Inspired by the Yahoo Sports' Fantasy Series of nearly the same name, I decided to post my own list. Here are the players I'm unlikely to own:
Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers - Don't get me wrong, Rivers is a fantastic real-life player, but last year the Chargers had an easy schedule in terms of pass defenses faced, gave up a lot of passing yards themselves and had an ineffective running game for most of the season. In other words, the team had to score a lot, the passing game was by far its best way of doing so (Rivers' 8.4 YPA led the NFL) and it faced weak pass defenses. Even so, Norv Turner called Rivers' number just 486 times, 12th among the 18 QBs who played all 16 games. Now, LaDainian Tomlinson might bounce back, and he might not, but he's unlikely to be significantly worse than the 3.8 yards per carry he averaged last year. If he's better, count on Turner calling his number more and Rivers' even less. The return of Shawne Merriman should also improve the defense, something that's not good for fantasy quarterback production.
Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams - Jackson has a chance to be very good given his skill set, his huge role in the offense and the Rams' vastly improved offensive line. But you'll probably have to use a mid first-round pick to get a player on a below-average team who's missed significant time the last two years. I'd prefer a player on a good offense like Steve Slaton.
Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans - Like Rivers, Johnson's a great player, and he'll probably put up good fantasy numbers. But the Texans don't target Johnson all that often down the field (just four catches of 40-plus, tied 14th) or from in close (just nine targets from inside the 10, 9th). That's fine for your run-of-the mill top-15 receiver, but not for one who's going off the board in the top three. Essentially, Johnson (13.7 YPC) is the team's possession look while Kevin Walter (15.7 YPC), who often sees single coverage, is the more frequent downfield option. Combine that with Johnson's injury history (10 games missed in four years), and I'm not willing to pay retail.
Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots - What's not to like about 223 receptions in two years, easily the most in the NFL? In a PPR league, I won't argue with that, but in a standard league Welker belongs in the mid-to-late 20s at the position, not in the teens where he'll likely be drafted. Why? Because Welker is neither fast nor big, meaning he's not going to get behind defenses, and he's not likely to be a factor in the red-zone. When every star in the universe aligned for him in 2007 (no reliable RB, his QB threw 50 TD, Randy Moss was drawing the maxmium amount of coverage a receiver can draw), Welker scored 8 TD. That's his penthouse ceiling if you will. Last year's three TDs on 111 catches is more realistic, but lets give him four or five with Brady back. At 10.4 yards per catch (his consistent three-year average), Welker needs a whopping 96 catches just to crack 1,000 yards. That means almost perfect health and virtually no drop-off in performance or role gets you Deion Branch's best year. Give me someone with upside like DeSean Jackson or Anthony Gonzalez instead.
Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys - Maybe Roy Williams plays to his physical capacity and stays healthy, and maybe he doesn't. But the Cowboys just lost one of the top-five receivers in NFL history, and I don't think we can cavalierly assume there will be no drop-off and keep Romo in the top five at the position. Moreover, a healthy Felix Jones should be a bigger part of the offense, and even Tashard Choice showed he was a quality back at times last year. The Cowboys might well elect to run more.
Darren Sproles, RB, San Diego Chargers - Sproles was clearly better than last year's incarnation of LaDainian Tomlinson - Sproles averaged 5.4 yards per carry and a whopping 11.8 yards per catch, a huge number for a back. And Sproles just got well paid ($6.6 million) as the team's franchise player. So the argument on his behalf is two-fold: (1) They'll use him more because he's better, and (2) they'll use him more because otherwise they wouldn't have paid him so much. But the problem with (1) is that he was better in a small sample and might be exposed with regular work, and (2) it's quite possible the team wanted him in large part as a return man, third-down back and |STAR|insurance|STAR| should something happen to Tomlinson. This is likely because Norv Turner himself said he wants to give Tomlinson 320 carries. And with Rivers averaging 8.4 YPA, that doesn't leave a whole lot left for Sproles. He's likely not to be playable so long as Tomlinson's healthy, and so he's merely another backup with some upside should the starter go down, but even then he's not likely to carry anything approaching a full load.
Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers - This one strikes me as so obvious I'd be almost embarrassed to write it except someone drafted him in the fourth or fifth round in one of the mocks I was in, and the selection was widely praised. Parker's been hurt the last couple years, has seen his per-carry average decline for three straight, runs behind a mediocre offensive line, isn't much of a receiver, isn't good at the goal line and has a now healthy former first-round pick, Rashard Mendenhall to compete with for carries.
Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego Chargers - Seems like there are a lot of Chargers here, but that's because I still believe Tomlinson and Antonio Gates will be Norv Turner's intended go-to players this year. Sure Jackson has size, decent speed and is coming off a very impressive per-target performance. But he'll always be the third option at best in the offense, and remember that Chris Chambers, the team's former top wideout target, was playing hurt for much of last season and should have a bigger role. Opportunity is the biggest obstacle for Jackson, and he's not polished enough to command 120-plus targets irrespective of the other options on his team. As such his upside, particularly with Gates being the first look in the red zone, is limited.
Owen Daniels, TE, Houston Texans - He's a good source of yards, which isn't a bad thing, but the Texans do not target him very often in the red-zone (his 21 targets there in the last two years combined are equal to what Dallas Clark got last year, and the two are only going a round or two apart). The Texans like to run the ball inside the 10 and target Kevin Walter and Andre Johnson, both big wideouts, when they decide to throw.
Lance Moore, WR, New Orleans Saints - Moore saw 11 targets inside the 10 last year, good for 5th most in the league, but like Welker, he has neither size nor speed, so he's entirely dependent upon a near-perfect scenario to repeat last year's 10 scores. It won't happen. Marques Colston is healthy and is likely to see his red-zone workload (which was very small even after he returned to full speed) increase, and Reggie Bush is also back, and he'll take a lot of the short catches that Moore got in his absence.