This is my list of players I'll be targeting this year. I used the site's ADP values so they may be different depending on where you're drafting. The ADP's referenced from last year are courtesy of mockdraftcentral.com – a big thanks to them. Check out that site when you get a minute. Here's my list:
Jose Reyes, SS, NYM – ADP 28 - We all say we don't take a contract year into consideration, that it doesn't matter. It's probably subjective to each fantasy player but deep down I think it doesn't hurt to hear that about a player. Reyes has shown up to camp and claims to be in great shape and more importantly, healthy. At the end of the day Reyes will be a nice consolation SS pick in the late second/third round or come at a $12-$16 discount considering the steep prices of Troy Tulowitzki or Hanley Ramirez. Go back and compare Reyes' stats (when he's healthy) vs. Carl Crawford. Reyes, when healthy hit on average between 2006-2008 over 15 home runs with 66 steals and 115 runs. After him there's a pretty big dropoff at shortstop.
Adam Dunn, 1b, CHI – ADP 47 - I've written this once about him and I think it bears repeating. Take away the batting average and you can flip a coin between Dunn and Adrian Gonzalez's power numbers this season. The difference is in the 30-40 picks in between the two sluggers and Dunn isn't coming off shoulder surgery. Would it be that surprisng to see Dunn hit 50 homers with 130 RBI to go with a 270 BA?
Yovani Gallardo, P, MIL – ADP 64 – Gallardo is going as the 15th overall SP in most drafts so far. His 2010 season looks a lot like his 2009 season:
2009 – 185.2 innings, 204 Ks, 3.73 ERA, 1.314 WHIP
2010 – 185 innings, 200 Ks, 3.84 ERA, 1.368 WHIP
The ERA and WHIP prevent him from cracking the top-10 despite a top-4 K/9 rate among SPs in each of the last two seasons. A closer look at the numbers shows that Gallardo grew as a pitcher and was the victim of bad luck last year. His .324 BABIP was a career-worst by 25 points and he reduced his HR/9 from 1.02 to .58. Gallardo's FIP (3.02) suggests he was a better pitcher and he shaved almost a whole walk off his BB/9 rate. I'm willing to bank on a career year from Gallardo in 2011.
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS – ADP 67 - Last year there was a legitimate question between drafting Ellsbury (ADP 17) or the aforementioned Carl Crawford (ADP 15). This year, they land on the same team with the same upside possibilities. The difference is Ellsbury is going around 50 picks lower and has more upside with speed while Crawford has more power. Remember that Ellsbury hit over .300 with 70 steals only two seasons ago.
Billy Butler, 1B, KC – ADP – 83 - Think back to last year's sleeper's lists. Weren't the doubles from Mr. Butler supposed to translate into more home runs? While that didn't happen, his walk rate increased while his strikeout rate dropped. He's going off too late in drafts boards (I've seen him go higher than 100) for my liking; consider him a batting average helper if you grab poor average/power bats in the early rounds. He's still batting cleanup and could improve the power numbers as he'll turn only 25 next month.
Brandon Morrow, P, TOR – ADP 128 – What's not to like about Morrow? He started the first two months walking everything in sight, with a BB/9 of at least 5.14 in each month. Displaying improved control, Morrow settled down the rest of the way never posting a BB/9 above 3.52 in any of the remaining months. Looking at August, he was above league-average with a 14.54 K/9 rate. If my math skills are still intact, that's striking out every other batter he faced. The Jays were wise in shutting him down early so hopefully he logs more than 175 innings this year. Expecting 200 Ks out of him isn't unreasonable. Remember that Brandon League for Brandon Morrow was a fair deal.
Carlos Lee, OF, HOU – ADP 131 – I've done numerous drafts and I usually see Lee go much later than 131. There may be something awry here that I'm not aware of. Before last year Lee posted at least 26 home runs, 100 RBI and a BA of .300 over the previous three seasons. I'm a buyer, especially since he has first base and outfield eligibility in most leagues.
Matt Wieters, C, BAL – ADP 134 – I'm very surprised at how everyone seems to be writing off Wieters so quickly. While he's underperformed to lofty expectations, the pedigree is still there and he's entering only his third season playing for Baltimore. While nothing jumps off the page from a season ago, he did lower his K rate (3.2|PERCENT|), raised his BB rate (2.1|PERCENT|) and increased his contact rate (5.5|PERCENT|). It wouldn't surprise me if we're talking about him as a top-3 catching option a year from now.
Adam Lind, 1B, TOR – ADP 166 – Another player who was drafted much higher in 2010 (around pick 50) who's dropped due to a poor season. Lind will initially only be eligible as a utility player but should add 1B quickly. I'll admit, the almost seven percent increase in strikeouts is worrisome and could cost him some games when lefties are on the mound. He struck out 52 times in 145 plate appearances (35.8|PERCENT|) against southpaws and the Jays would be wise to bench him if he doesn't figure them out. Again, he's a nice CI filler who has to come close but not necessarily match 2009 to be a good value here.
Brad Lidge, P, PHI – ADP 208 - Outside of 2009, Lidge has been a solid closer who has consistently struck out over a batter per inning and put up good peripheral stats. Granted, his GB/FB ratio has steadily decreased over the last four years but he still can get the job done. The Phillies should compete for the best record in baseball so there will be plenty of save opportunities. Grab him if you miss out on the first tier of closers.
Jose Lopez, 2B, COL – ADP 215 – Yes, I'm going there. Everyone seems to discount Lopez for some reason which makes the contrarian in me take notice. No, he didn't have a great year last year playing for a historically bad offensive team in Seattle. The previous two seasons though he averaged 21 home runs, 93 RBI and a .285 batting average. His other metrics – the K, BB rates have stayed the same the last three years and the only outlier I could find from last season is the six-year low .254 BABIP. The injury to Ian Stewart will help his playing time and it'll be a matter of time before he gains 2B eligibility. He just turned 27 and is in line for a nice bounce-back season moving from Safeco to Coors Field.
Jhoulys Chacin, P, COL – ADP 267 - Wasn't there a time when it was more or less taboo to draft a Colorado pitcher? That isn't the case these days and Chacin is one of the reasons. The 23-year-old tossed 173 innings last year so there shouldn't be any type of innings cap on him for 2011. He posted a 9.04 K/9 rate with the Rockies which led to a 3.28 ERA and 1.274 WHIP. Chacin is even worth a look in shallow leagues when he's pitching on the road. His 3.98/2.44, home/away ERA split isn't surprising but the fact that he gave up only 10 extra base hits on the road over 62.1 innings is. With continued growth on the mound and even just maintaining the K/9 rate, he'll be a gem this late in the draft.
Other players I've talked about in the Barometer or blogs that I'm also bullish on and their respective ADPs:
Jay Bruce (74), Manny Ramirez (160), Aaron Hill (170), Brian Matusz (243), Dexter Fowler (267), Joel Hanrahan (276), Justin Masterson (387), Homer Bailey (389)