1. Indianapolis Colts
Quietly, it seems as if the Colts are actually getting overlooked, something uncommon during Peyton Manning's career. The way I see it, the team upgraded its WR2 and running game and will have a healthy Manning from the beginning of the season, so why won't they be much improved over last year's 12-4 version? Maybe even a coaching change can rejuvenate a franchise that was becoming somewhat stagnant. The defense isn't great, but the secondary allowed just 6.7 YPA with a 6:15 TD:INT ratio in 2008. Another Super Bowl run isn't out of the question.
2. Tennessee Titans (wild card)
The loss of Albert Haynesworth hurts, and it's probably a stretch to ask Kerry Collins to last another full season healthy. Still, the offensive line is a strength, and few teams are better coached, even if the defensive side lost Jim Schwartz. Remember, Tennessee was probably the NFL's best team last season, only a couple of fluky fumbles make it seem otherwise. Chris Johnson has to be more involved in 2009, and the receiving corps should be better with the additions of Nate Washington and Kenny Britt. It's truly remarkable Collins took just eight sacks over 16 games last year.
3. Houston Texans (wild card)
One of these years, this playoff prediction has to turn true, right? The Texans' defense remains a huge problem (although there are some big names on that side of the ball), and the team is pretty soft, considering how much they rely on homefield. And Matt Schaub must stay healthy, something of a long shot. Still, the system has remained constant, and the offense has huge potential. Over the last two years, Schaub has got 7.8 YPA and 8.0 YPA, respectively, so an MVP type season isn't out of the question if he can somehow stay on the field. Baltimore could easily beat out Houston for the final playoff spot, but the Texans get the benefit of playing the NFC West this year, which could prove the difference.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars aren't that bad and could even surprise coming off such a disappointing year. The team addressed the offensive line through the draft, but that could result in some short-term struggles before the long-term gains take effect. Getting Maurice Jones-Drew more touches will help, and Torry Holt, even at this stage of his career, likely upgrades the receiving group. And while David Garrard isn't as good as his 2007 season suggests (7.7 YPA, 18:3 TD:INT ratio), he's better than his numbers indicated last year. Still, Jacksonville is stuck in a highly competitive division, so even though the team would likely win the NFC West, they are probably relegated to a last place finish in the AFC South.