Chris Carpenter remains a huge injury risk, but it's clear he's back to being one of the game's best pitchers when on the mound. Chances are he eventually gives up a run this season, but Monday's start against the Brewers was one of the most dominant performances of 2009. Despite the shaky status of his arm, Carpenter is throwing harder than ever, as his current average fastball velocity (92.3 mph) is the highest of his career. Moreover, no NL pitcher has thrown a harder slider (87.8 mph average) this year, with only Justin Verlander (88.9 mph) besting him. Carpenter is filthy, and while not on the DL, he will likely continue to pitch like a top-10, if not top-five, fantasy starter.
While Jason Bay has been a very good, not great, player throughout his career, he's performed like a superstar in 2009, posting a 1.018 OPS with good plate discipline. He's hitting just as well on the road as at home, so the terrific start isn't just a product of Fenway Park. Dating back to 2005, he's been successful on 51 of his 55 SB attempts, which is a remarkable 93|PERCENT| rate. His defense is pretty terrible, but fantasy owners don't care, and while he's playing a bit over his head right now, only an injury will prevent a career-high in RBI, as only one AL batter (Vernon Wells) has come to the plate with more runners on base this season.
Tim Lincecum has seen a dip in velocity this season, and while that's concerning after Bruce Bochy abused him so badly last year, the results remain strong, so hopefully it's nothing to worry about long-term. In fact, he's actually pitched better this season than during last year's Cy Young campaign, with improved command (2.62 BB/9) and an even greater K rate (11.57 K/9). Lincecum has been unlucky, with the highest BABIP (.367) in the National League. However, he's also been fortunate, evidenced by his 2.3|PERCENT| HR/F rate. He's done an excellent job limiting homers throughout his short career, but that number is sure to increase. Still, his xFIP (2.68) is the best in baseball and suggests his ERA should continue to decrease.
It looks like Gary Sheffield isn't finished, after all. Injuries have opened the door for regular playing time, and he's rewarded the Mets by slugging three homers with 11 RBI over the past six games. Impressively, he's also walked (22) more than he's fanned (15), and with all the health problems in New York, Sheffield could be fixture in the middle of the lineup for quite some time. He obviously remains a liability with his glove, and at age 40, he's an even greater injury risk than in the past, but it's clear last season's struggles had more to do with health than a sign of demise. Hitting behind David Wright and his .446 OBP has its perks as well.
After surrendering seven runs over one inning Monday, you don't need me to tell you to worry about Ervin Santana. Unfortunately, that performance can't be thrown out as an isolated incident in an otherwise long season, as Santana's average fastball velocity has decreased from 94.4 mph in 2008 to 90.7 mph this year, which is significant and a big red flag. It's unclear how long he'll be able to pitch with his damaged arm, but at this point, it looks like it will affect Santana's ability even if he's able to remain on the mound. It's not like fantasy owners can try to trade him right now, so benching him is probably the best method. Hope for a solid start against the Mariners on Sunday, and then see if you can get anything in return before the inevitable Tommy John surgery.
After a near perfect game Monday, Clay Buchholz is sporting a 1.30 ERA with 49 strikeouts over 48.1 innings. He also possesses an impressive 1.59 GO/AO ratio. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are reportedly in "no hurry" to trade Brad Penny and may soon have John Smoltz ready to join the rotation. I understand the theory of never having too much pitching, and it's not like the Red Sox need to make changes sitting in first place, but Buchholz can't waste away in the minors for much longer, and trade suitors should be lining up if a deal is the only way of getting him into a major league rotation. With David Ortiz's performance, Boston could certainly use one more potent bat as well.
Remember all the puff pieces in spring training about Jeff Francoeur's new approach at the plate? Those authors sure hope you don't, because he's looked worse than ever in 2009, sporting a .629 OPS. His name has recently been brought up in trade rumors, but it's doubtful the Braves could get much in return with his trajectory going in the wrong direction. Francoeur has a 17:1 K:BB ratio during May, and his power has all but disappeared. The Braves' outfield is holding back an otherwise good team.
I really like Wandy Rodriguez, but few pitchers have been more fortunate so far. For one, his miniscule 1.5|PERCENT| HR/F rate is the lowest in the NL, so surely he'll start giving up more homers. Also, a retroactive scoring change made five runs unearned during his last start Monday, which was huge. Still, any pitcher with a 1.71 ERA has likely been "lucky" one way or the other, and I wouldn't necessarily be shopping the talented lefty, as his breakout looks legitimate, especially since it appears he's finally solved his troubles on the road.
Over his last two starts, Max Scherzer has posted a 20:2 K:BB ratio over 13.0 innings, revealing his high ceiling. He's still too inefficient to pitch deep into games and remains an injury risk, but not many pitchers can flash that strikeout rate while inducing so many groundballs (1.31 G/F), which is the type of combo that leads to staff aces. More wins are sure to follow.
Alexei Ramirez has really taken to batting second, and he's raised his OPS more than 100 points over the past 10 games. His overall numbers still look ugly, but the opportunity to buy-low has probably passed, and there are signs of big things to come. After posting a 61:18 K:BB ratio last season, he's at 18:12 this year in 330 fewer at-bats. Moreover, after getting caught on nine of his 22 stolen base attempts in 2008, he's been successful on nine of his 10 tries this year. His raw power should resurface soon, and U.S. Cellular Field ranked as the second-best home run venue according to Park Factors last season.
James Loney is on pace to finish the year with 122 RBI. With a .380 slugging percentage…Ichiro Suzuki has more intentional base on balls (five) than regular walks (three)…Nick Johnson leads baseball in line-drive percentage (31.2), while Derrek Lee ranks dead last (11.7|PERCENT|)…Brad Hawpe leads the majors with a .474 batting average with RISP, while Troy Tulowitzki brings up the rear at .079…Bengie Molina has swung at an unfathomable 49.5|PERCENT| of pitches outside the strike zone in 2009, easily the most in baseball. Pablo Sandoval is second (46.6|PERCENT|), so the Giants must really be preaching patience at the plate this year…For those of you in NL-only leagues, take a look at Padres middle reliever Edward "the last of the Mujicans." Over his last 5.0 innings, he has an 11:1 K:BB ratio, and he's impressed all season. It seems the Padres always unearth a dominant middle relief performance from an unknown every year, and it looks like Mujica is that guy in 2009.