One game seven down, one to go. Will the Detroit Red Wings's 6-1 dismantling of the Phoenix Coyotes yesterday night serve as a warning to the Montreal Canadiens or just a preview of what will go down tonight between them and their first-round opponents in the Washington Capitals? It's a fair question, but one that doesn't have a simple answer.

Why the Capitals should win:
•    Coming back from a 3-1 deficit is hard enough, but a number eight seed has never done it against a number one seed. Montreal definitely has a lot on its plate tonight.
•    The Caps have the benefit of home ice and a crowd behind them that is perhaps too ignorant (forgive the word; it's not meant to offend) to properly understand the potential of a first-versus-eight-seed upset. That ignorance will likely keep the building rocking all night long and in turn help the Capitals to maintain momentum for most of the 60-minute game.
•    Unless the Canadiens themselves have the ability to stay ignorant as to the significance of the challenge laid out before them, they just may become a bit too overwhelmed. Not only do they have to beat Washington, the best team in the league during the regular season, tonight, but, if they do, they will have the pleasure of facing the Stanley-Cup-champion Pittsburgh Penguins in the next round. Not exactly a reward to look forward to. As a Habs fan, I look back to near the end of the regular season when it was still a possibility that Montreal could finish in fifth place in the conference and face the Pens in this first round. I actually hoped that the Habs would drop down in the standings in order to be able to face the Capitals instead. The Capitals may be a better team on paper, but they are a team that the Canadiens can beat (as proven by this game seven). I'm not so sure the same is true when it comes to Pittsburgh. Thinking like this could prove to be poison if it gets into Montreal's dressing room.
•    The Habs have been playing with fire all series long, most specifically in regards to Washington's 1-for-30 power play. Kudos to Montreal for being able to keep the Capitals's power play at bay this long, but it remains to be seen if the Habs can keep it up when it matters the most. I'm also not a conspiracy theorist, but it seems to me that, if the Habs want to win, they will have to weather a storm of bad calls all night long, as was the case in game six (the first Maxim Lapierre diving call notwithstanding).
•    Alexander Semin and Mike Green, two sparkplugs on offense for Washington during the regular season with 40 and 19 goals respectively, have not scored in the series yet. Again, it remains to be seen if that trend can continue. It is unlikely that both will be left off the scoresheet for a seventh-straight game.
•    They also have the greatest (arguable) player in the game in Alexander Ovechkin. Whenever he's on the ice, Gr8 (forgive the pun) things have the potential to happen.
•    The Capitals are just the better team, finishing 33 points ahead of the Canadiens in the regular season.

Why the Canadiens could win:
•    Montreal has come back from a 3-1 deficit in the not-too-distant past, beating the heavily favoured Boston Bruins in the first round in 2004. That was the first time in Montreal's storied history that the Habs have ever come back from that same deficit (surprising, I know). Andrei Markov, the Habs's current leader on defense, was a member of that team (the only remaining one left on the Habs).
•    Montreal, as an eight seed, has also beaten a number-one seed in the not-too distant past, in 2002, when the Habs beat the Bruins in six games. Markov was a member of that team as well.
•    Montreal has the momentum, having won two straight in the series.
•    Montreal is the road team, and that could work to the Habs's advantage in that they will likely not try to do too much the length of the game, except do the bare minimum to win. Doing the bare minimum (and putting together a good defensive game) and not getting caught up in the stakes has worked so far for the Habs, seeing as they've won two of their three games at the Verizon Center. They also held a 4-1 lead in the other game in Washington, only to let it slip away and lose 6-5 in overtime. This only proves, though, that Montreal has a definite chance tonight.
•    The Capitals will not have the services of defenseman Tom Poti, who underwent orbital-bone surgery yesterday. He has been the Capitals's most effective defenseman in the series, with four points and a +/- rating of +9.
•    The Canadiens have Mike Cammalleri, who has been more effective than Ovechkin in the series, with a series-leading 10 points.
•    The Canadiens also have Jaroslav Halak, who has been the story of the first round, stopping 53 of 54 shots in game six (thus propelling his team to the 4-1 win) and 37 of 38 shots in game five (a 2-1 Montreal victory). Can he stand on his head, back, hand, shoulder, whatever, once again?
•    Despite the fact that on paper Washington is the better team, Montreal has played them well all year long, holding a 2-1-1 record against the Caps (Washington also has a 2-1-1 record thanks to games played in overtime between the two teams).

Clearly, tonight's game will be entertaining, but that's a given. What isn't is who will come out on top. It's hard to deny all the advantages in offense that Washington has and it's hard to believe that Montreal won't be able to look past tonight and consider that all their hard work will probably result in even more hard work against the Penguins, should they be able to pull off the upset. Look for the Capitals to come out on top, but Montreal to keep it (relatively) close.

Bold Prediction: Capitals 4, Canadiens 1, with the Capitals's fourth goal being scored on an empty net.