Here's a quick glance through the NFL Draft with my initial thoughts on players that may change the fantasy landscape.
First round ...
-Matthew Stafford (DET) and Mark Sanchez (NYJ). These guys will never be on my roster since I don't take rookie QBs even with last year's success of Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. The bigger question is their impact on existing players. Calvin Johnson has shown he can be productive with anyone throwing him the ball, so Stafford's strong arm probably won't hurt his value. The Jets WR corps are a more open question since Sanchez could struggle initially. Josh Freeman (TB) probably isn't even a fantasy factor this year.
-Rookie WRs who may have upside, but I won't touch in a fantasy draft unless I have a deep roster: Heyward-Bey (OAK), Percy Harvin (MIN), Kenny Britt (TEN) and Hakeem Nicks (NYG). Heyward-Bay is on the Raiders so projecting any production is risky. Harvin won't be a top option intially and has a questionable QB behind him. Nicks and Britt seem unlikely to be big parts of the offense right away.
-Rookie WRs who may buck the first-year poor fantasy trend: Michael Crabtree (SF) and Jeremy Maclin (PHI). I'm not drafting these guys anywhere but a very late pick, but Crabtree could be the focus of the arial attack (even with questionable skill at QB) and Maclin could benefit from DeSean Jackson's growth (I expect a big leap this year). I also love Brian Robiskie (CLE) in the second round but not sure he'll do enough in Year 1 to justify a presensce on most fantasy rosters.
-Donald Brown (IND) likely means a true time share in Indy. Were Indy's problems rushing the ball last year the offensive line or injuries and poor performance from Joseph Addai? Taking a first-round pick on Brown likely indicates it's not the line. The backfield could develop into a situation where Brown is Mr. Inside and Addai is the designated pass catcher. Either way, Addai's value has to drop considerably with his poor season and viable backup.
-When I see Knowshon Moreno's situation, it kind of reminds me of Steve Slaton last year in Houston. Denver has number of mediocre veterans (Ryan Torian, Correll Buckhalter, J.J. Arringon) in the mix that could cloud his outlook come draft day. However, he'll have the most upside and could be a real steal if he gets drafted late. Of course, Slaton was a third-round pick, so Moreno has more visability.
-Chris Wells (AZ) could definitely be an impact fantasy player if he's truly going to get the ball right away. He may have the highest ADP ranking among first-round draft picks this summer.
-Braylon Edwards and Anquan Boldin didn't get traded. History tells us that means they'll probably stay with their current squads. But their uncertain situations could depress their draft value if you have a league that drafts in the spring or early summer.
Beyond the first round ...
-Shonn Greene (NYJ) was a player I thought fell to far (3rd round) given his performance against top competition (even in a down year in the Big 10). He'll certainly be taken as an upside play with Thomas Jones (turning 31 this summer) ahead of him.
-Chase Coffman (CIN) is another interesting player later in the draft (3rd round). He was a machine in college fantasy leagues. Sure, that's probably a product of a pass-happy system, but Ben Utecht and Reginald Kelly don't seem like huge hurdles to climb in the depth chart.
-Travis Beckum (NYG) is another tight end with sleeper potential (3rd round). He was thought of as a first-round pick before last year's broken leg ended his season. Not that I'm taking rookie tight ends anywhere in the draft, but it won't surprise me if Coffman or Beckum emerge with sizable roles at some point in 2009.
-Austin Collie (IND) could win the third-receiver role for the Colts (4th round). That probably won't mean 2009 fantasy value - as the Colts may use last year's draft picks at TE more (Jacob Tamme and Tom Santi) in two-TE sets to get Dallas Clark in the slot more. But Collie will be someone to watch this summer, especially for keeper leagues.