Josh Anderson isn't going to hit .341 all year long, but he needs to be owned in most formats right now. Injuries have opened the door for regular playing time, and although he's hitting toward the bottom of Detroit's lineup and offers little power, Anderson is a major threat on the basepaths. Over his last nine starts, he's stolen six bags, and during his brief major league career, he's posted an 85 percent success rate (17-for-20). This is no fluke, as Anderson averaged 46.7 steals per season over his six years in the minors. And that's not factoring in his 40-game stint with Atlanta last season. With steals such a coveted commodity, Anderson is firmly on the fantasy radar.
It's safe to question what type of player Derrek Lee currently is. At age 33 and hitting in a stacked Chicago lineup, it's difficult to write the guy off, but his lack of power has become a huge concern. Over his final 325 at-bats last season, he hit just five homers, slugging just .390 after the All-Star break. He followed that up by hitting only one long ball over 20 spring training games and is stuck with just one home run on the 2009 season, with an ugly .313 slugging percentage. This futility is becoming a trend, and it's tough to rank him as even a top-20 first base option right now.
Joel Zumaya remains a big health risk, but he may very well factor into Detroit's closing mix at some point later this season. Fernando Rodney is 4-for-4 in save situations, but his K rate is way down (4.5 K/9 IP), and this is a pitcher who finished with a 4.91 ERA in 2008 and entered the year having blown a ridiculous 43 percent of his save chances throughout his career. Zumaya has actually been even worse throughout his career, blowing a mind-boggling 81 percent of his save opportunities. Of course, that stat is hardly perfect, since a BS can occur even when the pitcher isn't truly in a closing situation, but Zumaya clearly has the most upside in the Tigers' pen if finally healthy. So far, he's averaged 98.4 mph with his fastball, suggesting he's feeling just fine. With that kind of velocity, a dominant reliever could emerge.
Speaking of velocity, Oliver Perez is experiencing a decline, averaging a career-low 89.1 mph with his fastball this season. His K rate remains strong (8.48 K/9 IP), but for someone with such poor control (6.98 BB/9 IP), he can't afford being so hittable. A high BABIP (.354), unlucky HR/F rate (14.9 percent) and low strand rate (.514) reveal the obvious – his current 9.31 ERA will eventually come down. However, there's even more to dislike about the inconsistent hurler. Perez's LD|PERCENT| (32.2) is staggering, and his G/F ratio (0.33) is terrible. The Mets clearly should have spent the money on Derek Lowe instead. I'm not sure I could stomach rostering Perez even in NL-only formats.
Bruce Bochy had Rich Aurilia batting cleanup Monday. He can't be fired soon enough.
With an ERA of 3.73 and an xFIP of 4.59, Armando Galarraga was one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball last season, putting him toward the top of my avoid list entering 2009. I'm still not a huge believer, but there's no denying his skills have dramatically improved this year, as his K rate has increased from 6.35 K/9 IP last year to 8.88 K/9 IP this year. He's remained remarkably lucky, as just 5.9 percent of his flyballs have gone over the fence, and his strand rate is an unsustainable .862. Still, the big jump in K rate means he can't be ignored.
Speaking of luck, I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop when it comes to Joe Saunders. With a horrendous 4.68 K/9 IP mark last season, I gave zero credence to his impressive 3.41 ERA. This year, his peripherals are even worse, posting a 9:9 K:BB ratio with a truly horrible 2.56 K/9 IP mark. In fact, only Joel Pineiro (2.05) is worse among all qualified starters in baseball. And yet, Saunders' ERA is 3.41 and his WHIP is 1.232. For someone with a career .293 BABIP, last year's .267 mark and this season's .252 line suggest a major correction is imminent. Considering the Angels currently rank 29th in defensive efficiency, Saunders' performance looks all that more fluky and far from sustainable. His xFIP is 5.98. I don't care if you get 40 cents on the dollar, trade him as fast as you can.
James Loney is a fine player for the Dodgers, and his 4:15 K:BB ratio is tremendous. However, his lack of power makes him a fairly overrated fantasy property. He never hit more than three homers in any month last season and slugged just .413 after the break. Loney hit just one big fly in 89 spring at-bats, has yet to hit one this season, and his current Isolated Power is a miniscule .081. Like Casey Kotchman and Conor Jackson, Loney is a much better real life baseball player than a fantasy one.
