I finished my third baseball draft yesterday and twice I've been blessed with the first pick. I took Albert Pujols both times but at the conclusion of yesterday's draft I began to think I made a mistake and should have gone with Alex Rodriguez instead. This led me to take a look at the two.
Both players come with injuries concerns-Pujols with his elbow, Rodriguez with his hip. ARod is older (34 to 30) but plays in a better offensive lineup in New York.
Quick-who has a better three-year average between the two?
Their fantasy numbers are actually closer than you would probably think:
Pujols-.337, 38 home runs, 118 RBIs, 107 runs, 8 stolen bases
ARod-.301, 39 home runs, 119 RBIs, 108 runs, 18 stolen bases
Granted, Rodriguez's numbers are helped by a monster 2007 but it can be argued that he was healthy as he is now (supposedly). Going forward there's a lot to like about ARod. Those numbers include a tough second-half in 2008 when he posted a .847 OPS in August dealing with the aforementioned nagging hip. He also missed a good chuck of time that year, losing 108 plate appearances (708 to 594) from the 2007 season. Then came last year, when he again lost time at the start of the season after his hip surgery. This dropped his plate appearances by another 59 (594 to 535). After he returned ARod looked good as new. He set a career-high walk rate (15 percent) and continued to be a threat to run by stealing 14 bases. Pujols swiped a career-high 16 bags last year which he isn't likely to replicate this season, so I'd give ARod the edge there for this season. Albert will beat ARod in batting average, probably significantly, but ARod had a seven-year low .306 BABIP suggesting that he should do much better than last year's .286 average. Rodriguez also gets to play half of his games in the launching pad known as Yankee Stadium (18/12 home run home/away split). Anyone else remember Justin Verlander laughing as ARod "popped up" to right field only to see it sail over the wall? The power numbers overall should be pretty close but I'll concede that Pujols will likely come out on top, just not that significantly.
Lastly and most importantly, are their respective positions. This year third base is incredibly shallow, I've got ARod, Evan Longoria, David Wright, Pablo Sandoval and Ryan Zimmerman as my top five. Across the diamond is deep as usual; I've got what's considered the consensus as my top five-Pujols, Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.
Let's go past the top five in each position. The next group of first baseman-Joey Votto, Justin Morneau, Kendry Morales, Derek Lee and Adrian Gonzalez all have enough upside to finish in the top five (I left out one of my favorite sleepers for this year, Billy Butler, who will be in this group next year). I don't have the same optimism at third. I doubt Michael Young reaches 20 homers again, Mark Reynolds kills your batting average, Kevin Youklis's career-best .363 BABIP last year suggests a decline is coming and Aramis Ramirez hasn't hit 30 homers since 2006. ARod has a big advantage here with his 3B eligibility.
Obviously both are extremely good players capable of carrying a fantasy team. The key for Alex will be to stay healthy (which he appears to be) and get at least 650 plate appearances. In the end I'd rather have a combo of ARod with Kendry Morales or Adrian Gonzalez over a combo of Pujols with Michael Young or Kevin Youkilis.
As far as my draft, I ended up trading Pujols immediately for Rodriguez and Jered Weaver (Votto and Butler are on my team and I don't trust Chipper Jones at third).
What do you think, is this all just crazy talk?