Just two years after winning the NFL MVP, Tomlinson is now in danger of being cut by the Chargers. I'd argue that he's a good risk for a team in need of a running back and worth taking in your fantasy drafts next year.

First off, Shaun Alexander is the obvious comp - an aging player who won the league MVP, signed a big contract, then got hurt and fell off a cliff. That might apply here, and it might not, but people are so quick to seize upon a pattern that they assume Tomlinson is Alexander, without considering that perhaps he was just hurt this year and will be better when healthy in 2009.

Plenty of older backs with lots of mileage were productive both in fantasy and reality late in their careers: Curtis Martin, Jerome Bettis, Corey Dillon. Even Edgerrin James has been useful in the playoffs this season. Tomlinson might be a timeshare guy now like Dillon or Bettis, but that's still value in both cases if he's getting goal-line looks.

And what about Thomas Jones - totally washed up in 2007 with terrible YPC and two TDs all year. The Jets offensive line improved dramatically, and he had a monster year in 2008.

I'm not arguing that Tomlinson definitely will bounce back. He might not. Only that there's a good chance he will, and now that his value has essentially bottomed out, it's time to buy.

One other note: all the talk about how the Chargers should have kept Michael Turner last year is pretty silly. Sure it worked out that way, but almost no one was saying that last year. Tomlinson was just one year removed from an MVP season, and he averaged 5.1 YPC in the second half of 2007. Turner was a part-time guy who looked great when he got a chance, but how many of those guys (Amos Zereoue, Kevan Barlow - hell, even Marion Barber) really thrive when given the entire workload?

If you believe that expensive running backs with x amount of mileage should be cut no matter what for cheap replacements, okay fine - but almost no one in the NFL operates that way, e.g, is anyone saying the Redskins should cut Clinton Portis?

If I'm the Broncos, Patriots or Colts, I'd consider adding him for a reasonable price. Is that possible? Will Tomlinson sign for a few million? He will if it's his only chance to play.