Stay For a Nightcap! - Moving the Needle

Every night during the season we recap the night's games on our RotoSynthesis Blog, trying to give you a heads-up on what we believe to be the fantasy-relevant events of the day and our spin on those events. In spring training, however, the approach is a little different. Just because a player had a good or bad game isn't particularly relevant. Sometimes it advances his cause for winning a job battle, but at the end of the day, it really doesn't fundamentally change who the player is. Spring training stats are notoriously unreliable, and even how a player is looking from a scouting perspective ("Pitcher X was only throwing 88 mph instead of 92 mph") can be misleading. A pitcher can be working on a new pitch. A batter could be trying out a new stance at the plate. The list of reasons to discount a particular outing is awfully long.

Nonetheless, there can be items found that help move the needle, especially when it comes to injuries or insights on a manager's plans for a given player. Some of those tidbits are from the games themselves, others come from what the manager or general manager said on a given day. Here's what moved the needle for me today.

Pittsburgh 5, Minnesota 2

- The real news from this matchup wasn't even from this game, but rather from the 'B' game, where Justin Morneau made his spring training debut. Concussions are different from really any other type of sports injury, in that there's not an established time frame for when a player can return, among other reasons. Given Morneau's past history with concussions, the mere fact that he returned Tuesday isn't enough to sound the all-clear on him on Draft Day. He went for $16 in this weekend's AL LABR draft, a price well below where he'd go if there weren't concussion-related concerns. I'm probably going to need two full weeks of play before I'm comfortable paying retail price. As it stands, right now I'd pay more for Adam Dunn or Paul Konerko among his peers at first base, with Kendry Morales being on the same par.

Philadelphia 4, Baltimore 3

- Justin Duchscherer made his spring training debut for the O's, throwing two innings. For a player that had so many hip problems last year, that Duchscherer had some pain in his hip early this spring has to be worrisome to the O's. On the bright side, he said that he was pain-free in Tuesday's outing. Duchscherer's rate stats have been fantasy over the recent years, albeit while pitching in Oakland rather than in Camden Yards. If he can get through the rest of spring training without a setback, Duchscherer might end up being a nice endgame purchase.
- Brian Matusz pitched 2.1 innings in relief of Duchscherer, four days after having a wart removed from the middle finger on his pitching hand. Don't worry about the relief role - that was a matter of keeping him on schedule while working Duchscherer into the schedule. What was more important was that Matusz felt no ill-effects from the wart removal procedure.
- Derrek Lee has to see a specialist to examine his sore right wrist. Keep in mind that Lee has already been sidelined this spring while he recovers from thumb surgery. This news bit really moves the needle for me - hand, wrist and thumb injuries sap a player's power, and Lee already had wrist problems in the past. Look elsewhere if you're trying to find mid-tier bargains at first base.
- But wait, there's still more annoying injury news from the O's camp. Brian Roberts sat out with back spasms Tuesday - another very worrisome development given his history with back problems and then neck spasms this spring. Moreover, Koji Uehara earlier this spring had to have a cortisone shot for his elbow. I love his skills (55:5 K:BB in 44 innings last year), but he just can't stay healthy. Kevin Gregg has way more job security as the closer than he has deserved.

Florida 9, Detroit 5

- Joel Zumaya is undergoing tests for a sore elbow and might not be ready for Opening Day. In other news, the sun will set in the West again today and water is wet.
- Tigers manager Jim Leyland said that the starting second base job battle will go down to the wire through spring training, but that it will be between Wil Rhymes and Scott Sizemore, without considering injured incumbent Carlos Guillen. We could easily envision a platoon between Rhymes and Sizemore.
- Alex Sanabia was scratched from Tuesday's start with soreness in his pitching elbow. Keep in mind that his 2010 season ended early with a strained elbow ligament. Sanabia is an extreme control pitcher, averaging just under two walks allowed per nine innings pitched last season. He's competing with Chris Volstad for the Marlins' fifth starter's gig, and without this elbow problem, I might have preferred him to Volstad as an endgame consideration in NL-only leagues.

Tampa Bay 3, Toronto 2

- Marc Rzepczynski got off to a rough start this spring, but he threw three shutout innings for the Jays on Tuesday. However, he failed to strike out a batter in those three innings while walking two. He's battling Jesse Litsch for the fifth starter's job.

Boston 3, Houston 2

- Two Rule 5 picks, Aneury Rodriguez and Lance Pendleton, are competing for the Astros' fifth starter job. Both struggled with their command, though at least Rodriguez got some high marks for the movement on his fastball. Of course, we're talking about the Astros' fifth starter, so at best they are reserve roster considerations.

New York Yankees 5, Atlanta 4

- As opposed to the Astros' fifth starter battle, the Yankees' competition for the fourth and fifth starter jobs has a little fantasy consideration on the line. Freddy Garcia became the latest candidate to pitch well, throwing three clean innings Tuesday. The combination of Garcia, Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre and Bartolo Colon have combined to allow just one run in 20 innings so far. Yankees manager Joe Girardi said that there hasn't been any separation between the four pitchers.
- The Braves' Jair Jurrjens allowed four runs over four innings, but more importantly for him, he was able to top 90 mph on the radar after failing to do so in his two previous outings. This is an example of how the results from the outing are less important than how the pitcher threw.

