As the Twins look to solve their closer problem with Joe Nathan all but out for the season, the Twins may be better off finding a "proven veteran" for the job, and not in ways you're probably thinking.
John Smoltz certainly fits the bill of a proven closer who can handle pressure situations. He has some of the best postseason stats in baseball history (15 wins and 2.47 ERA) and had three all-star years as Atlanta's closer from 2002-2004. While he stunk for the Red Sox last season (8.32 ERA), he improved with the Cardinals (4.26 ERA) and still had the strong strikeout rates (8.4 K/9) and control (73:18 K:BB ratio) you want in a closer. Sure, he'll turn 43 this season, but still has a fastball in the low-90s and the closer role may reduce his injury risk.
But this isn't about Smoltz per se. He'd likely be a poor use of Minnesota's resources since he'd likely command a seven-figure salary (he was paid $5.5 million last year by Boston) and the Twins already have a deep bullpen and a number of closer prospects in the upper minors.
However, signing or trading for a "proven veteran" at minimal cost would help alleviate the inefficient pattern of bullpen use by Ron Gardenhire. My worry is that once the Twins determine who the best pitcher is among Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, Jose MIjares, Jesse Crain and Pat Neshek, the "best" pitcher will be pigeonholed into the easier ninth inning saves rather than used in crucial situations in the 8th and 9th inning.
Gardenhire has fallen to the trap of most major league managers who manage to the save statistic by refusing to bring in their closer with the game on the line in the 7th or 8th inning and instead saving them for the often easier set of batters in the 9th inning. Joe Nathan, as great as he was last season, led the AL in "Easy Saves" with 32 of his 47 saves coming when he entered the game without the first batter he faced not at least representing the tying run [thanks Bill James Handbook]. Gardenhire used him before the ninth inning only five times all season.
Using Mijares and Neshek (if he returns to his 2007 form, which is a big question after Tommy John surgery) in the ninth inning would limit some of Minnesota's best weapons in the late innings. Mijares is almost an automatic out against lefties (.480 OPS allowed to left-handed batters), while Neshek in his prime was deadly against right-handed hitters (career .527 OPS vs. righties). Putting either in the closer role would suddenly limit their platoon use, because under Gardy's and all other managers' rules, there's a ban on utilizing platoon splits in the ninth inning.
It's not clear that Rauch or Crain has enough of the "proven veteran" moxy to give Gardenhire and the club confidence about the ninth inning, but they'd likely do just fine in the Easy Save situations. And there's probably something to idea that the last three outs are just a different mental game that some can't adjust to (hello LaTroy Hawkins), so that's where the "proven veteran" comes in.
Or maybe Gardenhire could break the mold and become the first manager of his era to start using his best pitcher in crucial situations earlier in the game. I'd like to see a manager have a "fireman" who is the bullpen's best pitcher that could be used against an opposing team's best hitters in key situations at any point in the late innings. Meanwhile the "closer" would get the stat-mandated save opportunities. And a smart GM could then trade that older closer to other teams when he got expensive without losing his best pitcher.
But short of Gardy seeing the light, maybe it's best that the Twins find that proven veteran to accidentally maximize their bullpen innings.