The Lions have entered halftime tied or with the lead in three of their four games this season, but this team clearly wears down over the course of 60 minutes. Detroit is obviously improved this year, but the defense has allowed 5.2 YPC and 7.7 YPA with a 12:2 TD:INT ratio…Kevin Smith's 3.2 YPC is ugly, but he's one of the few true workhorses in today's NFL and showed good toughness playing through a shoulder injury that was originally termed "significant." Smith gets a brutal matchup this week, but the schedule eases up after that…After an awful Bears' debut, Jay Cutler has recorded eight touchdowns with just one interception over the past three games. The gaudy yardage totals have yet to come, but the production is encouraging despite a true WR1 yet to emerge in Chicago… Matt Forte owners can breath a sigh of relief, but it's worth noting that if you take away his two long runs, he managed just 2.3 YPC in a home game against the Lions. Of course, those two long runs count, but if a trade partner is willing to approach paying full price, I'd listen. Remember, Chicago faces the Ravens and Vikings in Weeks 15 and 16.
Derek Anderson isn't all that good, but to call him an upgrade over Brady Quinn would be a pretty massive understatement. His willingness to attack downfield makes Cleveland's offense just so much more difficult to defend than Quinn's dink-and-dunk version. Anderson's productive day was especially encouraging considering Braylon Edwards' goose egg…The Bengals' defense is clearly improved, as is their running game. However, Carson Palmer still doesn't look close to where he once was. Whether it's the knee injury or him still regaining arm strength from last year's elbow problem, something isn't quite right…Mohamed Massaquoi was impressive Sunday, but I wouldn't break my FAAB bank acquiring him…Jerome Harrison is a player. Not sure he can withstand many more 34-touch games like Sunday, but he certainly looked capable for one week, at least. He has better power than his 5-9 frame suggests, and he's a real weapon on screens. Hopefully, Jamal Lewis' carcass stays in the garage.
I'm starting to get the sneaking suspicion this Raiders team isn't very good. JaMarcus Russell just doesn't "get it." When your franchise player is the last to arrive and first to leave, it's probably not a good sign. His numbers so far are mind-boggling: 39.8|PERCENT|, 4.7 YPA, 1:5 TD:turnover ratio. Oakland is now 25-75 over its last 100 games…Since a bad performance in Week 1, Matt Schaub has gotten a whopping 9.2 YPA with an 8:2 TD:INT ratio. Houston plays four of its next fives games on the road, but the team hasn't even begun its matchups with the NFC West yet…After losing another fumble Sunday, Steve Slaton was benched in favor of Ryan Moats. A 32-yard touchdown run followed by an 18-yard TD catch really eased some concerns, but Houston's offensive line has done a terrible job of run-blocking. Slaton's 3.3 YPC can only go up, so remain patient. That said, in what originally looked like a good matchup in Week 5, the Cardinals have yielded just 3.3 YPC this season…His teammates haven't helped, but it's safe to say Darren McFadden has been a pretty big bust so far during his NFL career. Not only can he not stay healthy, but his straight-line speed just hasn't translated well, and his inability to break tackles has been apparent. Even after shutting down Oakland's rushing attack last week, the Texans' defense has allowed an NFL-high 5.5 YPC this year, making McFadden's Week 4 performance (six carries, -3 yards) even more troubling.
This Colts team is extremely dangerous. With a strong secondary, the most valuable player in the league and an influx of young talent (Donald Brown, Pierre Garcon), Indy has to be viewed as serious Super Bowl contenders. Imagine when Anthony Gonzalez returns too. The Colts have now won 13 straight regular season games…For the second consecutive season, Seattle has had to deal with a ton of injuries. Matt Hasselbeck can't return soon enough, but at least T.J. Houshmandzadeh finally showed a pulse Sunday. The Seahawks' season may be on the line this week against the Jaguars.
