It's only natural that everyone is excited about tomorrow night's N.F.L. draft. With progress being made between the players and owners, and free-agency seemingly alive-and-well thanks to the courts, the draft marks the beginning of fantasy football season for diehards like me. Soon, if talks go well, players will report to camp and before you know it, fantasy drafts will be taking place again.
But, unless you play in a dynasty or keeper league that allows you to draft and hold-on to players for several years, the N.F.L. draft has (in my humble opinion) very little impact on fantasy football drafts this season. Sure, beefing up an offensive line may help an established quarterback or running back which, in turn, might help an established receiver. Or, shoring-up a defensive unit might lead to more turnovers and better field position for that team's offense. But, from a fantasy perspective, that is quite a reach.
Most fantasy football owners focus on the skill position players being drafted, hoping to discover the next Adrian Petersen or Chris Johnson. In truth, those players are the exception, not the rule. In the past three years, 26 skill position players (QB, RB, WR) were selected in the first round of the draft. So, how many of them made a real fantasy impact in their first year? Exactly six (and none in 2010)!
2008 - 2010 Draft – Round 1 – Skill Position Impact Players
Percy Harvin (WR, Vikings – 2009, #22)
Chris Johnson (RB, Titans – 2008, #24)
Knowshon Moreno (RB, Broncos – 2009, #12)
Hakeem Nicks (WR, Giants – 2009, #29)
Jonathan Stewart (RB, Panthers – 2008, #13)
Chris Wells (RB, Cardinals – 2009, #31)
Of these six, only four followed their rookie season with another solid performance and, other than Johnson, none of these players are what I want to build my fantasy team around.
Sure, a few first round picks have gone on to produce in their second or third season, including Rashard Mendenhall and Darren McFadden, but that does a fantasy owner little good for the current season. And, for every Chris Johnson you may draft, there are half-a-dozen others that will be a wasted spot on your roster (remember CJ Spiller and Jahvid Best?).
Here are the other 20 first round skill position players selected over the past three years:
Jahvid Best (RB, Lions – 2010, #30)
Sam Bradford (QB, Rams – 2010, #1)
Kenny Britt (WR, Titans – 2009, #30)
Donald Brown (RB, Colts – 2009, #27)
Dez Bryant (WR, Cowboys – 2010, #24)
Michael Crabtree (WR, 49'ers – 2009, #10)
Joe Flacco (QB, Ravens – 2008, #18)
Josh Freeman (QB, Buccaneers – 2009, #17)
Darrius Heyward-Bey (WR, Raiders – 2009, #7)
Felix Jones (RB, Cowboys – 2008, #22)
Jeremy Maclin (WR, Eagles – 2009, #19)
Ryan Mathews (RB, Chargers – 2010, #12)
Darren McFadden (RB, Raiders – 2008, #4)
Rashard Mendenhall (RB, Steelers – 2008, #23)
Matt Ryan (QB, Falcons – 2008, #3)
Mark Sanchez (QB, Jets – 2009, #5)
CJ Spiller (RB, Bills – 2010, #9)
Matt Stafford (QB, Lions – 2009, #1)
Tim Tebow (QB, Broncos – 2010, #25)
Demaryius Thomas (WR, Broncos – 2010, #22)
Running back seems to have the best chance of making an immediate impact for your fantasy team, followed by receivers. N.F.L. teams would agree, as 11 of those 26 skill positions players were running backs and eight were wide receivers. The remaining seven were quarterbacks.
So, if you are hoping to find that next fantasy stud to draft this season, I wish you well. But you won't find Cam Newton, Mark Ingram or AJ Green on any of my rosters this season.