After Week 1, it was almost inconceivable to most people that the Browns, a perennial doormat who just got destroyed at home by the Steelers, would beat the Bengals who just beat the division-champions Ravens.

But the line was only seven points, and the moneyline was just +350/-290, i.e., 320. That's just 3.2 to 1, meaning that even Vegas thought there was a 24 percent chance that Cleveland would win. There are 16 games a week, and usually at least four or five have spreads of seven points or more. The biggest spread was in the Bears-Chiefs game, in which Vegas gave the Chiefs a 12.5 percent chance to win. But with four or five teams ranging from 10 percent to 25 percent capable of pulling off an upset each week, you should actually expect one or two. Each is relatively unlikely, but collectively, it's probable.

It's hard to see it coming because we don't know which teams will lose - only that one or two probably will, and also because we invest our current perceptions of teams with far too much reality. People will actually believe the Steelers are a good team this year after two weeks, or that the Browns are horrible after one. It's better just to note that one team played well, and the other played poorly, or was out of sync. There are no bad teams in the NFL - every one of them is a billion dollar organization with virtually super-human athletes working dedicatedly with highly-paid professional coaches to get better at football and win games. It should not surprise you that a quarterback who is more accurate and has a better arm than the best players you've ever played a pickup game with, should get the ball to athletes like Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards down the field. This isn't No. 16 vs. No. 1 in college hoop (though I'd take even money that it happens in the next 20 years).

What does this mean for us? A few things: (1) Don't overplay matchups when setting your lineups, (2) Don't look at schedules too much when ranking your players (3) all things being equal, bet the underdog and (4) Don't get cute in survivor - take the Pats and the Colts as soon as you can because given what little we know, we need to get behind the surest of unsure things on the board.