Who do you want to take the last shot?

Written by

Published on February 6, 2009

I had a conversation with my friend Cole yesterday about who has the upper hand in the LeBron vs. Kobe debate. We went back and forth for awhile, but finally Cole played the "trump card" that everyone uses when saying that Kobe is the best: "Man, if time is running out and you've got the ball, who do you want to take the shot?"

First of all let me say that I HATE that line of logic as a way to choose the best player. To me it is bogus to completely ignore the first 99|PERCENT| of the game and base a good chunk of your criteria for "best player" on the final shot. After all, if it's last shot time and you can put the ball in prime Shaq's 50|PERCENT| foul-shooting hands or Mr. Big Shot Chauncey Billups' hands, who would you feel more comfortable inbounding the ball to? But who is the better player? Exactly.

Anyway, Cole pulled out his "last second shot" trump card as a reason to still give Kobe the edge as the best player in the NBA. Which made it ironic that one day later I see that Roland Beech from 82games has compiled a list of game-winning shots for the last five years...and Kobe isn't at the top of the list. First of all, let me disclaim that despite what the numbers say I still would love for Kobe to take the final shot for my team any day. Second of all, it should be pointed out that the above list isn't strictly a "game-winning shots" list...after all, it can be tricky to define what exactly a game-winning shot is. So Beech used this definition: Game Winning shot opportunity = 24 seconds or less left in the game, team with the ball is either tied or down by 1 to 2 points. He justifies this definition in the link, if you are interested, and at the least we can all agree that this situation would definitely qualify as super-clutch/monster shots that would qualify for Sam Cassell's Marbles Dance. So, some results that stick out:

Kobe is 14-for-56 from the field in these situations for a 25|PERCENT| average. He has the distinction of having both taken and missed more shots in this situation than any other player in the NBA. Bryant does redeem himself in the playoffs, though, where he is 4-for-8 in such situations.

LeBron leads the NBA in made field goals with 17 as he has gone 17-for-50 from the field (34|PERCENT| average). He has also taken more free throws (20) than anyone else, but he is also only shooting 70|PERCENT| from the line in this situation. Like Kobe, LeBron has redeemed himself in the playoffs by going 4-for-8 from the field.

So who do you really want to take the shot? You could do worse than Carmelo Anthony, who is 13-for-27 (48|PERCENT| FG) in game-winning situations. He has by-far the highest shooting percentage of those in the top-10 in game-winning shots made, the only one even over 40|PERCENT|.

Vince Carter also looks like a good option, as he is second only to LeBron in field goals made but is also shooting over 90|PERCENT| from the line.

Pau Gasol (9-for-18), Antawn Jamison (9-for-16), Hedo Turkoglu (8-for-16), and Mehmet Okur (7-for-15) are the only others on the list beside Anthony with at least seven shots made that are anywhere near 50|PERCENT| from the field.

Mr. Big shot Chauncey Billups is shooting a paltry 6-for-37 (16|PERCENT|) from the field, but is 18-for-19 from the line.

Interesting. It's interesting that the line between those we think are super-clutch and those that are perceived as lesser is a lot more blurred by memory than we would think, once we actually get to look at the numbers.