1. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals aren't exactly a juggernaut, but because of the NL Central, they might be the most likely team in all of baseball to win their division this season. Adam Wainwright is a bona fide ace, and Chris Carpenter is dominant, but he also remains a pretty significant injury risk. Should be interesting to see if Dave Duncan can work his magic with Brad Penny, and while Jaime Garcia is an intriguing arm, he can't be expected to throw much more than 150 innings this year. Albert Pujols just means so much; one of the true difference makers in baseball. Colby Rasmus is only going to improve, and Brendan Ryan provides fantastic defense at a premium position. The bullpen is a question mark, but Tony La Russa seems to consistently get more out of less with this group.
Fearless prediction: Jason Motte finishes with more saves than Ryan Franklin.
2. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are something of a trendy sleeper pick, and while I originally had the Cubs finishing second here, a look over Cincinnati's roster reveals a pretty interesting team. Maybe Aaron Harang never bounces back, but considering he's posted a 3.17:1 K:BB ratio over the past two years (which has resulted in a record of 12-31 with a 4.52 ERA), there's a question of what he's exactly even "bouncing back" from – pitching well? What if Johnny Cueto puts it all together? Bronson Arroyo is a fine "innings eater" (yes, I went there). Aroldis Chapman is definitely going to deal with control issues, but it wouldn't totally shock if he went all Clayton Kershaw on the league either – immediately becoming one of the toughest pitchers to hit. I know you don't want to hear about my fantasy team, but I'm still going to tell the following story, so deal with it. I entered the final day of the season last year in my home league in a virtual tie with my arch nemesis. Strikeouts were a hugely contested category, and I had about six innings before reaching my league's max (1,800), and in case none of you realize this, Yahoo allows you to go over the limit as much as possible on the day you reach said limit (but in my league, we set a rule that you get penalized if you go more than five innings over), and I decided to start Homer Bailey over Felix Hernandez on this fateful afternoon (mostly because of the matchup, but do you realize Hernandez struck out six batters or fewer in eight of his final nine starts last season? Personally, I think you're crazier than Bob Wiley if you take King Felix over Zack Greinke in fantasy leagues this year). Well, Bailey fanned seven batters over six innings, and I ended up winning the league by 0.5 points as a result, so despite mostly burning me in the past, he will always have a special place in my heart. That said, realize that over Bailey's final 14 starts last season, half of them came against the Pirates, Giants and Padres, so his schedule was extremely forgiving, and he has just three strikeouts over 11.2 innings this spring. I do not believe. As for the Reds' offense, look around the entire diamond and name me one weakness. Go get Drew Stubbs in your fantasy league.
Fearless prediction: Jay Bruce hits 40 homers.
3. Chicago Cubs
While Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto should bounce back, Derrek Lee and Randy Wells should regress, and the team will certainly miss Ted Lilly while he's out. Tom Gorzelanny could prove to be a strong No. 5 starter, but Chicago's bullpen looks like a mess. The Cubs could remain in contention deep into summer in a rather weak division, but this team will almost certainly need to win the NL Central to make the postseason, as there are far superior squads that will be fighting for the wild card.
Fearless prediction: Chris Liss stops defending Alfonso Soriano.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
This isn't an uninteresting team, but there are far too many question marks in the starting rotation after Yovani Gallardo and not quite enough offense to be a true contender. Randy Wolf has always possessed the ability he showed last season, has been sharp all spring (18:3 K:BB ratio over 20.0 innings) and was even better on the road compared to home last year. Still, it's worth mentioning he averaged just 113.1 innings over the previous five seasons before last year. Manny Parra is dead to me (seriously, if that sonuvabitch breaks out this year, so help me God), but few (if any) teams feature a one-two punch as good as Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. Corey Hart looks dangerously close to getting released, but Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Carlos Gomez are pretty exciting young players. And the year I give up on Rickie Weeks is the same one he'll go 30/30.
Fearless prediction: Yovani Gallardo improves his control, resulting in 230 strikeouts and a top-eight fantasy pitcher.
5. Houston Astros
The Astros refuse to rebuild, so they are always left with a couple of very good players, usually veterans, and a team likely to finish in the middle of their division. It's basically the worst of both worlds – no chance at winning, either now or in the future. And this dates back to the latter Killer Bs days too. Wandy Rodriguez is probably due to regress some, but Roy Oswalt should bounce back a bit. As much as the infield defense has some upside, it's countered by the offense's downside, especially if Lance Berkman's knee doesn't get right in a hurry.
Fearless prediction: Sam Gervacio is the Astros' best reliever, resulting in him taking over the closer's role after the All-Star break.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
Andrew McCutchen is one of the more exciting young players in the league. Octavio Dotel is a decent cheap option in fantasy leagues. And Ryan Doumit would also be a valuable catcher if he ever stayed healthy. But what else is there to say? Sure seems like they got ripped off in the Nyjer Morgan/Lastings Milledge trade, but I guess we can all wait in anticipation for Pedro Alvarez.
Fearless prediction: Brad Lincoln is the team's best starter in 2010.