Aside from a Week 2 drubbing at the hands of the Cardinals, the Jaguars lost by just two points to what appears to be an elite Colts team and have now scored 68 points over back-to-back wins in Houston and at home against a desperate Tennessee team. Their next four opponents have a combined record of 1-15, so this team could easily remain in the playoff picture for a while. Factoring in all those rushing yards, David Garrard has to be considered a QB1 right now…I supposed Kerry Collins deserves some of the blame, but the quarterback has been asked to attempt 38.3 passes per game this season. That number was 25.9 last year, and no one should expect him to have to carry an offense at this stage of his career. The real culprit has been the secondary, which has gone from allowing 6.0 YPA with a 12:20 TD:INT ratio in 2008 to giving up 8.1 YPA with a 10:3 TD:INT ratio in 2009…Over the last three games, Mike Sims-Walker has averaged 6.3 catches, 92.7 yards and one touchdown. He's hardly a lock to remain healthy, but he can safely be started as a WR2 moving forward.
Nice to see Brandon Jacobs finally crack 4.0 YPC in a game, but Ahmad Bradshaw so clearly looks like the superior back. The Giants' running game may soon become that much more important if David Carr is forced into action…Eli Manning's injury is especially unfortunate in the midst of what was shaping up to be the best season of his career. How about a sack-adjusted YPA of 8.2? And to think, he was recently named as one of the NFL's most overrated in an SI players' poll…It might be worthwhile to see just how much Steve Smith would fetch in a trade, but he's by no means some must sell-high candidate, as he's fast become a legit wide receiver, bucking the USC wideout curse. I wouldn't trade him for Carolina's version…With a quarterback who's gotten just 5.1 YPA and already been sacked 10 times over three games combined with a running back who's gotten only 2.6 YPC, it's safe to say the Chiefs' offense is sputtering.
It's true Baltimore's secondary hasn't been great this year, but it looks like Tom Brady is rounding back into form, with Wes Welker's return helping as well…In the right matchup, Willis McGahee remains a fine FLEX option, especially since he's the Ravens' back most likely to score. Still, Ray Rice is clearly the superior option week-to-week, as he's routinely seeing far more touches (and succeeding with them)…After not fumbling for 622 straight plays, New England fumbled on back-to-back snaps Sunday…How do you not catch that ball Mark Clayton?
Josh Johnson is obviously quite raw as a passer, and he's unlikely to be a long-term starter, but he's definitely the most athletic and fastest quarterback in the league right now…Be afraid Kellen Winslow owners. Be very afraid. Nice to see an Antonio Bryant sighting, but the Tampa Bay QB situation is going to be a season-long problem…Do you realize Jason Campbell is getting 7.8 YPA this season? He's also committed as many turnovers (seven) through four games as he did all of last year…The Buccaneers were down six points with 4:30 to go at the 4-yard line Sunday and elected to kick a field goal. Look at it this way, if you were a huge Redskins fan or had a large sum of money bet on them, which decision would you actively be rooting for TB to make? I'm guessing that one, right?
Over the last three games, Ronnie Brown has totaled 366 yards with four touchdowns, as Miami has finally given him ample opportunities. It looks like he's going to be worth every bit of his ADP…Ask any Buffalo fan, the only way Marshawn Lynch's return was good news is if Fred Jackson suffers a serious injury. That timeshare is going to be a major downer for fantasy owners. Who cares if one was drafted in the first round while the other wasn't drafted at all, playing time should be dictated by performance and ability.
It's official – New Orleans' defense is legit. With a true homefield advantage, Drew Brees and a running game that's approaching dominant, the Saints have an argument as the best team in football. Their Week 6 matchup against the Giants is shaping up to be one of the biggest of the 2009 season (assuming Eli Manning is healthy, of course)…Don't worry about Mark Sanchez, those types of games were bound to happen. The Jets will be just fine. If possible, picking up and stashing Shonn Greene might not be a bad idea…Not only is Reggie Bush worthless between the tackles, but that's three fumbles already this year. His receiving numbers are also way down this season, making him one of the more disappointing fantasy players so far…It remains to be seen how Mike Bell is implemented after the bye, but it's hard to argue with Pierre Thomas' production. The holes have been gaping with opposing defenses playing mostly cover 2, but Thomas has good vision and speed and rarely goes down on first contact. Since he's also such an asset as a receiver, I'm not sure there is a fantasy RB with more upside. Of course, Bell could take away carries when he returns, so there are plenty of backs with a much higher floor.
