield and will be a great safety valve for Joe Flacco when the receivers are covered. With 51 yards on the ground, 32 receiving yards and one touchdown (rushing), he's already having a solid preseason.
Jahvid Best has an increased value in PPR leagues considering his ability to catch passes and run in space, but he suffered a concussion during Friday's game and should now be monitored very closely. He may take the week off here, thus possibly affecting his ADP, but if it's only minor, then he should be a fantastic option moving forward.
The fact that Vincent Jackson, Plaxico Burress and Mario Manningham have seen an increase in PPR ADP rankings should be of no surprise. Jackson has always been a favorite of Phillip Rivers and in a pass-happy offense, he's an even bigger no-brainer. Burress looked great in his last preseason game catching three passes for 66 yards, including a 26 yard touchdown catch and Manningham, who stepped it up in the absence of Hakeem Nicks last year, continues to be a favorite of Eli Manning.
Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |||
WR | CIN | 169.44 | -32.7|PERCENT| | 114.00 | -22.1|PERCENT| | 88.83 | -47.6|PERCENT| | |
RB | MIN | 163.72 | -23.2|PERCENT| | 125.71 | -2.3|PERCENT| | 122.84 | -25.0|PERCENT| | |
WR | TEN | 206.84 | -3.5|PERCENT| | 199.62 | -7.4|PERCENT| | 184.80 | -10.7|PERCENT| | |
WR | PHI | 36.50 | -4.5|PERCENT| | 34.84 | -2.2|PERCENT| | 34.06 | -6.7|PERCENT| | |
RB | CAR | 42.31 | -4.5|PERCENT| | 40.39 | -2.3|PERCENT| | 39.46 | -6.7|PERCENT| | |
WR | CHI | 116.62 | -3.4|PERCENT| | 112.65 | -3.1|PERCENT| | 109.18 | -6.4|PERCENT| | |
Ryan Matthews | RB | SD | 33.70 | -4.2|PERCENT| | 32.30 | -2.3|PERCENT| | 31.57 | -6.3|PERCENT| |
RB | TEN | 3.53 | -4.5|PERCENT| | 3.37 | -1.2|PERCENT| | 3.33 | -5.7|PERCENT| | |
Maurice Jones-Drew | RB | JAX | 8.90 | -3.86 | 8.58 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 8.40 | -5.6|PERCENT| |
WR | GB | 197.22 | -2.3|PERCENT| | 192.64 | -3.1|PERCENT| | 186.70 | -5.3|PERCENT| | |
QB | IND | 30.72 | -3.1|PERCENT| | 29.78 | -1.8|PERCENT| | 29.23 | -4.9|PERCENT| | |
WR | NO | 36.94 | -3.2|PERCENT| | 35.76 | -1.5|PERCENT| | 35.21 | -4.7|PERCENT| |
The drops in ADP haven't been nearly as significant as the increases have been. The big swings come in the wake of injury, role reductions, and negatively-affecting personnel changes. But with the minor changes, it's usually because someone has moved up in the overall rankings that it's pushed them down a spot or two in drafts. Not everyone that sees a decrease in ADP rank is someone to avoid. Think of it more as a potentially bigger bargain. Here's a quick breakdown of the fallers.
The biggest drop that we've seen comes from Jerome Simpson who lost Carson Palmer to retirement and the majority of his targets to A.J. Green. The double-whammy if you will. Green was targeted five times in the last preseason game while Simpson had zero catches and fewer targets. It seems like this will be the way it goes, barring injury.
As in all other league styles, Toby Gerhart is dropping in ADP as his role as the third down back is coming into question. Lorenzo Booker is a better pass blocker with better hands if Donovan McNabb needs to dump it off and Gerhart is being turned into more of a back-up to Adrian Peterson. His value will only increase if he's getting the work, and right now it's not looking good for the Stanford product.
Randy Moss is still up there, believe it or not, and while he's dropping steadily each week, people are still taking a chance that his retirement will be short lived and he will end up on an NFL roster at some point this season. There were rumors about the Eagles showing interest, but nothing has come to fruition there.
The rest of the decreases are, as I said earlier, fairly insignificant. You've got a few reasons for some of the guys – Knox has Williams in camp, Chris Johnson continues to hold out, and Colston is banged up – but the rest of them are more in line with the fact that other players are just getting selected earlier and pushing them down a spot or two. Ryan Matthews, Maurice Jones-Drew and Peyton Manning should all see their ADP rankings level off with little change closer to the beginning of the season.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports over ten years on a variety of different web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for questions, thoughts, or comments; you can email him at [email protected].