Nine out of ten ESPN analysts pick the Lakers to win the NBA title. Let's look at some reasons why they should be right.
1) The Lakers have the more championship-ready superstar. Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard are the superstars in this matchup, the leaders for their respective teams that give the team an identity and have helped propel them to the Finals. Howard is a dominant big man, especially on defense, and this is a key to championship basketball. In every other "intangible", though, Kobe has the advantage. Kobe has been here before, with five previous NBA Finals experiences and (as the Kobe puppet points out to the LeBron puppen) THREE championship rings. This gives Bryant a seasoning and readiness for the big stage that Howard, who has never been there before, simply can't have. Also, Kobe's game is such that he can be depended upon to produce at a high level game-in and game-out, for the full 48 minutes. Howard, on the other hand, is likely to miss some key game action with foul trouble. Howard did a good job of hitting the big free throws against the Cavs, but he still will have to prove and re-prove that he can keep doing it whereas Kobe is certified. And here's a sneaky point: both Kobe and Howard have five technical fouls in this postseason, and at seven the player is suspended for a game. Kobe is savvy enough that I'm confident that he doesn't get suspended, but Howard has already had one technical foul called and revoked and I'm not quite as sure he can keep his cool and avoid missing a vital game.
2) Gasol is the best "second best player" in the NBA. For some reason, the Lakers are often portrayed as a one-man team as though Kobe were carrying them alone. This couldn't be further from the truth, as Pau Gasol is a very underrated player that gives them an advantage against every other team. Gasol would be the best player on probably 20 of the 30 teams in the league. He led the NBA in offensive rating this season, was fourth in win shares, fifth in true shooting percentage and field goal percentage, and finished eighth in rebounds per game. In the postseason he is averaging 18 points, 11 boards and two blocks on 57|PERCENT| shooting from the field. The upshot is that he is an absurdly efficient scorer that also crashes the boards and even has a bit of a defensive impact as well. Yes, Kobe is the best player, and his presence opens up the paint for Gasol to work. On the other hand, as a young player Gasol was the centerpiece of a 50-win team with no other star player. Dwyane Wade can't say that. Neither can Chris Bosh, Paul Pierce, or Tracy McGrady. Heck, Kobe can't even say that, as the Lakers never won more than 45 games when Kobe was on his solo mission. This Lakers team belongs to Mr. Bryant, but Gasol is a hugely important weapon that takes them from solid to championship contender.
3) Good Odom makes them nigh unbeatable. Lamar Odom has the talent to be one of the five or ten best players in the league, but he has never been able to consistently translate that talent to results. Nevertheless, as a third option on these Lakers, when he shows up the team is almost impossible to beat. Odom is longer and more athletic than the Magic forwards that dominated the Cavs, and he also is physical enough to beat them up on the glass. Odom didn't get much benefit of the doubt for his poor play in the WCF, but he played most of the series with a bad back that hobbled him. Once the back started getting better, Odom started showing up in those last two games where the Lakers blew the Nuggets off the court. If Odom's back and mindset hold up in the Finals, he gives the Lakers arguably three of the top four players in this series.
4) A team full of quality X-factors. One of the reasons that the Magic beat the Cavs is that the Magic has many players that can step up and produce at any given time. Well, the Lakers have even more of those types of players than the Magic do. Trevor Ariza, Andrew Bynum, Derek Fisher, Sasha Vujacic, Shannon Brown, or Luke Walton could all step up on any given night and provide the key defense, the big shots, and/or the needed energy to push the Lakers over the top.
5) It just feels right. I really don't want the Lakers to win. I mean, I REALLY don't want the Lakers to win. That said, it just feels like the stage is set for them to take this title. All year they have been one of the three acknowledged super teams, and they have managed to go through the entire playoffs without having to face either of the others. Kobe and Phil Jackson both need this title to cement their legacies, and it is hard to imagine them losing. And the Magic are a very good team, but wouldn't it just seem strange for them to be the champs? The same way that my gut just told me that the Nuggets couldn't really beat the Lakers despite having enough talent, I just get that same vibe about the Magic winning the title. I hope I'm wrong.
Coming soon: reasons why the Magic could win it as the underdog.