Okay, I don't really think that, but one of our editors, Derek VanRiper tipped me off to an interesting article in the Press Democrat. In it, there's a quote from Smith's coach at Utah, Urban Meyer, right after Smith was drafted in 2005. Meyer said:

"Alex is an extremely quick learner. However, he's a guy that, until he understands it, he is nonfunctional. He is a guy that -- I keep hearing how Brett Favre kind of makes something out of nothing and is a person that runs around to make a play -- Alex Smith is not that kind of player. Alex Smith is a person that, once he is taught, has to learn it all. He might struggle early, but once he gets it, he gets it."

The paper goes on to write:

One point Smith made this offseason when talking about the new system is that Mike Martz leaves nothing to chance. Smith said that Martz gives the quarterbacks all the answers. If this and this and this happens, then the quarterback has been taught exactly what to do.

That seems to be exactly the kind of system in which Smith can thrive. .

Many quarterbacks have struggled out of the gate, and the article cites Steve Young's terrible first two years in Tampa, too.
Again, the odds are always against a breakout, but this guy was the No. 1 overall pick. And if you said Derek Anderson was going to be a top-10 QB last year at this time, it would have been just as ridiculous.