Equine Investor's Don Tiger just sent me an article handicapping the Preakness.
Here are his picks:
Contenders:
#7 Lookin At Lucky- might end up being the top three year old at the end of the year, but if that is going to happen it has to start right here. Trainer Baffert hands the reins to Martin Garcia who only recently won a graded I so he does sport a thin resume. In essence, Peyton Manning was pulled for Joe Flacco. My thoughts are Joe Flacco can win the big game if the O-line blocks and the receivers run their routes. This horse definitely was named inappropriately as he has had three straight troubled trips - could it be four? I am not banking on it as #7 is a lucky number. My choice to turn the tables on the favorite.
#8 Super Saver- ok so Calvin Borel didn't pull a Joe Namath and guarantee he was going to conquer Baltimore, but he sure had a grin the size of Maryland that he plans to do it. History says he has got one heck of a chance, he made so much sense Derby day and he actually makes just as much sense here. Borel went on a speed mission last year with Rachel and got it done, and there is little reason to think he might not deploy the same tactics here. This horse looks the part and acts the part, try to beat at your own risk.
#9 Caracortado- really liked the way this guy was coming into the Derby but didn't make the cut off his graded earnings. Homebred from modest beginnings has won his way into the chance of a lifetime, but there are a lot of negatives in his corner. His Figs have gotten worse, the 3 horses that finished ahead of him in the Santa Anita Derby all flopped Derby day, and watching journeyman jockey Atkinson's interview at the draw was more like a kid going to Disney world then focusing on riding in the biggest race of his life. Still, I remain on board as this is my wise guy horse at a nice valued price.
#2 Schoolyard Dreams- hails from the same connections that brought us last year's 3rd place finisher Musket Man. I already have a soft spot in my heart for that one, so it's hard not to like his stable mate. Another horse that started from modest breeding who two back actually bested Super Saver by a neck in Florida. His return race in the Wood was less then inspiring and to make matters worse the three that finished in front of him that day are retired, on the shelf, and got trounced by 19 lengths in the Derby. He does have a fire fresh angle going for him and I feel he is a better horse then at least 6 horses who started in the Derby so a big step forward puts him right into the mix.
Selections: 7-8-9-2
Betability: Excellent, last year's favorite Rachel Alexandra paid $5.60 to win and I had her on my value line at $4.80! This year I expect Super Saver to be value around 2 to 1 so no matter if you like the favorite, a deep long shot, or something in the middle, you will get your wagering value. I could even make a case for Jackson Bend backers who I have rated 11th in my graded analysis.
Suggested Wagers:
#7 to win & place for 2 units
2 unit Exacta wheel #7 & #8 with #2, #3, #5, #6, #9, #11
1 unit Exacta wheel #2, #3, #5, #6, #9, #11 with #7 & #8
1 unit Trifecta wheel #7, #8 with ALL with #2, #3, #6
1 unit Exacta Box saver #2, #3, #5, #6, #9, #11
Graded Analysis with fair value win odds
#7 Lookin At Lucky- 5 to 2, I think he is the best horse on paper, and his only obstacle is avoiding another troubled trip, my choice.
#8 Super Saver- 2 to 1, Borel is riding the favorite on Friday in the Black Eyed Susan (Tidal Pool), if he wins that can he win this? or vice versa? I say he doesn't with both.
#9 Caracortado- 8 to 1, I was on this guy prior to the Derby so I stay on board, only seven winners in the last 40 years haven't raced in the Derby and won this, my hope to beat the odds.
#2 Schoolyard Dreams- 14 to 1, needs a big form reversal, but he was firing bullets in the AM in NJ & PA of late, also lost Ramon for this but Coa is a capable replacement.
#10 Paddy O' Prado- 6 to 1, Kent stated he would have won the Derby had he not got shut down making his move and restarting, Kent also said he was out of gas at the wire, mixed feelings.
#3 Pleasant Prince- 15 to 1, Ice Box fans should hop on board here as they needed a mirror to separate them in the Florida Derby, stone closer will land in some spot.
#11 First Dude-18 to 1, Maryland boy Dominquez stays in the irons which is a big plus and trainer Romans thought this horse would have been a big factor in the Derby.
#5 Yawanna Twist- 20 to 1, another Maryland jock who cut his teeth on this oval picks up a lightly raced runner who has never been worse then 2nd in 4 career outs, the unknown factor.
#12 Dublin- 25 to 1, Peyton Manning gets sent in to run the plays on a horse that doesn't seem to want to cross the goal-line, he does show going up and down the field so maybe a minor chance.
#1 Aikenite- 25 to 1, another stone closer who could run 3rd or 4th to spice up the exotics, but many of these have already soundly beaten him, Pletcher's "B" teamer.
#6 Jackson Bend - 30 to 1, I think he will be setting the pace in here being on top at the half mile. In the Last 13 years, only Rachel Alexandra (2009) had the lead and still went on to win.
#4 Northern Giant- 50 to 1, well bred horse who was dead last in the Arkansas Derby, a true pitch on all tickets.