Anxiously awaiting the start of Week 1, I thought I'd gander at some of the possible wagers one could make heading into this NFL season. There's a rumor at some point I held wagering very close to the vest as a very lucrative way to make money and it was not on the bettor side. Alas, again that's a rumor from over a decade ago and now being a family man with kids and a wife to support me, I look at these only in fun.
I take into account that Vegas knows a lot. Much more than the average Joe will ever know. That being said, it can be profitable to look at what Vegas thinks the average Joe will do on a certain bet and wager against that. One of the greatest examples is the college championship football game of Oklahoma vs. USC in 2005. Oklahoma (+3) was the underdog, yet everyone jumped on them. Right up until game time everyone dumped on Oklahoma and the spread actually moved six points to where USC was +3. A six point swing, something you'd be lucky to get on a two-team teaser. As a rule, I tend to be the contrarian and I always recommend going against the way the spread is moving |STAR|if|STAR| its three points or more without reason (i.e. critical injury, suspension, etc.). It was never in doubt, USC won 55-19.
Does that happen in the NFL? It did in the Super Bowl. The over/under (which I called both NO and under - stop bragging jackass!) started low and went up three points. Therefore I loved the under. That came in although the scoring picked up later in the game and was in question.
I think Vegas counts on the average Joe to look at last year's numbers and take them to heart most (but not all) of the time. The Patriots had a high over/under during the 2008 season before Brady got hurt (don't remember exactly what the O/U was after they won 16 games the previous season). As a general rule, go under on the SB champs (see 2010 Giants) and high on teams that did poorly the previous season. Lastly, take advantage of casinos or websites that don't update their info and have Ben Tate listed as +600 to win offensive rookie of the year. Here's my take on some interesting wagers heading into the season as the calendar turns to September.
First and possibly the wager I like the most, the Lions over five wins. Here's my "go high when a weak team finished poorly last season" wager. This is twice as many wins as they've had the last two seasons combined. In fact, they've gone over this total twice in the last nine years. So this makes this a trap bet, which I love to go against. Matthew Stafford is rising, Jahvid Best appears awesome and Calvin Johnson has the upside to finish as the top WR in the league. The defense is improved under Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch. Yes, they play in a tough division but the Bears are prone to mistakes and I'm beginning to think Brett Favre might not make it through this whole season. If they get five wins (St.Louis, Buffalo, TB and two division wins) they'll push. I think they'll do better.
Keeping in the division, I'll go Minnesota under 9.5 wins. Again, not convinced Brett Favre will stay healthy, Sidney Rice might be back before Thanksgiving, Percy Harvin might be done with headaches and most importantly, Brad Childress is an idiot. Looking at the road schedule, I don't like games at the Jets, Pats, Washington, New Orleans or Philadelphia. Don't forget they eeked two wins last year en route to 12 victories, so given that and everything else stated, I'll go under.
I like the Tennessee Titans over 8.5 wins. A little. They went 8-2 under Vince Young down the stretch who will be the X factor if they get the over. They're in a tough division and Chris Johnson will have to stay healthy.
St Louis Rams, over 4.5 wins. Again, taking a team with six wins over the last three seasons is a contrarian point of view. The number screams "go under!" First, Steven Jackson is awesome. Expect at least eight TDs out of him this year. While there's no elite #1 WR, I'm not sure there has been the last few years. The difference will be Sam Bradford who looked nothing short of spectacular. Steve Spagnuolo saw the Giants defense (granted some injuries/retirement) go from the squad who shut down the Patriots in the Super Bowl to last year's debacle. It's not a tough division so they get Seattle (twice), Arizona (twice), Oakland, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Detroit, and Carolina. That's not even calling for a big upset with the rest of the schedule.
TD totals-In full disclosure these wagers are made with the knowledge that each player has to play in one regular season game. So if it's +10000 for Adrian Peterson to have more rushing TDs that Kareem Huggins, jump on K-Hugs.
DeSean Jackson (-1.5) vs. Michael Crabtree (+1.5). Let's look at last season's totals – Jackson had 10, Crabtree had two (albeit it in only 11 games). So who do I want? Crabtree of course. He's had a full offseason to learn the playbook and work with Alex Smith (who's never had a legit #1 WR). Kevin Kolb looked great in two games of work last year but that was against the Chiefs and in a game where they played prevent (against NO) most of the time (which usually prevents you from winning). Teams will be locked in on Frank Gore and Vernon Davis initially so Crabtree will benefit. My image of Crabtree's catch against Texas in college might be swaying my pick here.