There are some interesting minor leaguers who need to be monitored closely right now. Matt LaPorta is currently sporting a .368/.436/.706 line and would become an immediate upgrade over Ben Francisco in Cleveland's left field. Manager Eric Wedge has said he's not quite ready to give the kid a call up, but since Travis Hafner is once again hurting and on the DL, and the Indians are 8-14 sitting in last place in the AL Central, he may not have much of a choice. LaPorta could be a difference maker once given the chance…With Edwin Encarnacion shelved, Adam Rosales (1.233 OPS) is a must-add in NL-only formats…And with Mark Ellis also sidelined, the same could be said for Eric Patterson in AL-only leagues. He had two homers and nine steals in just 19 games in Triple-A this season…And for real deep AL-only formats, consider Mark Melancon, who posted an incredible 17:3 K:BB ratio with a 2.50 GO/AO ratio over 10.1 innings in Triple-A before the Yankees called him up last week. With Brian Bruney out, Melancon might already be the team's second best reliever.
I could listen to Jack in the Box's mini sirloin burgers commercial all day long. I simply can't get that song out of my head. "yippee ay ah mini sirloin burgers!! yippee ay ah mini sirloin burgers!!"
Kenshin Kawakami has been a big disappointment so far for the Braves, but he shouldn't be discarded in fantasy leagues. Always exhibiting terrific command in Japan, the biggest surprise has been his shaky control so far (4.57 BB/9 IP). Moreover, his shoulder has been giving him trouble since spring, although a recent cortisone shot seems to have alleviated the problem. Remember, during his 13 seasons in Japan, he was mostly part of six-man rotations, so there's going to be a transition phase. Kawakami's 7.48 K/9 IP mark shows he's hardly been overmatched, and his 1.44 G/F ratio is also highly encouraging. A ridiculous 23 percent of his flyballs have gone for homers, so expect a major regression to the mean there. He's been dropped in a couple of leagues of mine, and I've snatched him up in both.
As a former Rickie Weeks apologist, it figures the year I avoid him altogether is the one he starts realizing his vast potential. He'll never be a big help in batting average, and he's actually walking far less this season, but with five homers already, fantasy owners can hardly complain. He's also on pace to record 108 RBI and score 116 runs. Of course, Weeks remains a huge health risk, but with a career 84 percent SB success rate, expect more steals moving forward, giving up a bunch of upside.
I'd be shocked if Manny Pacquiao doesn't easily handle Ricky Hatton this weekend.
Melky Cabrera should be long gone in most fantasy leagues, but he now deserves consideration even in extremely shallow formats, as he's clearly overtaken Brett Gardner as the Yankees' center fielder. Austin Jackson may eventually replace him later this year, but Cabrera is more than capable of bouncing back after last season's disaster, and there's added potential with the way the new stadium has been playing. Sticking with Yankees who belong on fantasy rosters, Phil Hughes is certainly another one. Chien-Ming Wang's blowup may have been a blessing in disguise, forcing the team to turn to its former top prospect. Hughes dominated in the minors before his call up, posting a 19:3 K:BB ratio over 19.1 innings. With an uptick in velocity that had dropped last season, Hughes has the skills to maintain similar success in the majors.
I wasn't too high on Chris Dickerson entering the year, mainly because last season's impressive .304/.413/.608 line was aided so much by a crazy high .410 BABIP. After all, this is a 27-year-old with a career .775 OPS in the minors – hardly a top prospect. Of course, his decent power/speed combo has value in fantasy leagues, even with the inevitable drop in BA, and it's not like I predicted this much of a horrendous start. If he wants to return playing regularly once he's healthy, Dickerson needs to stop striking out so frequently (17 Ks in just 44 ABs).
This Bulls/Celtics series has easily been one of the very best of the decade.
With the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the ninth in a 4-3 game Wednesday, can someone please explain to me why manager Jerry Manuel pinch hit Omir Santos? Anyone? The move even took Santos by surprise, as he was catching in the bullpen when the switch was announced. Now, Ramon Castro is no All-Star, but he was 2-for-4 during the game, and Santos is a 28-year-old with a career .651 OPS in the minors. And in a bases jammed situation against a pitcher who had already walked two batters and hit another that very inning, was inserting a hitter with zero walks over 25 at-bats this season the wisest decision? Very curious to say the least.
Soon to be 37 years old and after signing a two-year contract, it was safe to question how Manny Ramirez would perform in 2009. After one month, it's pretty clear his 2007 season (.881 OPS) was an aberration, not a sign of a looming decline. Apparently still happy in L.A., Ramirez looks like one of the three best hitters in the game. And pitchers are treating him as such, as he's been walked 19 times already, putting him on a pace to finish with 140 – his career-high is 100, set in 2006. Ramirez hasn't been able to keep up with last year's .743 slugging percentage, but his current .494 OBP is a career-best. Durability remains a concern, but Ramirez would be worthy of a first round pick if a fantasy draft were held today.