With one pending signature, the Mets will become a much, much better team!
Reports indicate that Free Agent right-handed hitting outfielder Jason Bay has agreed to terms with the New York Mets. What does the impact of his potential signing mean in this off season?
Bay is alleged to have agreed to a 60 million dollar 4 year deal with a vesting option for 2014. The days of debating if any player is worth 15 million dollars a year to hit a baseball are long gone. Baseball has a history of rewarding marquee players who have the ability to hit homers. It clearly states in every stat book I have read that Bay hit 36 long balls last year. That's not too shabby. And by the way, he also drove in 119 runs. Yes, he did tail off a bit at the end of the year. No, he doesn't play the best defensive left field. His batting average also left a bit to be desired at .267 (a drop of 19 points from '08.) There were some other year over year '08 to '09 stats that do make me take note: For example, Bay's homers and runs batted in both increased over '08. But, he hit 39 points lower against right handed pitching in '09. Interesting. Not so fast-he hit 40 points better against lefties. He changed leagues in '08, going from Pittsburgh to Boston and that may account for some of the change. His OPS was fairly steady over both years. In fact, he finished at .914 in '09.
To me, the Red Sox have lost a very steady, very reliable power hitter in the middle of the lineup that will be very difficult to replace. Where do the Red Sox go for those home runs and RBI? They won't come from Mike Cameron. His numbers have been declining instead of increasing. If Cameron assumes the left field role for Boston, they will have given up 12 HRs and 49 RBI. Granted, there certainly was no guarantee Bay would equal his '09 output in the coming season. But I wouldn't have bet against it. If David Ortiz continues to decline and Mike Lowell indeed is unable to play, the loss of Bay is magnified. It will put even more pressure on the likes of Martinez, Youkilis, Pedroia, etc.
The Red Sox have wisely improved their already strong starting pitching. They have devoted resources to the rotation and feel they may have enough offense to fend off the Yankees. However, that little voice inside me says that we haven't heard the last of Boston. If they do complete a trade with San Diego at some point for Adrian Gonzalez their offensive shortcomings will become a moot point. They don't have to make a deal in the off season. They can take a good look at their club at the All Star Game break, determine their needs and rekindle any trade talks that were in the works. I just don't think the team we will see on July 20th is the same Red Sox team we view on paper now in December.
My point? I think Boston gave up a great deal of offense when they lost Jason Bay. His stroke was well suited to the 37 foot Green Monster, he plays the game to win and he thrives with men in scoring position. It's a lot to lose with no return.
Bay to the Mets? Good fit?
Much has been written about how difficult it is to hit the ball out of Citi Field. True, but the impact is greater for those hitting the ball to right and right-center. That includes David Wright who hits a ton of balls to the opposite field. Bay should not be impacted greatly by the 7 level changes of the outfield fence. In fact, the shorter left field wall should help his home run total. The Mets got much, much better today if Carlos Beltran is healthy. A lineup that boasts Beltran, Wright and Bay in any mix in the batting order is formidable. If Jose Reyes returns at full strength and sets the table, there should be plenty of RBI opportunities for each of those big bats. If. If. If. Beltran and Reyes have to be sound physically for Jason Bay to reap the benefits. It is a risk on Bay's part. But it may have been his best option to this point in the off season.
Were there other deals out there for Jason Bay? He and his agent know that. Everything else is speculation. Would the Cards have signed him if they are turned away by Matt Holliday? Mr. Bay certainly didn't want to wait around and see if that was going to happen. He's on the way to the bank. Who am I kidding? He owns the bank. Matt Holliday sits and waits. Would the Red Sox have taken Bay back to the Back Bay? Again, who knows? Maybe after they let the market ride for a while. But again, why wait? Maybe the Mets were about to pull the deal off the table. Regardless of what other market developed or didn't develop for Jason Bay, he will soon be in the orange and blue of the New York Mets.
Any negatives to Bay going to the Mets? Yes. A couple.
He'll be changing leagues. He's been in the National League before so the transition shouldn't be that difficult. However, it is a factor he'll face. He'll be seeing lots of the Phillies, Marlins and Braves pitchers. They're pretty good. He'll have his hands full. Changing leagues takes some adjustment. Seeing great pitching will make him elevate his game to their level.
He will have a spacious outfield to cover. He will be challenged to make the pays. Hit the cutoff man. Throw to the correct base. Catch balls hit his way. He'll be asked to live up to a huge contract at a time when baseball salaries are in flux. That will add a bit of pressure. However, playing in New York should not be a factor. Jason Bay played before the Red Sox Nation. He's felt the heat of the fans and the media. He's heard the talk shows. He's read the papers. He's seen the blogs. He's prepared.
The New York Mets improved greatly today! If indeed it is true that Jason Bay will become a New York Met, their lineup will now have a major force in the middle and everyone else will benefit from his presence. The Red Sox were prepared for this day. They most likely have a plan. They usually do.