The Boston Red Sox travel to Anaheim to play a very hungry opponent. Is there reason to worry?
The mild injury to shortstop Alex Gonzalez' right hand changes everything for me regarding the Red Sox chances in the Playoffs. The Red Sox are not deep at that position. Nick Green is still hurt with a leg problem. If the hand acts up and Gonzalez can't go, Jed Lowrie will have to play short and he is just coming back from a wrist injury. A pitch from Indians reliever Kerry Wood hit Gonzalez on Saturday, October 3rd. X-Rays showed no break. Gonzalez played on Sunday and homered for the BoSox. But any hand injury concerns me. Again, my concern is the Red Sox lack of depth at a critical position-shortstop. Rocco Baldelli is also hurting and he may not be on the Division Series roster. While I don't want to make too much of Gonzalez being hit by a pitch, it did highlight the lack of depth for the Red Sox at shortstop. For all the depth they have around the diamond, they are weakest up the middle. When it's all said and done, Gonzalez will likely be able to play every inning of every Playoff game. It just provided a hiccup at the wrong time. It got my attention.
David Ortiz is heating up at the right time. The only problem? What happens if the Red Sox do happen to make it to the World Series? Can he play first in the National League parks? My answer? If the Red Sox win the home games, Ortiz may not be as important on the road. If they lose the home games, all bets are off. They may have to have his bat in the lineup. That means Martinez would catch. But of course, the Red Sox have all the flexibility in the world. The net result is the luxury of being able to bench Ortiz and turn to the option of Varitek catching, Martinez at first, Youkilis at third, Lowell as the DH, etc.
Regardless of the match-up in the American League, pitchers will have to deal with the bats of Victor Martinez, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jason Bay, Jacoby Elsbury, Mike Lowell, J. D. Drew, and the clutch Kevin Youkilis. That is no easy order. Pitchers can not afford to make mistakes against that group. Breathing room? At shortstop if Gonzalez can't play. No breathing room if he's playing. He can hit. Don't sell any possible loss of playing time for Alex Gonzalez short. He was a huge addition to the club. Both offensively and (especially) defensively. They will miss him tremendously if he can't play. But so far, so good. No need to worry. Yet.
If there are any worries, they have to begin and end on the mound. And even then, maybe only in the middle of the rotation. The starting pitching may stack up with the other clubs, but there are some cracks in the armor. Let's explore the rotation top to bottom:
Jon Lester has had an incredible run the past two months. His is a remarkable story. Pick your poison-Lester or Beckett, as good a 1-2 punch as any duo in baseball at post-season time, including the Yankees. Lester appears fully recovered from being hit in the leg with a batted ball. His outing this week was outstanding. Manager Terry Francona has announced that Lester will begin the Division Series in Anaheim.
There are few better post-season pitchers than Josh Beckett. With the exception of this week's outing (October 3rd,) he's on a roll and he can carry a pitching staff. To be successful, the breaking pitches have to work off his fastball. They should and he has every chance of winning. But Beckett recently had a series of cortisone shots in his back. So far, so good. No need to worry. Yet.
Following the first two horses is where a combination of skill and luck must prevail. Who is the third starter? Probably Clay Buchholz according to Francona. But nothing is set in stone and we could see Daisuke Matsuzaka in that role. Tim Wakefield? It's probably too early to learn about Wakefield. Buchholz offers a risk regarding his overall lack of experience. But if it's Matsuzaka in game three or four, the risk lies is his inconsistency and health. Game 3 could be pivotal if the Red Sox are down or have much less meaning if they're up two to nothing. I'm thinking Wakefield works out of the pen if he's on the roster. Don?t bet on it because of his bad back. So far, so good. No need to worry. Yet.
The bullpen is another major strength that can be inconsistent at times. Most Playoff clubs can say the same thing. On paper, the pen looks great. In reality, it depends upon who shows up on a given night.
