In addition to trying to figuring out when Tiger Woods will come back from knee surgery in 2009, there may be another level of analysis we'll need to incorporate into forecasting 2009 fantasy golf. We may need to start watching "Mad Money" each night. Golf may be hit the hardest of any sport from the economic meltdown.
While the PGA Tour says most of its sponsors are signed to four-year contracts than run through 2010, it's hard not to look at the upcoming 2009 schedule and get a little worried. Buick sponsors two tournaments in 2009 (the Buick Invitational, Feb. 5-8, and the Buick Open, July 30-Aug. 2 ). GM said last month it would continue its relationship with GM in 2009, but cut back on providing free cards to players. But will Buick even be around in February? And will any sponsorship remain in place if GM goes bankrupt or if political pressure mounts to cut back on extravagant expenditures? And then there are a ton of financial companies as well: Northern Trust, Banco Popular, Wachovia Championship, Travelers Championship, U.S. Bank Championship, The Barclays and the Deutsche Bank Championship. And those are just the title sponsors. The Wachovia sponsorship seems especially vulnerable since they were sold to Citigroup last September amid the financial panic, and then Citigroup itself had to be bailed out by the Federal Government to a tune of about $350 billion. Oh, and they also own Travelers. It's not hard to envision many of those sponsorships facing serious trouble if the world financial crisis gets worse.
The problem for fantasy golf could be especially acute with so many leagues using total money won as the single metric for keeping score. What happens if a league drafts players in January, but prize money is cut by events later in the season when sponsors vanish? It's an unlikely scenario as the PGA Tour seems to be saying everything is set for 2009, but 2010 and beyond is uncertain. Still, just a few months ago the thoughts of a $700 billion bailout by the government of any industry seemed far fetched.
So a fantasy strategy for golf this year may be to take players who play early events since the prize money is still there. If you're into the theory that we're into the great depression 2.0, the rest of the season may not develop as currently planned. It's a slight risk to price into your dollar values and draft rankings. You may hear this soon: "Booyah Mr. Cramer, what's up with Citigroup. No not the stock price, I need to know if they're going bust for my fantasy golf team." A strange new twist on fantasy sports.