I must admit I didn't see this coming. Zack Greinke is going to the Brewers.
While most of us were otherwise engaged this weekend with the holidays and football, the Brewers and Royals pulled off a major trade.
The Royals are reportedly sending right-handed pitching ace Zack Greinke and shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt to Milwaukee for a package of players including outfielder Lorenzo Cain, shortstop Alcides Escobar and top pitching prospect, right hander Jake Odorizzi. A Player To Be Named Later is said to be included in the deal. Some are speculating that will be hard throwing right-handed reliever Jeremy Jeffress. If Jeffress is included, I like the deal very much for the Royals. Without Jeffress, I have some concerns.
I have written at length about several of these players, but let's take a look at what the Royals will get for one of baseball's finest pitchers.
Lorenzo Cain has been touted as a major prospect since before the time the Cleveland Indians traded C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers for a group that included Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley. In fact, Cain was one of the names mentioned in the list of prospects being discussed by the Tribe. However, Cain has really not lived up to his hype. Not yet. He is a quick, agile center fielder with gap hitting power. To date, power really has not been part of his game. Cain has been prone to striking out way too much and his plate discipline is not what it should be. He can steal bases with a quick first step and good speed, but he's been thrown out too much because of a lack of technique. Cain plays very good defense and he hasn't reached his ceiling in that area. He has much to learn from veteran coaches and by playing more innings in the outfield. This coming season, Cain was supposed to be challenging Carlos Gonzalez for the CF job in Milwaukee. Now he may be in the mix in Kansas City, although they have a boat load of outfielders they will bring to camp.
Those who have read my work know how much I admire the defensive ability of Alcides Escobar. In the past I have indicated that Escobar reminds me of a young Omar Vizquel. That's high praise, to say the least. Escobar makes playing shortstop look very easy. He has quick, soft hands and range that is outstanding to both sides. His strong and accurate arm complete the total picture. The Royals are getting a gem of a middle infielder to assist their young and promising prospect pitching staff. So far, Escobar has had difficulty hitting high quality pitching at the major league level. He has good hands and good habits, but he hasn't mastered the changes of speeds and different eye levels he is seeing as his career progresses. I've also been disappointed that Escobar is not trying to steal when he gets on base. His speed is an asset that is being neglected. Perhaps that will change in Kansas City. To me, he's the key to the whole deal.
Jake Odorizzi was a former first round sandwich pick in the 2008 first year player draft. He's only 21 years old and he's projected to be a prime starting pitching option. He's a power pitcher with a fastball that ranges from 88-94. He has three other pitches to support the heater. His second best pitch is a low 80's curve that changes hitters balance and induces swings and misses. A change-up and slider complete his repertoire. Those pitches are still in development and need more work. Odorizzi projects to be a middle of the rotation starter, but he'll have to compete with a host of Royals prospects to get attention. Odorizzi was an important part of the deal so he will get his chance to impress the brass.
If indeed Jeffress is included in the deal, the Royals will be getting a true back end of the bullpen power pitcher. Jeffress has a chance to close in the major leagues. In the Arizona Fall League, he hit 101 on the radar gun during the league's all star game in November. Jeffress has been suspended for repeated use of banned substances and is faced with proving himself completely free of illegal substance demons. I thought Jeffress had a chance to close for the Brewers, but apparently they are looking elsewhere. If Jeffress is the last man to be named in the deal, in my opinion it could tip the trade in the direction of Kansas City.
While Greinke is tough to replace as a starting pitcher, the Royals are loaded with great arms including John Lamb, Mike Montgomery, Aaron Crow, and others. There are so many arms in the Royals system it will be difficult for them to find work for each. So, while no team wants to lose a Zack Greinke the defensive help realized by gaining Escobar and Cain are positive moves for the club.
I have never been a fan of Betancourt. He brings a light bat (if that) and little range. He has declined over the years and he was a caretaker at SS for Kansas City while they looked for their next full time quarterback for their infield. The Royals have been trying to solve middle-infield problems for quite some time. Betancourt was not the answer. They found the answer in Escobar-at least the SS part.
Bottom line? The market for Zack Greinke may not have been as deep as Kansas City would have liked. Greinke should excel in the less than hectic environment of Miller Park. He should stabilize what may now be a good pitching staff with Yovanni Gallardo and Shaun Marcum. Gallardo now gets a bit of a breather by probably moving down a notch in the rotation. It should help.
The Brewers can go for the gusto now with an improved starting pitching staff to go along with the big bats of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. I do see a glaring need for bullpen help, but the off season is really just heating up. There are plenty of arms out there to corral. I wouldn't put it past the Brewers to go get some help for the pen via free agency. This trade may have greatly improved their chances in the National League Central. It certainly isn't everyday that a team can add a starting pitcher with the credentials of Zack Greinke.