I hadn't intended to take half the day off (my laptop is going Trevor Hoffman on me and I went looking for a replacement), but maybe it's not such a bad thing. I've talked a lot about how getting unlucky, going on a bad rush can mess with your head and impact your decision-making. Well, it works the other way, too. When you're on a heater--and I'm on one now--you can get cocky and start thinking you really do have the PIN for a limitless ATM card, like golfing with Erickson or playing poker with Liss. It can lead to overplaying and overbetting, so a forced short card is the way to avoid that kind of mistake.

No one is as bad as they look when things are bad, and no one is as good as they look when things are good.

Housekeeping: my new project is a subscription newsletter. For more information, check out the attached blog.

ESPN's Chad Millman had some good stuff on baseball betting at his blog. I especially liked the part about how wiseguys avoid big favorites, which is pretty much exactly my approach. I don't agree with all of it, but Millman is really the only guy covering this stuff and he does a good job.

Tonight:

Milwaukee/Pittsburgh over 9 (+105), two units. Keep holding to that number, guys. Keep giving me 9s to shoot at with this team. Please.

Tampa Bay +125, one unit. They're the better team with the Yankees hopelessly dinged up.

Houston +125, one unit. This could just be me being pissed at the Rockies and their inability to play nine innings. What it is, however, is an endorsement of Roy Oswalt and a nod towards the overvaluing of Ubaldo Jimenez.

Going to be a quiet weekend as I'll be traveling. I probably won't have another post until Monday. If I make picks they'll be in the comments of this thread.