1. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have flaws, but they look like the class of a division filled with mediocrity. Ubaldo Jimenez is a dominant ace. Jorge De La Rosa isn't far from being a strong No. 2, and while Aaron Cook and Jason Hammel don't make great fantasy options, both induce so many groundballs, they are plenty effective real life assets. The loss of Jason Marquis' career-year from last season will hurt, but the return of a healthy Jeff Francis should negate that somewhat. The bullpen is definitely unsettled and a bit of a concern, and there isn't a true superstar in the lineup, but there also isn't a real glaring weakness with Colorado. Seth Smith is probably the best fourth outfielder in all of baseball, and guys like Chris Iannetta, Ian Stewart, Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzales are only going to improve. Troy Tulowitzki is the team's best position player, and because of his extreme defensive deficiencies (plus good depth in the outfield), the Rockies should look to trade Brad Hawpe if he gets off to a hot start with the bat. It wouldn't shock if Colorado won the World Series.
Fearless prediction: Ubaldo Jimenez finishes in the top-three Cy Young vote; Huston Street's injury proves disastrous, and he ends the year with fewer than five saves; Carlos Gonzales enters 2011 as a top-10 fantasy outfielder on all draft boards.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
I went to Reno for the first two days of the NCAA tournament this year, which was a pretty cool experience. Aside from betting on the majority of the hoops games, I'm not a big gambler when it comes to the tables, so instead of losing $60 in five minutes playing blackjack, which is what typically happens to me, I decided to put some cash on a futures bet. When looking at the odds to win the 2010 World Series, Arizona jumped out like a sore thumb at 70-1. I mean, the two other teams that were the same odds were the Blue Jays and Astros. For comparison's sake, the Mets were 10-1, the Giants were 18-1, the Brewers and A's were 50-1; of course, this isn't a direct reflection of how the Peppermill viewed each team's chances of actually winning it – it was also a reflection of where the money was coming in. Anyway, I decided to put down $150 on them (which will pay $10,650), and within five minutes, the odds on the Diamondbacks dropped to 50-1. Made me feel special.
I don't have Arizona making the playoffs, but I do have them finishing as the fifth best team in the NL and think this team is more dangerous than most give them credit for. Brandon Webb's slow progress is disconcerting, and it's looking increasingly unlikely he returns to form, but it's at least possible, right? And while I disagree with the Max Scherzer trade, Edwin Jackson should be a force in the NL West, and Ian Kennedy's dominant minor league numbers could lead to a pretty damn good No. 4 starter in the National League. The bullpen should actually be pretty solid despite the lack of star names, and only Mark Reynolds looks to be in store for regression on offense. In fact, there are so many young, talented bats, what happens if all start to live up to their potential at once? Justin Upton is already a true star, while Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew and Kelly Johnson are all due for bounce back campaigns. The Adam LaRoche signing at a discount was smart, and the Miguel Montero/Chris Snyder combo behind the plate is the second-best in the NL. Chris Young has shown great strides at the plate this spring, but even if he continues to struggle with the bat, he's a better defender in center than his recent UZR suggests, and Gerardo Parra is a fine fallback option. Name one weakness in this team's lineup.
Fearless prediction: Dan Haren, who has an ERA 2.2 runs higher from August through September compared to April through July over the past three seasons and a WHIP .50 higher over that span as well, will pitch better after the All-Star break in 2010 compared to beforehand. When his owners will inevitably be trying to sell come July, buy him.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
I'm not overly down on the Dodgers and expect them to be in the NL West hunt throughout, but this is a team with a starting infield that hit a combined 49 homers last year; that's 9.8 bombs per player for those counting at home. The outfield is obviously pretty strong, especially when Manny Ramirez rebounds from a poor 2009 second half, motivated for his next contract. The bullpen has plenty of power arms, and if Chad Billingsley performs like he's capable of (last year's second half was likely a fluke), and Clayton Kershaw continues to progress, the rotation should be a plus as well, with Hiroki Kuroda a fine No. 3 and Vicente Padilla a very good No. 4. Los Angeles could definitely win this division again, but they are far from locks.
Fearless prediction: Matt Kemp goes down as the biggest fantasy bust of 2010.
4. San Francisco Giants
More of the same. The Giants have one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball, but with one of the worst offenses and a defense that looks like possibly one of the weakest in MLB, they aren't much of a threat. Last year pretty much everything went right with the pitching; Tim Lincecum won his second straight Cy Young. Matt Cain performed far better than his peripherals suggested he should. Barry Zito bounced back quite a bit. Jonathan Sanchez was a beast over the second half. Brian Wilson was a monster. Everyone stayed healthy. While Sanchez could take another step forward, there's only room to regress here in 2010, and GM Brian Sabean's decisions to address the poor offense this offseason were laughable. In November I wrote this: "if/when Sabean signs Mark DeRosa this offseason, he'll need to file a restraining order against me." I'm pointing that out more to say just how predictable he is, not to draw attention toward the police. Here are Sabean's priorities when looking at free agents: Over 30? Check. Bad defensively? Check. Coming off a career-year? Check. Will they sign for a multi-year deal? Check. And in some instances, are they currently injured (DeRosa and Freddy Sanchez)? Check. Sabean is to a GM what Radiohead is to music or Larry David is to comedy. Only the opposite. The Giants have a sneaky good farm system right now, but Madison Bumgarner's drop in velocity has cost me sleep at night. I've seen plenty of ESPN people picking this team to win the division, but I'd be shocked if the Giants make the playoffs this year.
Fearless prediction: Jonathan Sanchez has a better fantasy season than Matt Cain.
5. San Diego Padres
Even if San Diego surprises and outperforms expectations, they will take a hit after they decide to trade Heath Bell and Adrian Gonzalez. The whole starting rotation is undervalued in fantasy leagues right now, as is Tony Gwynn Jr., but the Padres look like an obvious choice for last place, especially when you consider their payroll concerns. Keeper leaguers need to target Simon Castro.
Fearless prediction: Mike Adams ends up as a more valuable fantasy commodity than Heath Bell.