Passing yards. Again, look past last year's number before wagering on these.
Peyton Manning -300.5 yards vs. Tom Brady +300.5 yards. Hmm this is interesting. In the last three years, Brady has been better than this mark in the two years he wasn't hurt. This is a big number, especially with Manning being older. Feels like a trap but NE's running game is horrible and I'd side with Brady here but not too much.
Jay Cutler -325.5 vs. Kyle Orton +325.5. Outside of an injury (which can happen to Mike Martz's QBs), love, love, love Cutler here. Last year Cutler had 3,666 passing yards while Orton had more with 3,802. So this discrepancy in yardage seems weird considering the wager. Enter Mike Martz. Exit Brandon Marshall. Enter three receivers in Chicago with another year under their belt and are now healthy. Enter Knowshow Moreno and Correll Buckhalter, neither of whom are a #1 RB. Also, Orton has also shown a reckless abandon when stopping the opposing defense with turnovers this preseason. On a serious note, I'm not sold on Josh McDaniels, at all as a head coach. Maybe Tebow enters the equation late in the season despite Orton's contract extension if they're out of the playoff picture (which will happen, trust me). Note that the Bengals (Antonio Bryant) and Tampa Bay (Derrick Ward) have cut ties knowing they owed them money.
Matt Cassel +700.5 vs. Tom Brady – 700.5. First look this isn't a question. A second look may see something deeper. Cassel threw for 2924 last year with KC which is a big deficit from 4398 that Brady threw. So the difference of 1,474 yards looks ludicrous. Of course I'll go with Cassel here with the second look. It's not a knock on Brady; rather a backing of Cassel. The guy has Charlie Weis as his coordinator, Dwayne Bowe has showed up in excellent shape (and hopefully won't be suspended for violating the SAP), and Jamaal Charles is untouchable in the open field. This is too big of a number to turn down.
Rushing yards. Again, not overreacting to last year (yes beating Secretariat with that note) as you'll see on my picks.
Ryan Mathews +150.5 vs. Steven Jackson -150.5. Bah, remember when I said I saw eight TDs out of SJax? I still do. However, Jackson rushed for 1,416 yards last year which was remarkable. How remarkable? It was almost 400 yards most than any of his prior two seasons, which were predicated on his health. So we have an injury concern against a rookie with no miles in a great running system plus 150.5 yards. I don't like betting against a guy and hoping he's injured but there's a real possibility that even if they both play the 16 games that Mathews wins here (which is what you should expect when wagering – both stay healthy).
Receiving yards.
Randy Moss -25.5 vs. Miles Austin +25.5. I'm throwing this in since I think it's very interesting. Miles got 1,320 yards last year and was an unknown early on, doing little the first four weeks of the season. Moss totaled 1,264 last year which was his best total other than one year out of the last six. Moss is 33.5, Miles is 26.2. If Revis signs, Moss faces the Jets twice, Austin doesn't. I'm going Austin here but barely.
Calvin Johnson is +1000 to win the receiving title. I like this enough to throw a loose bill from my wallet on (I don't carry 50s or 100s; well usually).
Lastly but not leastly. Some props that I found interesting at nice odds.
Top offensive rookie – I like C.J. Spiller (+800), Montario Hardesty (+1500), Jahvid Best (+650) and Sam Bradford (+800). Minor play here, left off Ryan Mathews (+450) and Dez Bryant (+450) on purpose. I wouldn't go big here (love Mathews); but the Bryant and the Mathews odds should tell you what Vegas thinks about their prospects.
Top defensive rookie – I'd go Eric Berry (+450), Ndamukong Suh (+450), Earl Thomas (+750) and Gerald McCoy (+750). Basically you're getting four players vs. the field at even money. Take these four as the defense is typically an easier call than the offense.
My final note. I posted this as a guide/interesting (I hope) piece about wagering. As I said earlier (I think I did) I don't condone gambling |STAR|where|STAR| it's not legal and it should be done within limits. I like these wagers as there are a season long conquest as is a fantasy league. Not day-to-day by any means. Take my advice as it is – just advice. I've tried to explain things outside of what they appear to be and would welcome intelligent disagreement with what I've written and spent a few hours analyzing. Never, ever get into the rhythm of everyday gambling as it can be a curse to all of your relationships, friends or family. Public service announcement over. That being said and if you know me I might welcome a sidebet here and there if you see fit |STAR|and|STAR| know you're in my circle of trust. Good luck this season.