Jerry Jones better hope him questioning Marion Barber's toughness last year didn't lead to the back returning too soon from his quad injury this season, leading to an aggravation that could linger for a while. With more than capable replacements, Barber needs to let that injury fully heal before coming back…The Broncos' defense is playing very well, but Tony Romo was pretty awful Sunday, and I'm usually an apologist. He's really struggled with accuracy issues at times this season, and since torching a Bucs' secondary in Week 1 that has since been revealed as one of the worst in the league, Romo has posted a 1:4 TD:INT ratio over his last three games…I'm beginning to think Roy Williams is slightly overpaid…Great play by Brandon Marshall, and maybe it will lead to more downfield attempts by Kyle Orton in the future. This offense is too vanilla right now, which can work over a 16-game regular season but leaves little upside come playoff time…Moving forward, I'd consider Knowshon Moreno a top-15 fantasy running back.
The 49ers' defense is much improved and playing well, but this Rams' offense is nothing short of terrible. Imagine if Steven Jackson were to get hurt. Whoever is playing QB this week may very well get killed by Minnesota's pass rush…Josh Morgan dropped a sure (long) touchdown Sunday, but just about everything else went right for a San Francisco team that is playing its best football in years. Can't wait to see what will happen if Michael Crabtree is also added into the mix – an explosive option in the passing game is the main area of need for the 49ers.
You don't want to overreact to one game, especially since it came against a San Diego team that has struggled against the run all season, but Rashard Mendenhall owners have to be feeling "pretty, pretty good" right now. Willie Parker is a soon to be free agent who looks nothing like his old "Fast Willie" days, and Pittsburgh would love to see its first round pick from last year justify the high selection. The Steelers' offensive line isn't good, but on a team that won the Super Bowl last year that has a dominant defense and strong passing attack, Mendenhall is in a fantastic situation. I'd much rather him on my team than LaDainian Tomlinson from here on out…Speaking of Tomlinson, it was maddening listening to the NBC crew keep talking about his age as the main factor in his decline Sunday night. While turning 30 years old over the summer is certainly part of the problem, Tomlinson's 2,677 career carries are obviously the biggest reason for his downfall. As much as those who took him early this year don't want to admit, he is human, after all. And that's not to say he can't remain in fantasy owners' starting lineups against weaker opponents moving forward, as Tomlinson is in a good situation in San Diego…Quietly, 33-year-old Hines Ward is on pace to finish the season with 104 catches and 1,420 receiving yards, which would easily be a career-high. Of course, he's still looking for his first touchdown, but Ward usually excels in the red zone, so he'll reach paydirt soon enough…In the second quarter Sunday, Pittsburgh went for it on fourth down at its own 31-yard line. Other than maybe Bill Belichick, I doubt any other coach would have done the same. Got to love Mike Tomlin.
I've become so sick of Brett Favre's act (like many others, and ESPN may be as equally to blame as the QB himself), I've almost found myself openly rooting against him at times recently. But even I must admit that was a tremendous game Monday night. It's now abundantly clear last year's second half fade had far more to do with injury than age, and his ability to attack downfield has proved me wrong. An easy schedule has helped, but there's no denying Favre's eight touchdowns over four games…Aaron Rodgers, who is very, very good by the way, was to blame for a couple of the eight sacks, but Green Bay's offensive line better get healthy over the bye. While the Packers' O-line was abused Monday, there was one play in which Favre had the cleanest pocket I may have ever witnessed in an NFL game, with at least 10 full seconds to look downfield. The Packers do know he wasn't wearing a red no-contact jersey, right?...I still view Greg Jennings as more of a buy-low opportunity than I do a big long-term concern…If you're in a deeper league, go ahead and stash Jermichael Finley…Late in the third quarter in a 28-14 game, I'm not sure why the ESPN announcers were questioning Green Bay's decision to go for it on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line. Even if they failed, the 30-yard difference in field position is worth roughly three points. It was especially a no-brainer when you consider how much the Packers' defense was having trouble stopping Minnesota's offense.