Joe Blanton currently has a 5.86 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP and pitches in a hitter's park. What does this mean? There's a worthy add likely available on your waiver wire, at least for those in deeper leagues. Blanton never lived up to Oakland's expectations, and although his strikeout rate increased after joining the Phillies last season, he didn't improve his performance like most pitchers do when leaving the AL for the Senior Circuit. And while it appears Blanton has been even worse in 2009, he's been rather unlucky, and the huge jump in K rate (8.18 K/9) makes him interesting moving forward. His .338 BABIP is the sixth highest in the NL and 39 points higher than his career mark. Moreover, his strand rate (.649) is the fifth lowest in the National League, and his 16|PERCENT| HR/F ratio is also extreme, which helps explain his solid 4.07 xFIP. With a 20:4 K:BB ratio over his past three starts, Blanton qualifies as someone to watch, although with interleague play coming up and the AL East on Philadelphia's schedule, the time to pounce may not be until July.
I'll be the first to admit I never saw this coming from Miguel Tejada, who leads the National League with a .358 batting average. The power he showed during his prime isn't coming back at his age (?), and he's probably a sell-high candidate, but Tejada has certainly made it clear he's hardly done as a useful player. His contact rate (.93) is currently at a career-high.
While Chris Davis has failed to live up to the massive preseason hype, Nelson Cruz has actually surpassed it so far. Batting predominantly fifth or sixth in one of the better lineups in baseball, Cruz is on pace to finish the season with 49 homers, 99 runs scored, 125 RBI and 28 steals, which would make him an easy top-three fantasy asset. Of course, projecting like that rarely works, and all those strikeouts could lead to a lowered BA, but it's clear the Quadruple-A tag no longer applies. In fact, his .768 OPS against left-handers suggests he has potential to be even better from here on out.
I have no clue what to make of Howie Kendrick, who has shown more power and SB ability this year than ever before, yet his main strength, batting average, sits at an ugly .227. His .262 BABIP is nearly a full 100 points lower than his career mark (.360), but his plate discipline, or lack thereof (196:36 K:BB ratio over his big league career), never fit with such high averages. Since joining the Angels, Kendrick had always performed pretty well, but it was injuries that constantly held him back, so it's somewhat ironic to see him finally stay healthy, yet post a disappointing .617 OPS. I still believe in his talent and wouldn't mind buying low, but he's also a candidate to spend some time in the minors, and a hamstring pull could always be right around the corner as well.
Currently, all three non-New York AL East teams play in home parks that rank as more pitcher-friendly compared to last season, according to ESPN's Park Factors. Of course, it's just two months worth of data, but don't be surprised if they stand that way at the end of the 2009 season, and the reason behind it is simple – the new Yankee Stadium. Fenway isn't any less hitter-friendly than usual, but when a new stadium is introduced – and in this case, one that is playing like the most homer-prone venue ever – it affects the numbers for teams who play there on the road most frequently. Just something to consider when evaluating park effects.
I liked what the Braves did with the Nate McLouth trade. Sure, he's no Gold Glove center fielder like voters would have you believe, but he'll be a fine defender as a corner once Jordan Schaefer is recalled. While McLouth may not be a star (career .801 OPS), he's a massive upgrade for the Braves' outfield, which is easily the team's biggest weakness. McLouth is a fantastic base stealer (93|PERCENT| career success rate), is 27 years old, so he's entering his prime and more seasons like 2008 could be in store, and he's also affordable. With the NL East far weaker than expected, and Tommy Hanson getting called up (finally!), Atlanta might as well go for it. As for the fantasy fallout, the big winner is Andrew McCutchen. He probably won't be a huge help in mixed leagues right away unless you're desperate for steals, and I'd assume he's long gone in all NL-formats, but the trade makes more sense for Pittsburgh considering McCutchen's presence. It's just too bad they couldn't get a true blue chip prospect in return.
Interesting decision by the Yankees to move Phil Hughes to the bullpen. On one hand, Chien-Ming Wang has been quite effective since joining New York in 2005, and he impressed over his last two relief appearances. His repertoire also works better as a starter, whereas Hughes' power arm could easily translate as a setup guy. Still, Wang's poor outing Thursday complicates matters, and if Brian Bruney can come back strong, it's unlikely Hughes' stint as a reliever lasts long, and he'll be back starting soon enough, either in New York or Triple-A. With a 21:3 K:BB ratio over his previous three starts, Hughes still looks like a potential No. 2 starter. As for Joba Chamberlain, aside from the obvious reasons he should remain in the rotation, GM Brian Cashman offered some interesting additional thoughts on the matter this week, stating that since Chamberlain's injury last season, his velocity typically doesn't pick up until the 35-40 pitch range, essentially ruling out any chance whatsoever of Chamberlain moving back to the pen.
I recently offered Jair Jurrjens, Trevor Hoffman and LaTroy Hawkins for Jon Lester, and while I can understand why it was rejected, his reply "I would be buying high on Jurrjens and selling low on Lester" got me thinking. Even if that were true, which I agree it is, does that automatically mean it's a bad trade still? Jurrjens has surely been lucky - .270 BABIP, 5.1|PERCENT| HR/F ratio – and his current 40:23 K:BB ratio hardly matches his 2.59 ERA. However, is it possible he was really lucky in April, which can't be taken away at this point, and his improvement in May (2.7:1 K:BB ratio with a strong G/F rate) suggests an inevitable implosion may not necessarily be forthcoming? I actually do think it's time to sell Jurrjens, but that has more to do with his upcoming schedule – ChC, Pit, @Bal, @Bos, Bos. While his ERA may never again look so pretty, this is a good pitcher not skating by purely on luck.
Sticking with the buy-low, sell-high problem witnessed in many fantasy leagues these days, maybe a better strategy in some cases is to target sell-high guys, such as Carl Crawford. After yet another stolen base Thursday, he's on pace to finish the season with 95 bags. I doubt many believe he'll keep that torrid pace, but the thing is, unlike a hitter bashing an inordinate amount of homers, steals are more sustainable, as it's a skill that has more to do with will than anything else. Sure, his opportunities will drop when his BABIP comes down to earth, and a 94|PERCENT| success rate will be tough to maintain, but there's no reason why Crawford can't swipe another 40 from here on out. Back healthy and batting atop the best lineup he's ever been in, Crawford makes sense to target for another reason – his owner is likely well ahead in the SB category, making him more expendable.
I really hope I'm wrong, but I got the Lakers in six.