Every year we run Don's columns on the Triple Crown races - this year, we'll make them part of the blog. By the way, if you're going to bet on a sporting event, there are few things more thrilling than putting your money on a big-time horse race.

Kentucky Derby-(Louisville, Kentucky) the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby is carded as race 11 this Saturday at Churchill Downs, approximate scheduled post time is 6:24 PM. The field consists of 20 entrants who are vying to have their names forever etched in racing lore. The weather forecast is projecting scattered showers Saturday with mild temperatures with a 60|PERCENT| chance of precipitation.

The lead up to this year's race has been extra special because we have identified a very deep class of three year olds, something that I expect history to prove as this group exchanges blows all the way up until the Cup. I feel we have nine legitimate horses that could win even with the recent defections of some solid runners; certainly that has not been the case in recent history.

With such a talented class, it seems certain that this Derby will be a gambler?s delight which hasn?t been the case the past few years. Reiterating, since Spectacular Bid, we went 20-plus years with a favorite not winning the Derby and since then and including Fu Peg in 2000 there have been four winning favorites. Even looking closer, in 2001 they changed the format where each horse became a separate betting interest. Since then, four of those eight years were either won by the betting favorite or if not the actual favorite, a very closely bet 2nd choice, and that has happened with expansive wagering fields.

Roughly 90 days ago, we saw the arguably the greatest Super Bowl ever played; this could be the greatest Derby ever run. The contenders have all moved forward, and due to the various different paths there is a true convergence at Churchill Downs.

I try to always remind my audience that all of these horses are doing two things for the very first time: going a mile and a quarter & carrying 126 lbs (except Desert Party who did carry 126 once). Another important factor is the size of this field which could turn a contender into a hard luck trip horse that never factors. Despite all that, maybe this biggest factor for 2009 is the recently changed medication rules specifically linked to steroid use. It was widely known the 2008 winner Big Brown used steroids. While he still proved steroids or not, he was a champion, one could easily surmise the boost enhanced his performance. Not the case this year as the powers of the sport have leveled the playing field - we are in for one heck of a race.

The likely favorite, I Want Revenge, to me is a very easy horse to play against. In Cali stakes races, he has already been beaten by his main foes he will see again today. Sure he took to the dirt in New York, especially off a troubled trip in last, but who did he beat? I personally think the New York trail horses are the weakest of the Derby trail bunch. Young rider Talamo certainly is a rising star, but at 19 on this stage, he has a heavy burden to shoulder in his first Derby mount. Toss in the intangible that the controversial connections of IEAH stable bought into this guy as well as the often maligned trainer Mullins, I don?t see the racing Gods allowing them the roses when feel good stories in Jones & McCarthy exist.

My Derby fever doesn?t end with just the Derby in 2009; it actually takes a personal twist. As an Ohio Valley Region horse owner, I have spent my career racing horses at such venues as Beulah Park, Presque Isle Downs, Charlestown and my main operation based out of Mountaineer Park. Along that ride I teamed up with one of the most underrated trainers in the industry in S. Matthew Kintz. This year?s edition of the Humana Distaff will include a Kintz runner that he has taken from a claimer to graded stakes winning lass that sports a resume with victories over Seventh Street & Dream Rush. And Bejarano, who knows a thing or two about riding good mares, as he was the regular pilot of Ginger Punch. The bags are packed from Chester, and we are on our way - beware.

Normally around the beginning of April, I have narrowed my horse down to one or two choices making it easy to write about. Not the case this year, as I actually had to unplug to sort through all this. Picture this, I packed my bags and went to the Allegheny National Forest in NW Pennsylvania where cell service isn?t even available. I took my pole and went fishing, all that filled my ears and eyes were sunshine and the sounds of nature. The environment cleared my mind to the irony of what I was doing... fishing... so let?s go fishing and take a closer look, graded analysis following my selections.

Contenders:

#6 Friesan Fire- I view this guy as the forgotten one which is easy to understand since he hasn?t been out since March 14. Should he step up and win he would erase another long drought in Derby history - horses coming off a seven-week layoff. Two years ago, we broke the Breeders Cup Juvenile winner jinx and last year we broke the fourth career start phobia (93 years) so maybe it's just time for change. Maybe this pick is a bit sentimental as trainer Jones has decided to step away from racing (after this year) while at the pinnacle of his game, reminiscent of a Barry Sanders. Like Sanders, he has done everything right in his sport having been the runner-up in the last two Derbys. Jim Squires, who bred Monarchos was recently quoted in the Blood Horse as saying this about Jones, ?If they had a picture in the dictionary to the word horseman, they?d put Larry Jones' photo there.? It would be fitting for all Jones has gone through to go out on top. This horse is fresh, and if he takes another step forward he will be awfully dangerous. Should the track come up wet, I think his chances only get better as he scored mightily over the slop in New Orleans. He has been training forwardly, and the only question seems to be if he can get the distance. This is the obvious feel good, slight upset pick.