Houston 5, New York Mets 4

- This was a day of big injury news, and the news coming out of Mets' camp started off the day. Carlos Beltran has been dealing with tendinitis in his left knee - the one that was |STAR|not operated on. He's going to be out four-to-five days. This injury happened because he was compensating for soreness in his other knee - in other words, he's not yet 100 percent healed in that knee, and it's likely that the left knee injury could occur again. Keep in mind that Beltran has already been moved out of center field to right to address his injury concerns, and hadn't played in the field yet in spring training games. Beltran might not be ready for Opening Day.
- Oliver Perez allowed the first four batters he faced to reach. While he settled down after that, he's pretty close to falling out of the competition for a rotation slot.

Boston 8, St. Louis 7

- Once again the big news from this didn't occur in the game, but on the side, where Chris Carpenter threw a successful bullpen session just two days after having a setback with his injured hamstring. There's a lot of pressure on Carpenter to be ready for Opening Day now that Adam Wainwright is out for the year. Frankly, the bigger danger is that the Cardinals and Carpenter rush too quickly to be ready for an arbitrary date. Even with the Wainwright news and a questionable set of offseason moves, the Cardinals still have a reasonable chance of competing in the NL Central, but they should take the long view with Carpenter.

Washington 4, New York Mets 3

- Tommy John elbow surgery recipient Jordan Zimmermann threw three strong innings, striking out four. He's been a pretty trendy breakout candidate in fantasy circles already, and he's at the stage (18 months after surgery) where pitchers typically regain their command. He's begun spring training with two strong outings.

Arizona 16, Cleveland 5

- Spring training scores in Arizona tend to run high to begin with because of the elevation, but it's also been especially windy the last couple of days. Don't read too much into this or any other Arizona score. Or, for that matter, any other spring training score.
- Michael Brantley had missed the last five games with "general soreness" but returned to action Tuesday. He hit .284 with 10 steals after his second demotion last season. If the Indians commit to giving him a full season worth of at-bats, he could be a 30-stolen base guy. He might also begin the year in center field with Grady Sizemore slow to come back from his knee injury.

Los Angeles Dodgers 6, Milwaukee 1

- The other big injury shoe to drop was the news about Zack Greinke's fractured rib, which will force him to miss two-to-three regular season starts at the very least. Greinke is currently our third-ranked starting pitcher at RotoWire. Our updated projection due to this injury will drop him out of the top five for sure and perhaps out of the top 10.

Chicago White Sox 9, Seattle 8

- Dayan Viciedo had three hits and is 8-for-14 this spring. There's a legitimate job battle at third base this spring for the White Sox, but Viciedo was considered more of a fringe candidate after Mark Teahen and Brent Morel. Viciedo still probably should start in Triple-A (the White Sox were dabbling with playing him in left field this spring), but Teahen at least isn't furthering his cause. He committed his fifth error in five games Tuesday.

Oakland 6, San Diego 2

- Ryan Sweeney will debut for the A's Wednesday in his recovery from the September knee surgery that ended his 2010 season. The A's added Josh Willingham, David DeJesus and Hideki Matsui this offseason, blocking Sweeney's playing time in the outfield, at least for now. But Willingham, Matsui and center fielder Coco Crisp are hardly Iron Men out there. Don't fall asleep on Sweeney in your AL-only leagues.

Cincinnati 5, Kansas City 2

- Wilson Betemit had a big second half with the Royals out of the blue last year, hitting .297/.378/.511 with 13 homers in 276 at-bats, but he's entering 2011 without a firm grip on a starting job. The Royals are renewing their emphasis on defense this year, and to that end have put Chris Getz back in at second while moving Mike Aviles over to third base. Aviles also had a strong second half, and in particular a great September. Betemit can't start at DH most days, because the Royals have a combination of Billy Butler and Kila Ka'aihue at first base and DH. Moreover, third base prospect Mike Moustakas almost certainly won't begin the year with the Royals, but by midseason, after Super Two considerations have passed, he'll be up too. So Betemit may never have an opportunity to allay concerns that his 2010 breakout was a BABIP-induced fluke. The experts drafting in the AL LABR draft agreed with this assessment, as Betemit cost only $4 (in a $260 budget) to the Sandlot Shrink's Larry Schechter.

Los Angeles Angels 2, Texas 1

- Eric Hurley was once a pretty big-time pitching prospect, but a series of shoulder injuries has set his career back. He's now a long shot to win the Rangers' fifth starter job, but there's at least some chance he's still viable after throwing three scoreless innings Tuesday. However, like Marc Rzepcyznski, he didn't strike anyone out and walked two, so it was hardly a dominating performance.
- Though the Rangers haven't yet dumped the idea of converting Neftali Feliz back into a starter, it's telling that he'll pitch the seventh, eighth and ninth innings Wednesday after originally getting scheduled to start the game. Derek Holland, who instead will start Wednesday's game, is having a good spring and is a little safer now. Matt Harrison is also having a good camp, as is Hurley. Even if Brandon Webb isn't ready for the start of the season, it looks like Feliz will be the closer.

Colorado 4, Chicago Cubs 0

- Jorge De La Rosa struck out five in four innings against the Cubs. 2010 was a bit of a lost season for De La Rosa, as a finger injury scuttled what many expected to be a breakout season on the cusp of a strong 2009 finish. De La Rosa's walk rate is a concern still, but give me guys that miss bats like De La Rosa, Gio Gonzalez and Bud Norris, and I can cobble together a pitching staff that will outperform what it costs to obtain them.