I've participated in four mock drafts (all 5x5 mixed leagues), completed our initial set of projections and values, and completed the first draft of the RotoWire 200. So I've started to get a good feel for what the early consensus is in most drafts.

Comparing my rankings with the four draft results, along with the Top ADP's on Mock Draft Central, here's three upper echelon players that I will not likely draft this year. These are all valuable players, so they're not "won't own at any costs" type of guys - I'm just balking at the price.

Ryan Howard (ADP: 12; draft range: 7-14; my rank: 24): Over the years, I've started to emphasize the batting average category in my draft strategy. I've found it's harder to catch up later in the season once I've dug a hole there, and I'm loath to punt any offensive category. Ryan Howard hit .251 last season, and he needed to hit .352 in September just to get there. Just two years prior to that, he did hit well for average, hitting .313. So which is more likely to be of more predictive value? Unfortunately, I think it's the more recent result. Yes, his BABIP (.289) was much lower than his career norm, and below average generally. However, his contact rate was low, his walk rate has started to crater, and he's got a nasty platoon split. Further, he seems to be the type of player that has "old player skills." That's not to suggest that he's falling off a cliff in 2009, but there's at least some non-zero chance it happens. He brings batting .240 into the equation, and that's something I just can't tolerate in a first-round pick, or realy even a second-round pick. Add in that he doesn't run a lick, and that makes him a guy that will go higher than where I'd be willing to take him.

Manny Ramirez (ADP: 20; draft range: 28-43; my rank: 47): I usually loathe when analysts invoke soft factors in a player evaluation, particularly as the primary factor in attributing a player's performance or a team's result. "Chokes in the clutch," "won because Player X showed his leadership skills" etc ... are the perfect impossible-to-prove-or-disprove arguments substituted in place of real analysis. Yet, with Manny, I find myself relying upon one myself. I don't always believe that a player will overperform because he's in a contract year - after all, there's plenty of counter-examples (paging Andruw Jones). Still, as Dayn Perry demonstrated in Baseball Between the Numbers, a walk-year performance spike is often a genuine phenomenon. Looking at Manny's age, his 2007 numbers and his numbers with Boston before the trade, I think he's a good candidate for decline. I'd rather be too late than too early on this one.

Prince Fielder (ADP: 24; draft range: 15-34; my rank: 41): It's rare that I shy away from someone who is young enough to have not hit his prime, but Fielder's decline last year seemed real to me. While he's not yet dipping to the levels of Howard, Fielder's batting average is problem, and I'm also really concerned about his fitness. Let's face it, the genetics aren't that promising. If Fielder hits 45+ homers, then I lose here, but because of his lower average and lack of speed, he has to do that to justify a second-round/early third-round pick.