Not much to say about the last two days. I pulled back on the throttle a little after Wednesday's seven-pick card, and perhaps just in time, as I went 2-5 for a loss of a little over two units. The lesson, if there is one, is that variance can be a bitch: five of the seven games were decided by one run, and I was 1-4 in those.
I had lunch with a friend of mine yesterday, a successful horse handicapper, and I was telling him about this project, its goals, the approach I'm taking, and the 12-unit downswing at the start of the season. He emphasized that anyone looking to do this for real has to be well bankrolled to get through the swings. I know I've written about that, but I think it's worth mentioning again. If you were doing this for real, weren't sufficiently stacked and took a 12-unit hit in the season's first week, you might let than affect what you do after--heck, you might even be out of the game! Having a roll big enough to handle the swings is maybe the first rule of any kind of gambling; back when I was learning about card-counting (academically, of course), establishing a bet size proportionate to your available funds was one of the first lessons after the count itself.
Anyway, it was a good conversation, and I want to relay one other point he made. We were talking about the difference between doing the handicapping yourself, which is my approach, and turning it over to a system. The latter approach is more tilt-proof, because when you have an 0-7 day, you just chalk it up to the system. If it's your insights on the line, it's hard to not take that personally, to have your confidence shaken. I'm only doing this for...well, ego...and I have to say that I want to be ahead every day, I want to see a "+" in the subject line. very much. I want not only to win, but to win because I had the right insight. I can only imagine what it'd be like to have your monthly nut on the line.
Today:
Cincinnati +113, one unit. Jamie Garcia still has no home runs allowed, and no pitcher does that for two months, much less a full season. Aaron Harang's 21-2 K/BB in his last three starts isn't getting as much attention as his 6.02 ERA, but it gets me back on the train.
Baltimore -118, one unit. Lefties are hitting .373 against Justin Masterson, which isn't that far from what they hit against him prior to this year. The Orioles have jammed six into the lineup, which is enough for me to back Jeremy Guthrie.
Minnesota +156, one unit. Marcus Thames, Juan Miranda and Francisco Cervelli are one-third of the Yankee lineup, so we'll take our chances at 3-2 with Scott Baker.
Philadelphia/Milwaukee over 9.5 (-122), three units. Jamie Moyer against the lefty-eating Brewers, with Randy Wolf and the Brewers' bullpen on the other side. I probably would have taken this up to 11. As it is, this is the first three-unit play of the season.
Houston/San Francisco under 8.5 (-110), one unit. This is a very tough choice between backing Felipe Paulino at +136 or taking the under. Consider this a vote against the Astros offense.
Los Angeles (AL) -118, one unit. This seems awfully low. A week ago, this game would have been -135 or so. There aren't five times all year I'll back a pitcher who has walked more men than he's struck out, so mark the date.
The Nationals/Rockies over just missed the cut. An 8.5 at Coors Field with Livan Hernandez on the mound? Really? Come to think of it...
Washington/Colorado over 8.5 (-105), one unit. Ubaldo Jimenez's K/BB doesn't support the low ERA, and you can quintuple that statement for Hernandez.