Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in. Okay, so maybe comparing my success (or, more appropriately, my failure) in making wagers to being in organized crime is a bit much, but this is the business we've chosen. Sorry, I couldn't resist, but that's what happens when I stay up all night watching the Godfather Trilogy.
At least I didn't lose any more (hypothetical) money on yesterday's action (or wake up with a horse head in my bed).
Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers
Over 7.5 +100
Brewers 6, Nationals 4
Rationale: Corey Hart looked to remain red hot against Jason Marquis (5-1, 4.08 ERA). Hart was hitting .412 against Marquis – the 2nd highest average against any active pitcher he had faced at least 17 times. After tying Brewers records with 3 HR and 7 RBI on Monday, Hart had 2 hits and another HR yesterday. Mike Morse also had a great day, with 3 hits including a HR, 4 RBI and 2 runs scored. Marquis was 1-1 with a 2.23 ERA in 5 career starts at Miller Park, but hadn't pitched there since June 2007. Zack Greinke (2-1, 6.32 ERA) had been a disappointment since being activated from the DL. The 2009 AL Cy Young Award winner hadn't gone past the sixth inning yet as a Brewer, and he had allowed at least 4 runs in 3 of his 4 starts. The Over was 13-5 in Washington's last 18 games following a loss. The Over was 8-3-1 in Milwaukee's last 12 home games and 14-6-1 in the last 21 meetings between these teams, including the last 2 starts by Marquis.
Reality: Hart cooled off, going 0 for 3, but did manage to score a run (which is all that matters when you wager on the Over). Fortunately, Prince Fielder drove in 4 runs and Greinke helped my cause, despite striking out 10 over 7 innings, by belting a HR. Morse (1 for 4, 1 run, 3 RBI) did his part with his third HR in 3 days.
Cleveland Indians +165
Red Sox 14, Indians 2
Rationale: Despite great overall numbers, Lester had a 7.27 ERA and a 2.02 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He lost a 1-0 heartbreaker to Cleveland earlier this season and, in his 2 previous starts against the Indians, he lost 9-1 and 8-7. Talbot, who had been on the DL due to a strained throwing elbow, was activated to start this game. His season debut came against the Red Sox on April 6 and, although he has failed to make it through the fifth inning of either of his career starts versus Boston, the Indians have won both times. The Indians were 25-5 in their last 30 home games and 6-2 in their last 8 games following a loss.
Reality: This wager was lost in a matter of minutes, as the Red Sox crushed Talbot for 7 runs in the first inning on their way to a 14-2 win. Boston finished with 20 hits, including 4 HR (Dustin Pedroia, Carl Crawford, David Ortiz, Jarrod Saltalamacchia), allowing Lester to coast to his AL-leading seventh win. Lester allowed 3 hits in 6 shutout innings, retiring 15 straight Indians at one point.
SEASON RECORD: 10-12 (45|PERCENT|), - 320
Limited schedule today with only 8 games, but I'll go with the following:
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels +102
Under 7 +100
Los Angeles (26-25, 13-12 H); Joel Pineiro (2-0, 2.67, 1.22)
Oakland (23-27, 12-15 A); Brett Anderson (2-4, 3.18, 1.23)
Rationale: Since joining the Angels at the start of last season, Pineiro is 1-0 with a 0.56 ERA in 2 starts versus the A's in Anaheim. That included a 4 hitter in a 4-0 victory last May. Anderson, who faced Pineiro earlier this month, is 0-3 with a 5.04 ERA in 5 starts since defeating Seattle on April 24, and 0-1 with a 5.84 ERA in 2 career starts at Angel Stadium. Oakland is in the bottom third of the majors with a .237 batting average, and Anderson has been the victim of poor run support, as the A's have only scored 7 runs for him. Oakland is 1-7 in their last 8 games, while Los Angeles is 10-2 in Pineiro's last 12 home starts. The Under is 32-14-5 in the Angels last 51 home games.