One of the hardest things about fantasy baseball is the sheer length of the season. It almost seems as though we're in the stretch run, and that if you're near the top of the standings, you've largely done your job, but it's not so. There's roughly 25 percent of the season left to play, plenty of time for the frontrunners to fall apart, or those within reasonable striking distance to make up the necessary ground. The difference in many cases will depend more on players' real-life circumstances than on their capacity to put up useful fantasy stats. Consider players like Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano - both recently placed on waivers in the hopes of provoking a trade. If either is dealt to a contender, he could be an everyday player, or merely a part-timer. If either remains, he could lose out on playing time to younger players the team wants to audition for 2012 and beyond.
This effect is compounded by the September roster expansions that allow teams to carry 40 players on the big-league club. For non-contending teams, even veterans who aren't on the trade block will often make way for younger talent. Moreover, because all 40 players are eligible for action, the 15-day DL no longer exists in September. As a result, it's often hard to discern whether a star player has an injury of the day-to-day variety or one that would necessitate a DL stint were that still an option. In leagues with weekly lineups, that can be a major problem when you have no idea whether a player will miss one game or seven.
Later in September teams like the Yankees and Red Sox, both of which are virtually assured of playoff berths, are likely to rest some of their key veterans, though Curtis Granderson, Dustin Pedroia, C.C. Sabathia, Adrian Gonzalez and Jacoby Ellsbury might see extra run given their possible consideration for MVP and Cy Young Awards.
In sum, there's a "Week 17" element to September baseball, and there's a reason why most fantasy football leagues refuse to use Week 17 for their championship games. But because most baseball leagues do count September stats, you have to adapt as best you can. Here are a few guidelines that might help:
(1) Target players on teams that are fighting for playoff spots - the Diamondbacks, Angels, Braves, Brewers, Rangers, Giants, Tigers, Indians and White Sox qualify - at least for now.
(2) Target young players on teams that have packed it in, particularly the smarter ones like the A's and Blue Jays, who realize that at-bats are a type of currency that can either be squandered on veterans whose abilities are well known or properly spent on young players who need experience and the platform to showcase their skills. Players to consider include Brandon Allen, Scott Sizemore, Chris Davis, Jose Altuve, J.D. Martinez, Johnny Giavotella, Kyle Blanks, Brandon Belt and Mike Carp.
(3) Target durable players who rarely sit down the stretch even when their teams are out of contention like Nick Markakis, Ichiro and Bobby Abreu and players for whom the organization has no viable successor like Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds or Angel Pagan.
(4) Be wary of young pitchers, especially rookies, on out-of-contention teams (or teams that have things locked up) that might see their innings limited. Jeremy Hellickson, Michael Pineda and Vance Worley are three examples.
(5) Target talented young pitchers who could get the call in September (and will face a lot of Triple-A players getting auditions) like Brian Matusz, Matthew Moore, Randall Delgado, Julio Teheran, Stephen Strasburg (it's probably too late in his case) and maybe even Travis Wood and Edinson Volquez.