The thieving Angels. It's an oxymoron like jumbo shrimp. Soft spikes. Black light. Married life (I hope the Mrs. doesn't read this). You get the picture. What the Angels pulled off today was amazing; I'm still trying to wrap my head around it for a bunch of reasons. I'm sure I'll miss some angles but I'll try to be as complete as possible.
Basically, the Angels pulled off a coup by getting Dan Haren for very little. I could understand if he had a heavy contract (he's owed $33 million over the next two years with a |STAR|club|STAR| option for 2013) but that to me is more than reasonable for a pitcher of his talent. There's been conflicting reports on Roy Oswalt's demands for the option year on his contract ($16 million); a team could potentially take on $38 million for his salary. Contracts aside and given their ages, I'd want Haren without thinking twice over Roy. The money means even less considering that Haren isn't a three-month rental like Cliff Lee. Justin Smoak is easily worth more than Saunders, not to mention the other young arms in the Texas system that could have dealt for him. Everything outside Haren's 4.60 ERA screams this is due for correction. His BABIP is .350 (career .304), his xFIP is 3.38, his LOB|PERCENT| is the lowest in the last six years, HR/FB ratio is the highest in his career and his K/9 rate is the highest of his career. I love him as a buy-low like a fat kid loves cake.
I'll give Arizona the benefit of the doubt for the moment. They consider themselves rebuilding so giving up their best player for future prospects could make sense. In the last week alone we've seen David DeJesus and Ben Sheets go down with injuries that have made them worthless on the trade market. So dealing Haren now would make sense if he threw his arm out in his next start. The problem is Haren isn't too much of an injury risk since he's thrown at least 216 innings each of the last five seasons. I'd expect the asking price of the remaining starting pitchers to get bumped and we may see some guys get put on the market that were previously thought off limits.
Joe Saunders appears to be the centerpiece of the deal. Yes, that Joe Saunders. The guy who has had one season with an ERA below 4.44. The guy who has had the same one season with a WHIP below 1.415. The guy who barely strikes out one batter over every two innings pitched. Again, you get the picture. The truth is Saunders is 29 and is at best a fifth, maybe a fourth starter on a playoff team. He's now going to a hitter's park with a bullpen less than stellar. I'm being extremely nice there in that description of the bullpen.
Let's look at the other pieces of the trade. Rafael Rodriguez has the |STAR|upside|STAR| of possibly a setup man, posting a 30:15 K:BB ratio over 50.1 Triple-A innings. Patrick Corbin was a second round pick last year and has put up solid numbers at High-A Rancho Cucamonga, albeit as a 21-year-old. Neither have the upside of a Mike Trout or Sean O'Sullivan who was traded for Alberto Callaspo last week. Better players could have been included by the Halos.
So what exactly could have Arizona gotten from other teams? A lot more, a lot. Many names have been thrown around but Ben Sheets as previously mentioned is hurt - surprise, surprise - and Cliff Lee is gone. I'd guess Ted Lilly will definitely go now and the chances Zack Greinke changing zip codes are increased. So who need pitching? Let's look at some teams.
I'll start with the Yanks. After today, it's obvious Philip Hughes hasn't been the same pitcher since April and as I noted last Tuesday he seems to be cursed by the long ball at Yankee Stadium. Andy Pettitte is hurt but could be coming back sooner than expected. What could have the Yanks offered in return? Well they seem set on keeping Jesus Montero and with a swing and name like that, who could blame them. I actually believe this considering they didn't give up any big names at last year's deadline and won the World Series. Personally, I would have given up Joba (whose head the Yanks have screwed with too much) and a choice of a fringe prospect like Ivan Nova or Zach McAllister to get him.
What about the Rays? They're confusing to say the least. Gabe Kapler sits on the bench with a start or two a week depending on the platoon/matchup while uber-prospect Desmond Jennnings waits at Durham. Jeremy Hellickson with the "nothing left to prove at Triple-A" label waits in the wings while Andy Sonnanstine or worse yet Lance Cormier occupy a roster spot for the team. Trading Davis would have made a ton of sense; he's been up and down this year but only projects as a number two or three starter down the road. BJ Upton could be dealt and, just a gut feeling, doesn't seem like he's going to work out for the Rays. Hellickson is an insurance policy if any of the regulars get hurt but this team would probably be the odds-on favorite to win the World Series with Haren.
The BoSox could have been wicked smart. They finally gave up on the Tim Wakefield experiment as should the Phillies with Jamie Moyer. Dice-K is an injury risk with his delivery and hasn't been good since 2008. Michael Bowden, Daniel Nava or Lars Anderson (put either him or Kendry Morales to left field and make Juan "the new Jermaine Dye" a fourth OF) would have all been more attractive options than what Arizona got. How 'bout them apples?
The Metropolitans. This would have been too logical, so I'd guess Jerry Manuel would balk at the idea if he had any say. The Mets pitching staff doesn't scare anyone. Something is wrong with "bats in the Pelfrey" and while Johan has been better as of late he's still on the decline of a HOF career. Wilmer Flores is blocked for a few more years by Jose Reyes which makes him expendable or Jenrry Mejia would have been better than Saunders for a team in need of a closer. Sign Haren, sign Carl Crawford this offseason and this is a legit contender.
I'm missing other teams here, forgive me I already mentioned Texas. In fact, if I was even a GM for a rebuilding squad (see Indians, KC, Toronto, Baltimore, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Houston) I would have been on the phone lines seeing what 'Zona wanted. Imagine if the Nationals got him? Stephen Strasburg, Dan Haren, Jordan Zimmermann and Scott Olsen as the first four starters? It comes down to this: I don't think teams understood what it would have taken to get Haren or the Diamondbacks really believe in Joe Saunders. It reminds me of a notice I get in my email telling me a trade has happened in one of my leagues. I look and yell in shock at what little was given to acquire a star. I then think "I would have given a lot more for player X." It's happened to all of us and tonight, many GMs in baseball are thinking the same thing.