I've Got Your Regression to the Mean, and You Can Shove It:

- Livan Hernandez, 7IP, 8H, 1ER, 1BB, 5K. Sure, we can comment all we like that it was against the Royals, but I think it's worth noting that there's a |STAR|lot|STAR| of teams worth streaming against this year. In the AL, I think BAL, CLE, KC, OAK and SEA are all candidates. In the NL, the top "stream-against" teams are HOU, PIT and WAS, and SD in Petco. I'm not sure what to make of SF with their adjustments to their roster and the year that Aubrey Huff is suddenly having, but in terms of runs scored, they're right there, as are both Chicago teams. Actually, upon further reflection, the Royals |STAR|haven't|STAR| been such a good streaming candidate so far, logging in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Apparently they are replaced by aliens in starts that aren't made by Zack Greinke.

Notables:

- I wanted to be able to point out that Bruce Chen had actually been the post-post-post-post-post-post-hype poster child for the Royals this year before Monday's start, with 31 K's in 30.1 innings. But his start, while comsetically ok (2 ER in 6 IP) illustrated his risks more - he gave up two homers and walked four. I still think he has a better chance of sticking than Anthony Lerew once Luke Hochevar comes back, but I also think that statement has a better chance of making Royals fans sad rather than having much probative fantasy value.
- Mike Aviles went 3-for-4 to raise his average to .323 on the season - he's hitting for less power than he did in 2008, but for similar BA's and OBP's. He's also less succesful on the basepaths so far, dropping to 0-for-3 on Monday.
- Gio Gonzalez struck out nine Reds and allowed only one unearned run over seven innings.
- A.J. Burnett was torched by the Diamondbacks for seven runs, giving up three homers. In four June starts Burnett has a 10.35 ERA, 2.00 WHIP and nine homers allowed in 20 innings. Are the Yankees sure that they want to skip Philip Hughes' turn in the rotation week and not Burnett's?

Save Chances:

- Matt Capps, converted (21). Capps allowed two hits but also struck out the side.
- Francisco Cordero, blown (5). Cordero gave up a game-tying homer on a cheapie homer by Kevin Kouzmanoff, but vultured a win when the Reds rallied in the 10th, no thanks to his efforts in the 10th, though in fairness it looked like he got squeezed on a couple of a ball-strike calls.
- Jordan Smith, converted (1). After Cordero allowed the first two batters to reach and Daniel Herrera gave up a single and then a ground out, the Reds called upon Smith (who was closing in Double-A a week ago) to get the final two outs, which he did with a ground ball and a strikeout.

Other Closer Outings:

- Andrew Bailey pitched the ninth in a tie game against the Reds and gave up a go-ahead run, only to get bailed out by Kevin Kouzmanoff's homer in the bottom of the inning. He's had just three save chances in June. Yes, I traded for him right about the start of June.

Non-Closer Outings:

- Tyler Clippard nabbed his 15th hold of the season with a scoreless inning. He's on a Scott Sullivan-like pace in terms of his workload - he already has 36 appearances and 44.2 innings in 71 games for the Nats.
- The A's bullpen has been a strength for them in recent years, but not this year. Andrew Bailey has pitched pretty well, but Michael Wuertz's ERA rose to 7.71 in getting the loss against the Reds in the 10th inning on Monday. Joey Devine hasn't thrown a pitch, and Jerry Blevins has the strikeouts but nothing much else. Once Bailey pitched on Monday night, they felt compelled to turn to Wuertz and Cedrick Bowers, who ultimately put the game out of reach.

Lineup-o-logy:

- Roger Bernadina got the day off from the starting lineup with lefty Bruce Chen starting for the Royals.
- Miguel Montero hit in the cleanup spot on Monday, with Justin Upton back up to third (and crushing it again), Chris Young fifth, Adam LaRoche sixth and Mark Reynolds dropping all the way down to seventh. Montero went 3-for-5 with two RBI and is hitting .413 in his abbreviated season.

Injuries:

- Orlando Cabrera sat out due to his sore ankle. Paul Janish started in his place.
- Brett Anderson (elbow) probably won't return for another 3-4 weeks.
- Both Alex Rodriguez (hip) and Jorge Posada (foot) played on Monday on the road in interleague play, but don't be surprised if each gets at least one day off this week, maybe two.

Transactions:

- The Nats optioned John "strikeouts are fascist" (Yes, I know I'm stealing from Bill Lee) Lannan, dropping all the way down to Double-A.

Stolen Bases:

- Drew Stubbs (15); Cliff Pennington (9); Justin Upton (11); Mark Reynolds (4); Brett Gardner (23).

Caught Stealing:

- Scott Podsednik (7); Mike Aviles (3); Nyjer Morgan (11!) - Morgan was 42-of-59 last year on the basepaths, but he started off 18-for-28 with the Pirates, so this isn't too far out of line for him.

Home Runs:

- Cristian Guzman (1); Mike Morse (3); Ramon Hernandez (3) - his pole-catcher started off the 10th against Michael Wuertz; Joey Votto (15); Scott Rolen (15); Kevin Kouzmanoff (8); Justin Upton 2 (12,13); Adam LaRoche (10); Mark Reynolds (17).