Serenity now.

Texas/Cleveland over 8 (-120). Left-handed batters are 0-20 against Fausto Carmona this season, despite the fact that he has yet to strike out  a single one of them. That's a BABIP of .000.  Carmona has two quality starts while striking out five men and walking 10. Suffice to say he'll be a fade option, as well as an over option, going forward.

Houston +195. We might be done with them for a while.

Florida -127. Ricky Nolasco did not pitch well, giving up three homers. As Jeff Erickson noted on Twitter, this is Nolasco's fatal flaw, and something he has to arrest if he's to meet the expectations I and others have placed upon him. The Marlins still might have won had they converted bases-loaded situations in the second or ninth.

I'll skip the self-serving discussion of variance and get right to the picks:

Kansas City +105, one unit. Dontrelle Willis is pitching for the other guys. My only concern is that this line seems too low for the Royals on the road, even opposing Willis.

Arizona +153, one unit. I may be close to buying in on Ian Kennedy, which is only part of the reason for this pick. The other is that Clayton Kershaw's tendency to not work deep into games brings the very soft underbelly of the Dodger bullpen into play. Take Jonathan Broxton out and Dodger relievers have walked eight and struck out 10 in 17 1/3 innings.

Chicago (AL) -101, one unit. Gavin Floyd against the Jays is a minor mismatch. The Jays' offense has been carried by two players, Alex Gonzalez and Vernon Wells, slugging far above their station. That should end soon.