You may be among the many who draft players with long term vision in mind. Your keeper leagues offer intriguing benefits for those who have the ability to look at a player's potential value along the road to the major leagues. In this blog, let's take a look at a few players that have struggled this season. Should you Hold Em or Fold Em?
The Cleveland Indians drafted right -handed pitcher Adam Miller with a sandwich pick in 2003. Miller was the 31st person drafted that year. He received a one million two hundred fifty thousand dollar bonus.
Despite being rated a top prospect in the Cleveland organization, Miller has never pitched in the major leagues. He has been injured and he can't shake the bad luck. The latest and most serious setback concerns surgeries he has had on the middle finger of his pitching hand. Two operations were performed. The first was completed April 29th of this year and the second was done on August 4th.
It is hoped that Miller will be able to perform again in spring training.
If he is able to return, it is not likely that Miller will be able to return to being a starter. The stress on his repaired finger might be just too much for him to overcome. If he does return, it is likely he will work out of the pen.
Prior to his finger issue, Miller was able to throw at 100 miles per hour. He had arm trouble in his career and he was on the way back to full strength when the finger issues shut him down. Miller had good secondary pitches and was considered to be a "can't miss" prospect. It's all in doubt now until he picks up a baseball and tries to regain his form. With much regret, I must say, "Fold Him."
Angel Villalona was the subject of a bidding war in 2008 when he left the Dominican Republic to join the San Francisco Giants. The Giants paid 2.1 million dollars to sign the huge 3B/1B away from teams like the Yankees and Red Sox.
Villalona will turn 19 on September 13th. He has his entire career ahead of him and he is just learning how to play the game.
Villalona is not unlike Pablo Sandoval in stature. Villalona is 6?3 inches tall and weighs in the neighborhood of 200 pounds. He will have to remain in good physical shape to realize his hitting potential.
Like Sandoval, Villalona can play either 3B or 1B. Currently, he is being played at first. He is fairly agile and has the ability to move laterally. He is very slow afoot and will be a detriment on the bases. So speed is not an asset. He doesn't have the greatest arm strength making his ability to play quality 3B doubtful. Villalona must hit himself to the big leagues. In July, Villalona strained his left quad and his season came to an end at San Jose in Class A Advanced. He was hitting .267 with 9 home runs and 42 runs batted in. Those are nice numbers for a young player. Here are the numbers that give pause: 73 strikeouts and 9 walks.
Lots of 'ifs' accompany the career of Angel Villalona.
First and foremost is the very poor plate discipline and poor contact rate. In his rookie season, Villalona struck out 118 times and walked 18. These first two seasons showed very negative contact indicators. The lack of improvement from year to year is troubling. Couple that with only 9 homers from a proposed power hitter at a low minor league classification, and it gives one reason for concern. If he doesn't make contact, he can't succeed.
The second 'if' for this scout concerns Villalona?s conditioning and dedication to keeping his body in good working order. A quad injury, an oblique strain or any variety of muscular issue could derail a guy like Angel Villalona. He's big, he's strong and he has a very thick lower body. He is slow and lumbering. His body must not fail him.
Given the raw power and the strength he brings to his game, Villalona should hit as he gains experience against professional pitching. There is too much money at stake for the Giants to derail him for any reason. They will be patient, provide the best trainers and give him the blueprint to succeed. It will be up to him to develop a career. He is likely up to 3 years away from major league play. His ceiling is very high and power hitters don't just fall from trees. He has to develop that power, learn how to play the game correctly, establish a "contact" approach and have fun. I think he can do that. For the moment, he is a "Hold Em."
In their ever increasing quest for pitching, Sean Gallagher was the third player, (and third pitcher) to be included by the Oakland A's in the July 28 trade with the San Diego Padres for Scott Hairston. Right- handers Ryan Webb and Craig Italiano came along with Gallagher in the deal. It says something when the pitching hungry Oakland A?s part with young pitchers. To me it says "buyer beware." While they have been known to make mistakes, (see Tim Hudson) Oakland usually parts with pitchers as they age or become more expensive. That was not the case with this trade. Gallagher won't be 24 until December.
Gallagher has never really realized the potential seen by the Chicago Cubs when they drafted him in the 12th round in 2004. Not many 12th round pitchers have ever been major factors in the big leagues. To date, that includes Sean Gallagher.
