Entering Thursday, Carlos Gonzalez had homered in four straight games and gone deep six times over the previous eight contests. His walk rate remains low, but he has improved in that area since last season, and his current .897 OPS is highly impressive for a 23-year-old. Encouragingly, the lefty has had more success against southpaws than right-handers this season, and Gonzalez has also performed better on the road, so he's no product of Coors Field. He's posted an insane .396/.429/.787 line during August, so it looks like the prospect is here to stay. Since he's also been successful on eight of his nine stolen base attempts, you're looking at a future fantasy star.
Tommy Hanson was lucky during his first month in the bigs, recording a 4-0 record with a 2.48 ERA despite an ugly 18:17 K:BB ratio. Since then, he hasn't regressed a bit, deciding to instead take luck out of the equation, as he's posted a 44:12 K:BB ratio. In fact, over his past four starts, Hanson has a 25:4 K:BB ratio over 24.2 innings. His slider is already among the better pitches in the league. It will be tough not ranking him as a top-20 fantasy starter entering next year.
Nick Markakis is a very good baseball player, but if his power ceiling is 20-25 home runs, and he stops stealing bases, his fantasy value becomes somewhat limited. Of course, at age 25, further development in the power department could be in store, and he'll be a nice contributor in the counting stats. It's just that he looks an awful lot like Hideki Matsui did in his prime, which certainly didn't cost as high a draft pick as Markakis typically does. He was never all that successful stealing bags in the minors, and after going just 10-for-17 on attempts last season, Markakis has been shy to run this year, swiping only four bases. Another concern is his huge drop in walk rate, as it's gone from 14|PERCENT| last year down to just 8|PERCENT| this season. It's an odd time during someone's career to show such regression.
It was nice to see Ben Zobrist homer Wednesday, because it was just his second long ball over his past 93 at-bats. In fact, he's slugged just .302 during August. His plate discipline has remained the same since the break (22:19 K:BB ratio), and he's continued to steal bases, but it looks like the too good to be true first half has come to a screeching halt. Then again, Zobrist has still been seeing plenty of at-bats as the Rays' cleanup hitter, so there's going to be plenty of opportunity for him to be productive from here on out.
Since moving to the bullpen in the middle of July, Kris Medlen has been flat-out dominant, posting a 1.06 ERA, 1.00 WHIP with a 21:3 K:BB ratio over 17.0 innings. He's only an option in deep or NL-only fantasy leagues, obviously, but the Braves have themselves a potential late-inning guy…And speaking of middle relievers who are thriving, look no further than Chris Perez, who hasn't allowed a single run over his last 13 appearances, posting a 15:4 K:BB ratio over that span. Perez looks like Cleveland's future closer.
With a .304/.371/.528 line, Ryan Zimmerman has finally lived up to the hype. Despite playing in just 116 games, his 24 home runs already match a career-high, and his 86 runs scored and 80 RBI are certainly nice as well. His walk rate is way up, and it's easy to forget Zimmerman is still just 24 years old. He'll enter 2010 as a top-five fantasy third baseman.
Since coming over to the National League, Cliff Lee has a 0.82 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and a 34:6 K:BB ratio over 33.0 innings, so it's safe to say he's enjoyed the switch. Since he won't even approach the 130.2 innings CC Sabathia pitched for Milwaukee after getting traded last season, it's doubtful Lee can finish in the top-five Cy Young voting, but don't be surprised if he's equally as effective as Sabathia was when on the mound.
If Stephen Strasburg hadn't signed at the last minute, everyone would have lost, most of all me, who sports a serious man-crush. Since he threw just 110 innings last year in college (and only 90 innings the year before that), expect no more than 150 next season, and 30 or so of those should come in the minors, so his upside in redraft leagues will be limited, even if he is able to dominate right from the start. In a keeper format, I'm not sure I could spend enough.
