Fantasy rosters are littered with players that have not achieved their potential or usual level of success. Let's take a look at a few of them and discuss their potential for a rebound next season.
As we all know, fantasy value and value to a major league baseball roster are two totally different matters. Defense and solid pitching drive World Series Championship teams coupled with one or two (at least) offensive difference makers. In some cases, players remain on rosters for defensive purposes only. So even in a down offensive year, a player may continue to get playing time.
In the cases I list below, in my opinion the player can be classified as an underachiever offensively. There are many, many more and this is by no means an exhaustive list.
Chris Young-(CF Diamondbacks) It wasn't that long ago, the 2007 season to be exact, that Chris Young looked like an up and coming 4 tool start for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He was hitting with power, stealing bases, playing great defensive outfield and throwing runners out on the bases. Only his average batting average kept him from being an elite player. The huge ceiling started to crash in on him last season. That was nothing compared to this campaign. At the time of his recent demotion to AAA Reno, Young was hitting .194 and he looked totally lost at the plate. He was reaching for pitches and he was totally confused in his approach to hitting. Team management and scouts scratched their heads as game after game Young was fooled by savvy pitchers exploiting holes in his swing. If it wasn't the slider down and away, it was off-speed pitches following heat up and in. The Dbacks cared enough about Chris Young to send him to Reno to work on the mental as well as physical part of his game. Like many players, older and younger, Young started to let his failure get to him. At Reno he has played 7 games and has 30 at-bats. He is hitting .300 with 1 home run and 0 stolen bases. Can he rebound? His role on the Diamondbacks is not a certainty. He will have to battle his way back to the big club. Players like Gerardo Parra, Alex Romero, Eric Byrnes, and Trent Oeltjen are all going to be looking for playing time. Not to mention the potential return of Chris Carter from his bout with Valley Fever and the certain return of Justin Upton from an oblique injury. Bottom line: The outfield will be crowded. Chris Young is an outstanding defensive center fielder. The best of the bunch. But he'll have to hit his way back to his regular role. His return will be as much mental adjustment as physical adjustment. But he hasn't hit for two years. Look for Gerardo Parra to be the leading contender to play center field for the DBacks next year. Young will be 26 in September.
J. J. Hardy-(SS Brewers) Hardy was hailed as a leading home run hitting shortstop and many, many people jumped on his bandwagon. It was the batting average that went south. At the time of his demotion to AAA, Hardy was hitting a meager .229 for the Brew Crew. He had 11 home runs and 45 runs batted in. For some, that's an acceptable midway total for a shortstop. He's only 27 years old and he should be on the verge of his most productive seasons. In 2008, Hardy clobbered 24 home runs and hit .283. Nice numbers that led to optimism. The emergence of Alcides Escobar as a potential superstar defensive wizard at shortstop with a good bat and plenty of speed on the bases is cause for concern regarding Hardy. His trade value has slipped, but there are plenty of clubs willing to take a flyer on someone with J. J. Hardy's track record and power. If Matt Gamel ever hits and plays defense at 3B (I have my doubts about Gamel) then the left side of the infield could be set. That leaves second base. Rickie Weeks was off to a very good start before his wrist injury. (He has a history of similar injuries and they run in his family).
Weeks would play second base. That makes Hardy a candidate to be traded. That might be the best solution. It isn't likely Hardy has lost all his power and hitting mechanics all at once. Like Chris Young, much is mental. I look for a slight rebound, but possibly with a different team.
Grady Sizemore- (CF Indians) Why is Eric Wedge still writing Sizemore into the Indians lineup? His elbow will need surgical repair after the season. Why not do it now? One of the steepest declines in MLB has been provided by Grady Sizemore. There are many people who built their entire fantasy team around the multiple talents of Sizemore. He has regressed in virtually every category. But Grady Sizemore really hasn't ever hit for average. His home runs, runs scored and stolen bases were fantastic as recently as last season when he hit 35 bombs, drove in 90 runs and stole 38 bases. He also struck out 130 times. He hit .268. This season, Sizemore is a .245 hitter with 17 home runs and 11 stolen bases. Most alarming is the fact that he has been caught stealing 8 times. He's 27 years old and entering the prime of his career. Can he rebound? It all depends upon his rehab from elbow surgery. His swing will be impacted and his strength could be sapped from surgery. He will have to work hard to return to form. However, his work ethic is so fantastic (that's why he's still in the lineup) that I have full, 100|PERCENT| faith in Sizemore coming back.