So far the career numbers for Gallagher are very telling. He has a 6-9 record and a whopping 5.72 earned-run-average over 3 major league seasons. He has walked 78 and struck out 119 in 146.1 innings. This season so far for San Diego, he is 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA and a 1.9 whip. Those numbers are not encouraging by any means.
Gallagher has a good arm, make no mistake about it. He throws a fastball, curve and change-up. He must locate his pitches to succeed as none of the three is overpowering. San Diego is a good stop for Gallagher because of the pitcher friendly ballpark. If he does continue to pitch in the rotation, it is likely he would be at the back end as a #4 or #5 starter.
It should be kept in mind that Gallagher is still young, he has the arm and he is still learning to pitch. All that said, I think there are better young pitching options available as we look ahead in baseball. The talent level on the mound is very encouraging. In short, "Fold Em."
Catcher Kyle Skipworth was a first round pick out of high school by the Florida Marlins in 2008.
Unfortunately, many have compared Skipworth to Twins All World catcher Joe Mauer. They are both catchers. So far, so ends the comparison.
When he was 19 years old, Mauer hit .302 with 4 home runs and struck out only 42 times in 476 plate appearances. At the age of 19, Skipworth hit .208 in 286 plate appearances and struck out 91 times. He finished his single A season at Greensboro on the disabled list this season.
What do Skipworth's fantasy owners do? Follow the money if you must. He got a huge bonus and the Marlins will stick with him. Not me.
Skipworth was given a 2.3 million dollar signing bonus by Florida when he signed out of high school. That type of bonus equals patience in baseball. In terms of an entire career, Skipworth is at the beginning. I just haven't seen signs of a hitter inside that very athletic body.
There have been troubling signs. First for this scout is a lack of discipline at the plate. A hitter can strike out, but in Skipworth's case, the swing is long and late. He is simply overmatched by fastballs and he flails at breaking pitches. Young players, especially those given large signing bonuses have a tendency to be impatient in the quest to prove their worthy of the money.
The Marlins will do whatever they can to help Skipworth succeed. That means providing the time needed to learn the game at its faster professional pace. A player like Skipworth has had success in high school. He performed well in front of scouts and baseball personnel. He was drafted and paid a huge bonus. Now he knows he must produce. There is greater risk with high school players becoming the player at the professional level that they flashed in high school. The majority of the reason is the competition level. Professional and high school baseball aren't close to being equal.
Skipworth is holding his own defensively behind the plate. He has a quick release and he is reputed to be a good handler of pitchers. So defensively, he will continue to be an asset for his club. Personally, I am not as optimistic about his offense. He has a great deal to learn. He has to reduce his self-induced pressure and let the game come to him with his natural ability. For now, I would say "Fold Em."
Former first round Rockies draft choice shortstop Chris Nelson is currently on the 60 day DL after having suffered yet another season ending injury. Nelson lost most of 2008 due to surgery on his left hand. Following his recovery, Nelson performed extremely well in the Arizona Fall League, leaving the Rockies organization with the impression he was the quality of player they had drafted as the 9th player taken in 2004.
However, in May of this season, the injury bug got to Nelson once again. He tore a ligament in his right wrist and has been sidelined ever since. Currently, Nelson is trying to recover.
There is no question Nelson was in the plans of the Colorado Rockies. However, hand and wrist injuries are difficult to overcome for most hitters. It takes time for players to regain the strength and swing they once had. While Nelson can likely pick up where he left off (he was hitting .280 at AA Tulsa at the time of his injury) he will need repetition and strengthening to get back to form.
Nelson has the ability to be an impact shortstop in the National League. His progress has now been delayed twice. He has the type of power that can generate from a quick swing with strong hands and wrists. That strength is threatened, but in time, he will recover. He has natural athletic ability and a good grip on baseball reality. He seems like the type of player that has the ability to rebound from an injury setback. His determination and skill set should carry him to the big leagues within the next three seasons at the latest. Possibly two. I think the batting average will be good, his speed will be outstanding, the home run output should be moderate and the defense average to a shade below on range at shortstop. Given all the positive tools and athletic ability, my recommendation is to Hold Him.
Prospects are great to watch and cause profound speculation. I hope these evaluations give you something to go on regarding the players listed above.
Before this season ends, I will have more Hold Em or Fold Em players to consider in my blogs.