Entering the playoffs, many expected the Lakers and Cavs to win their series without breaking a sweat.  I disagreed, feeling that the #1 seeds would win but would have to work for it.  The reasons I felt that way?  Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Russell Westbrook.  Last night both 8 seeds defeated the favorites to make their series 2 - 1 entering game four.  And I wasn't surprised at all.

Let's start with the Cleveland/Chicago series.  Just like last year, the Cavs were the best team in the league in the regular season.  But despite the moves that they made to improve their team since then, there are still certain areas where they can be attacked.  The Cavs model has been similar since at least 2006, really: maintain a strong defensive unit with a big front line to beat up their opponent, crash the glass and control the boards, then let LeBron's offensive brilliance put them over the top.  The tweak in the last 14 months to make them deadly was the addition of a cadre of long-range gunners that, at any moment, can shoot them into huge scoring runs to put games away.  This makes them a very difficult matchup for most teams, resulting in a dominant regular season record.

But it also gives the blueprint for beating them in the playoffs.  The most dangerous opponents to the Cavs are those that can match or overpower their bigs on the glass, that have the pieces to at least make LeBron work at both ends, and that have dynamic scorers that LeBron can't cover himself.  This is the way the Celtics beat them two years ago, it's a big part of the reason the Magic beat them last year, and it's the reason that the Bulls have been able to at least make them work through three games.  Because in Joakim Noah, the Bulls have their own irritating Energizer bunny that can do everything that Anderson Varejao does for the Cavs, only better.  In Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich, the Bulls have two wings that at least make LeBron have to think (he shreds them, of course, like he does everyone else, but at least he has to think while he does it).  And in Derrick Rose, the Bulls have (when he's on) an unstoppable offensive player that LeBron can't guard.  This is key, because LeBron is really the only defensive stopper in the Cavs line-up.  The other perimeter defenders can be solid system players, but they can't take someone out of the game.  In fact, when Rose was torching them last night the Cavs even tried putting LeBron on him but it didn't work, as Rose was just too quick.  End result of this: Bulls steal a game.

Now, the Bulls don't yet have the breadth of talent to really challenge the Cavs in a series.  They also don't have the experience.  Essentially, they have to play perfectly to eek out wins and that isn't really sustainable.  Nevertheless, I think they've already proven their point (that they are an up and coming team) and I wouldn't even be shocked if they managed to steal another game.

Now, let's shift out West to the Lakers and Thunder.  Similar dynamic, where the Lakers are a juggernaut that has weaknesses.  Since Pau Gasol got there they have relied upon having an advantage in the frontcourt against most opponents, allowing Kobe Bryant to become a dagger that selects his spots as opposed to having to do all of the heavy lifting himself.  Two years ago they had weak spots at both small forward and point guard, but Trevor Ariza and now Ron Artest have covered the small forward hole.  But they still don't have much talent at point guard, leaving them vulnerable there.

Two years ago the Celtics beat them because they had an even better front line, and they had two wings to exploit the Lakers' two defensive weaknesses (Kobe guarded Rondo, leaving Derek Fisher and Luke Walton to get torched by Ray Allen and Paul Pierce).  Last year the Magic couldn't beat them, because the Lakers frontline was enough to neutralize Howard and the Magic didn't have the perimeter players to exploit the matchup.  This year the Thunder don't have the frontline to challenge the Lakers, which is a big reason why eventually they'll lose.  But Westbrook can absolutely torch their weakness at point guard, and despite Artest's defensive prowess, Kevin Durant is so stupidly good that he can make that match-up a mismatch at times as well.

Did you watch that game last night?  The fourth quarter, specifically?  Durant dominated Kobe 1-on-1 on a level that I've never really seen before.  There are many calling it a passing-the-torch performance, as Durant took Kobe out of the game defensively (Kobe went 2-for-10 from the field in the fourth while being hounded by Durant) then came back and lit up the Lakers at the other end (Durant scored 12 fourth quarter points as part of his 29-point/19-rebound performance).

Just like in the Cavs/Bulls series, there's no need to get carried away.  The Lakers are going to win.  They are too big, too skilled, and too experienced to lose to this Thunder team.  But the Thunder are for real, and the gap between them and the Lakers isn't as big as you might think.  I'd actually be pretty shocked if the Thunder DON'T take at least one more game in this series.  I think that it goes at least six games, with an outside shot at seven before the Lakers can move on.