Magglio Ordonez-(RF Tigers) What's all the commotion about you ask? It's money. Mags is due for a hefty payday if he reaches certain playing time/at-bat milestones. This year, the usually reliable home run hitter has a total of 7. Last year he hit 21. This year he has 37 runs batted in. Last year, 103. He's 35 years old. This is the second season of skill erosion. If he is traded, his contract moves with him. The Tigers and Ordonez are in a bind. I do not look for his skills to rebound. I do think he can still hit big league pitching. I just don't think he's the power force he once was because his bat speed has diminished tremendously. His batting average is down to .274 from .317 last year. He isn't the same player he once was.
Geovany Soto- (C Cubs) Soto has been injured. He missed a month of the season with a left oblique strain and he is just now getting back to form. His numbers decline is staggering. He is hitting only .217 with a total of 9 home runs in 80 games. Last year he hit 23 homers and drove in 86 runs. Soto was a good player in the minor leagues, but he was never the hitter he was in his rookie year with the Cubs. Wonder why that was? Anyway, Soto is only 26 and he has some ability to hit major league pitching. I don't think he will be the Soto we saw as a rookie and I don't think he'll be the Soto we saw at the beginning of the year. I see him settling in as a .255 hitter with about 15 home runs. There are better hitting catchers emerging every year.
David Ortiz- (DH Red Sox) The decline has been in place now for two and a half seasons. It isn't all associated with his injuries. David Ortiz is now 34 years old. His bat speed has declined. His pitch selection has changed as he has become more desperate to prove his value to the Red Sox. His playing time will diminish with the presence of Victor Martinez and Casey Kotchman on the Red Sox roster. While he has improved greatly in the past few weeks, Ortiz will benefit from some days off. It may be the single greatest factor that saves his career. All of the burden has fallen on Ortiz after Manny was traded. With Victor and J. Bay both now in the lineup and with any contribution from J. D. Drew, Ortiz should be helpful down the stretch. So, I see less 2010 playing time for the big guy and a batting average better than .227. But let's face it-his current 19 home runs and 72 runs batted in still aren't too shabby.
Francisco Liriano- (SP Twins) I don't write too much about declining numbers for pitchers because I believe pitchers are more prone to volatility year to year. But I am really concerned about Liriano. He is now on the disabled list with arm fatigue. Maybe it's because he threw so much last season after coming off surgery. Maybe it's because he is trying to push that old baseball up to the plate with greater velocity than he has available to him. At any rate, his numbers are in free fall. He is 5-12 with a 5.80 earned run average. One can not remain in a starting rotation on a club like Minnesota with that type ERA. Opponents are hitting .278 against him and he has a WHIP of 1.53. I don't hold much hope of Liriano's fastball returning to form. If the breaking pitches are taking a toll on his arm, the decline will continue. Other pitchers have come back from serious arm fatigue issues after surgery. I hope I'm wrong about Liriano, but I don't see much room for optimism based upon his 2009 performance.
But, I do think he'll be better than this year with off season rest.
Kerry Wood- (RP Indians) I believe in Kerry Wood. I believe in the fastball and I believe in the breaking ball. I believe in the head and the heart. I think he will be an outstanding set-up man or closer in 2010. He'll cost his team 10.5 million dollars. Will it be the Indians? They'd sure like to find someone to take him off their hands. More because of the money than anything else. Wood needs to pitch regularly to stay sharp. He needs to get the ball. His arm responds fairly well to work, even after his injuries. He has to locate to be successful. His command is the issue, not his stuff. He has two good pitches. He needs to use them both. When he's wild he grooves pitches and gets clobbered. Other times I have seen good hitters hit his good stuff. That happens. It happens to all pitchers. But I believe in Kerry Wood and I think he'll have a great 2010 somewhere.
Alfonso Soriano- LF Cubs) Ever see him hop before catching a fly ball? What's that all about? Anyway, Soriano might just be the streakiest hitter I have ever seen. When he's in a hot streak, which hasn't been often this season, he hits the ball a mile. He still has great difficulty with low and away sliders, a hole he should have closed years ago. As a second baseman perhaps his streaks could be tolerated. As a corner outfielder, he needs more consistent production. Now he is seeing the game from a totally different perspective much more often--the bench. Soriano has lost 40 points on his batting average this season, down from .280. He has 19 home runs compared to 29 last season, but there still is a month and a half left. He has stolen only 9 bases. That's a dramatic shift in his game. But I heard that a player actually has to get on base to steal. If that's true, Soriano could be in trouble. Soriano is allergic to taking a base on balls. If he can see it, he swings at it. But he isn't Pablo Sandoval. I think what you see of Alfonso Soriano is who and what he is--a streaky hitter that can carry a team for a week and then go into free
fall decline for a month.
There are many, many more who have broken everyone's hearts and killed many, many fantasy season. These are but a few.