#2 Musket Man- when this guy won the Tampa Derby my first words about five steps after the wire: ?He?s a pitch come first Saturday in May.? I have since taken a drastic change in that stance. Trainer Ryan has seemed to improve him every start, I loved his Illinois Derby albeit against lesser known foes. Naysayers will note he was a bargain basement purchase, with a suspect Derby pedigree for a lesser known outfit that has taken the B road to the Derby. With his draw, it reminds of Steppenwolfer in the 2006 Derby. He sat, saved ground, moved and ran a very good third; I think this guy can actually even make a little more noise than that. I love the way he has run in the lane - my wise guy horse at a big price.

#15 Dunkirk- everyone knows somebody that's a "black cat" - come on I'm sure you can dig someone up in your life. Mine is a buddy of mine who isn?t even right twice a day like a broken clock. A few years ago I was involved in a trotter who couldn?t lose unless someone tied him to the starting gate, and my buddy bet $2 on him to win and mushed him (broke and ran last). Well, he called me a few days ago to talk Derby, and during our discussion said only one thing with extreme confidence, ?you can have Dunkirk, he?ll be nowhere to be found.? For those Dunkirk fans, bet a little extra. In all seriousness this is a strong contender but reminds me of Curlin, not sure this stage is where he will perform, I think he?ll do more down the road, but an obvious contender based on his talent.

#16 Pioneer of the Nile- the most logical choice and should be the betting favorite. He already owns two decisions over the morning line favorite. The reason he?s not the favorite is he?s done all his work out west and doesn?t have a start on dirt. Had he taken ?Revenge?s? path, their roles would be reversed. From what I have heard and witnessed, this guy needs a target to run at, the good news for this camp is he will get it. Gomez says he knows there is more in the tank, I expect we will see this guy make a huge run and then dog fight similar to what Silver Charm did for Baffert years ago. Hall of Fame connections and world rider Gomez aboard, too many positives to worry about the surface switch.

Selections: 6-2-15-16

Betability: excellent betting race, as mentioned I feel any of nine horses could win, and a bunch more could run underneath. This is a very good year to play a hunch or feeling - there won?t be a pool or wager I would chastise anyone for playing in.

Suggested Wagers:
#2 & #11 to Win & Place for 1 unit
#2, #6, & #11 wheeled first and second in Exacta?s with All for 1 unit
Trifecta wheel with the #5, #6, #7, #12, #13, #15, #16 with the #1, #2,#3, #5, #6,#7, #10, #12,#15,#16, #19 with, #2,#5,#11 for 1 unit

Saver Exacta box, #1, #3, #5, #6, #7, #10, #12, #13, #15, #16 & #19 for 2 units

Should you be interested in the Oaks on Friday, my pick is #6 Rachel Alexander. Some pundits actually believed she could have been competitive against the boys. She simply towers over this field and will likely be 1/2 in the process.

An even better treat on the Oaks undercard is the snubbed Horse of The Year for 2008 Zenyatta who makes her '09 bow in the Louisville Handicap which is a Grade II. Interesting she makes a trip across the country to race when her connections stated they would rather race her then put another training mile in her. It?s an auspicious spot as she might not be full tilt, and she faces an up and coming mare in One Caroline who is undefeated in five tries and comes into this race perfectly prepped. Could be a table turner as last year Zenyatta trekked to Arkansas to face the then invincible Ginger Punch. Maybe the baton will be passed, or just maybe Zenyatta will embark on another magnificent season. Anyway you think, it?s a must watch 5th race.

Graded Analysis with fair value win odds

#6 Friesan Fire- 4 to 1, will fire, only needs to last, would be a deserving winner for connections.
#2 Musket Man- 14 to 1, big shot for a rags to riches story, upset special.
#15 Dunkirk- 9 to 2, cost 3.7 Million at auction and has been running like it.
#16 Pioneer of the Nile- 7 to 2, obvious choice that will offer more value than Revenge.
#7 Papa Clem- 18 to 1, if not for the poor local works, he would have been my top choice.
#5 Hold Me Back- 12 to 1, must handle dirt, but sire did that just fine here, moving late.
#13 I Want Revenge- 5 to 1, If not for my disdain for connections, could make a case.
#11 Chocolate Candy- 20 to 1, if you were a Real Quiet fan, then be a fan of him.
#12 General Quarters- 24 to 1, should my top pick not fire, my heart has him as my 2nd choice.
#19 Desert Party- 30 to 1, this is not Dubai, did some work on this side of the pond at 2.
#1 West Side Bernie- 22 to 1, have him rated way too low, pilot already has won a Derby.
#17 Summer Bird- 38 to 1, intriguing horse for lesser known connections, maybe underneath.
#10 Regal Ransom- 28 to 1, beat his more famed stable mate in last, just not sold on.
#4 Advice- 35 to 1, late runner comes back off two weeks, not classy enough.
#14 Atomic Rain- 50 to 1, working well and has a nice pedigree, I?ll stop there.
#3 Mr. Hot Stuff- 36 to 1, another with a chance, if you like the other Cali horses.
#8 Mine That Bird- 85 to 1, from here down you can start lining them out.
#20 Flying Private- 100 to 1, do you think post 20 can strike twice in back to back years?
#18 Nowhere to Hide- 250 to 1, late entrant won?t be hiding as he?s running up the track.
#9 Join in the Dance- 250 to 1, rabbit to ensure an honest pace then back through field.

Don Tiger
-Professional handicapper at equineinvestor.com