ESPN's Buster Olney makes a list of the players most indispensable to their teams' chances of winning.
Here's his list:
1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
2. Johan Santana, Mets
3. Joe Mauer, Twins
4. Tim Lincecum, Giants
5. Manny Ramirez, Dodgers
6. Cliff Lee, Indians
7. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
8. Cole Hamels, Phillies
9. CC Sabathia, Yankees
10. Evan Longoria, Rays
Olney includes the caveat that he's omitting players like Roy Halladay whose teams have a very slim chance to contend this season.
Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus makes his own list (subscription required). This one's more scientific - based on the difference in runs produced by the player and his projected replacement. Interestingly, on Jaffe's list, there are no pitchers in the top 10 - (I'm assuming they were eligible). This isn't surprising because while PECOTA is stingy in all its projections (because of the possibility of injuries), it is with pitchers especially - only two are tabbed for 16 wins, and one for 15. Only seven pitchers are projected for more than 200 innings - (34 crossed the 200 IP threshold last year).
So take Jaffe's omission of pitchers with a grain of salt.
Incidentallly, here's my list:
1. Albert Pujols
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Hanley Ramirez
4. Chase Utley
5. Roy Halladay
6. David Wright
7. Manny Ramirez
8. Tim Lincecum
9. Miguel Cabrera
10. Johan Santana
I rank Halladay as the top pitcher in real life because he's so efficient, durable and reliable - if he played on a top team, he'd be a threat for 25 wins. Who cares if other pitchers have filthier stuff or are harder to hit when they're on?
ARod is a good defensive third baseman (as opposed to Hanley Ramirez who's a bad defensive shortstop), and he's more productive, so he gets the nod. Utley benefits a bit from his park, and second base has gotten deeper in recent seasons.
Manny Ramirez is a defensive liability, and I wouldn't count on last year's Dodgers stats. But in real life Russell Martin and Matt Kemp aren't the stars they are in fantasy, so Manny's bat in the key to that offense.
Santana pitched more like Halladay last year than the Santana of a few years ago - only Halladay had better control, pitched more innings, faced tougher competition in a tougher park, pitched in the AL and gave up fewer home runs.