Hideki Okajima-Righties hit over .300 off him. He is very, very tough on lefties. His command has to be "just so" or guys will wait him out and accept a base on balls. Credit Terry Francona with using him properly and knowing how and when he has seen enough. He has to handle the opposition's left-handed hitters late in games. He is the type of reliever that can be counted upon. The Red Sox trust him.
Ramon Ramirez-Neither righties or lefties hit him very well. He has had an outstanding season. Like most of the pen, he gives up fewer hits than innings pitched. Francona uses him with great confidence and he has been rewarded. Ramirez is very under rated and is a difference maker in the pen.
With Ramirez and Okajima, the Red Sox can get to the end of the game with confidence.
Manny DelCarmen-Here is where it gets dicey. Right-handed hitters have hit DelCarmen hard. His command is not the best and he is prone to giving up the big hit or the big inning. "Use With Caution" should be printed on his forehead. His numbers are actually not as bad as I make it out. But I have concerns about DelCarmen. It's going to come down to DelCarmen or Wakefield as the long man out of the pen. For me, that has to be Wakefield if his back is right.
Takashi Saito- a good option when he's totally healthy. Saito pitches with great success against left-handed hitters but actually struggles more vs. righties. Saito has closed for the Dodgers in the past and is seasoned in pressure situations. That's what I like about him. If he's healthy, he'll be fine. He can set-up a closer with his good location and command.
Daniel Bard- He probably makes the roster if they keep 12 pitchers. He can throw the heat but is inexperienced. He's a better pitcher vs. right-handed hitters. Bard can be hit and he has to have command to be successful. He is a strikeout pitcher-a quality that has great merit in the Playoffs when a K can get the team out of a jam. Probably in the pen if Wakefield isn't.
Billy Wagner-The team's other lefty out of the pen. Which Wagner shows up?
Will he be healthy? He'll be pitching for his supper in 2010. He's a real "trump" card for the Red Sox. The Playoffs. That's why he's on the club. His job? Help get those lefties out in a pinch.
Jonathan Papelbon-Will he be Brad Lidge or Jonathan Papelbon? He has been both very good and very bad. If he throws to his spots and doesn't put his pitches in the eyes of the hitters, he'll be fine. He really can be as good as it gets. Or as bad. I've seen both. His strikeout to walk ratio is outstanding. His WHIP and ERA are outstanding. Then why does he make me nervous? Because he does.
Without question, the greatest asset of the Boston Red Sox is the flexibility Terry Francona has with the 25 -man roster. He can mix and match players among his catchers, first and third basemen and his outfielders. We all know the players. Who would you like today? Martinez or Varitek? Lowell or Youkilis? Youkilis or Martinez? Neither. How about Kotchman? Don't want Ortiz in the field in the National League parks or against a tough lefty pitcher? Go with Martinez. Or Baldelli. Wow do they have the flexibility.
The bench includes Casey Kotchman and Rocco Baldelli (if he's healthy) and the guy or guys being rested that day. Good hitters will be coming off the bench late in games. Catchers Victor Martinez or Jason Varitek can both handle pitchers well. J. D. Drew has bursts of power that can equal those of any player. The roster is loaded.
The Red Sox probably have the most flexibility and options among all the Playoff bound teams. That?s a luxury in a short series. It means match-up advantages and it means players can remain fresher longer.
My concerns as I write this? I am concerned about the health of Alex Gonzalez several days following being hit by that pitch, the lack of depth at shortstop and the fact that teams will run, run, run against the Red Sox catchers. Neither Jason Varitek nor Victor Martinez will be able to control the running game of the Angels. That could be a huge problem. Plenty of reason to worry.
The Red Sox will be a formidable opponent and they have an excellent chance to pour lots of Champagne on each other at the end of it all. But I don't think that will happen. I don't have a good feeling about the starting pitching being as dominant as they look on paper. I don't have a good feeling about the run the Red Sox have had against the Angels. I have no empirical knowledge to justify my selection of the Angels to defeat the Red Sox in the Division Series. It's just a "hunch." Why? Because I think there are plenty of potential opportunities to be worried! Now.