Matt LaPorta had a .917 OPS in Triple-A, including four homers over his past nine games before getting recalled to Cleveland. Since he's been guaranteed regular playing time, unlike when he got the call last time, LaPorta is a must-add in all but shallow fantasy leagues. Interestingly, the right-hander has fared much better against righties (.970 OPS) than southpaws (.750 OPS) this season, so don't worry about platooning him.
Homer Bailey has allowed five runs or more in five of his past seven starts, and in one of those where he didn't, he coughed up three runs before leaving with an injury without retiring a single batter. Last year's disappointing campaign had been blamed on a decrease in fastball velocity and immaturity, so it's even more disconcerting seeing such struggles when both of those problems have seemingly been rectified. And the addition of the splitter, which led to a bunch of success in the minors this year, hasn't helped one bit at the big league level either. It's never wise to totally write off former top prospects, just look at Edwin Jackson this year, but Bailey now has a 79:73 K:BB ratio over 136.2 major league innings. His career ERA is 7.05. Bailey hasn't just failed to live up to high expectations, he's been brutally awful.
The Joe Mauer vs. Mark Teixeira MVP debate is comical, really. This is such a blowout, it's more objective than subjective. Anyone who doesn't realize just how "valuable" Mauer has been this season just doesn't get it, plain and simple. Even in 1-catcher formats, he has to be considered as a top-five pick in fantasy leagues next year.
I've said it before, but it's worth repeating, Jayson Werth is one of the most underrated players in baseball, both in fantasy and reality. For the former, let's compare Werth's current stats to teammate Chase Utley: Werth - .270, 28 HR, 79 runs scored, 76 RBI, 13 SB. Utley - .297, 25 HR, 86 runs scored, 79 RBI, 14 SB. Closer than I realized, that's for sure. Werth is going to go down as one of the biggest steals of the 2009 fantasy season. And as for reality, Werth's defensive numbers are a bit down this year but still above average. In both 2007 (37.7 UZR/150) and in 2008 (35.6 UZR/150), he was easily the best defensive outfielder in all of baseball. Since he's also one of the best base stealers in the game (88|PERCENT| success rate throughout his career), Werth is a complete player. Opportunity and health have finally cooperated in 2009, leading to a career-year.
Barry Zito has quietly posted a 2.36 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with a 34:12 K:BB ratio over 42.0 innings since the All-Star break. He's always been a far better pitcher during the second half of seasons throughout his career, and it's nice he's finally turned into a solid No. 4 starter for the Giants, although he's still not quite earning that contract. Fun fact: when Zito gets four runs of support, he's 104-6 during his career.
Michael Bourn has been one of the best bargains of the 2009 fantasy season. He's still not all that valuable to the Astros, but he has a .291 batting average, and his 46 stolen bases easily lead the National League. Moreover, Bourn is on pace to score 105 runs as well. Not bad for someone who hit a disgusting .229 last season. The difference? BABIP. He had a .291 BABIP last year, and it's all the way up to .367 this season. Considering his career-mark is .299, let someone else buy him in 2010. Bourn has increased his walk rate as well as his line drive percentage while also hitting fewer pop ups, but for the most part, his batting average has been heavily influenced by luck.
Since the All-Star break, Rich Harden has been pretty much unhittable, recording a 1.64 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. The WHIP is even more remarkable when you consider his walk rate (2.86 BB/9) over that span. Of course, that matters little when opposing batters are hitting .136 against you. Like most years, Harden's ERA is much better than his FIP suggests it should be, but that's mostly because his career BABIP is .280, so that discrepancy should remain consistent. He's actually been extremely unlucky with home runs in 2009, as his 17.5|PERCENT| HR/F rate reveals. Harden's xFIP is a strong 3.70, and his 10.53 K/9 mark would tie him for second with Tim Lincecum in all of baseball if he qualified. While it appears Harden is a 150-inning max guy, it's been encouraging not to see him suffer some sort of serious arm injury for the second straight season. And he can be extremely effective during those 150 frames. Like usual, he'll enter 2010 with a bunch of risk and a ton of upside, because when on the mound, he's one of the five best pitchers in baseball.