In one of my articles last October I made some pre-season predictions. One of those predictions was that either Josh Smith or Gerald Wallace would finish higher than Shawn Marion in roto player raters this season. It was a bold prediction, because Marion almost always finishes at the top of the raters due to his durability and his diverse game that contributes positively to almost every category without any corresponding weaknesses. Last season, Marion finished #3 overall in the NBA.com FSPI rating (5.97) while Smith was 16th (5.14) and Wallace was #25 (4.90). This season it has been a bit closer but Marion is still ahead with an FSPI rating of #7 overall (5.33), Smith #10 (5.05) and Wallace #21 (4.85).
A lot has changed recently, though. Marion has been traded out of Phoenix and now resides in Miami, Wallace was playing out of his mind before he injured his foot (#1 overall in FSPI rating over the past 10 games), and Smith went through a four game stretch last week in which he almost had three different triple doubles with some combination of points, blocks, rebounds and assists. With all of that in mind, what is the likelihood that my pre-season prediction holds up and either Smith or Wallace passes Marion in the second half of the season?
Well, I�d say that the odds are at least decent. Marion in Miami will no longer have Nash to set him up for wide open looks, which means that his field goal percentage and turnovers could suffer. His counting numbers could increase, especially scoring and rebounding, but part of his value is tied into his balanced contributions/no negatives approach so on the whole his rating could conceivably decline a bit.
On the other hand, Wallace seems to have settled into his role and should continue to post monster numbers for as long as his health holds up. That is the main issue, though�he has always had health troubles, so I can�t just assume that he�ll be healthy from here on out. If he is, though, he has the ability to compete with/outperform Marion in pretty much every category outside of free throw percentage.
Smith could also surpass Marion, but in a different way. He probably won�t catch Marion in shooting percentages (especially FT%), and his scoring may not be as good either. But Smith�s ridiculous ability to block shots, when combined with strengths in most of the counting categories, at least make it conceivable that he could jump the three spots in the rankings to surpass Marion.
Despite the fact that my prediction rests upon either Wallace or Smith overtaking Marion, if a draft were held today I would still pick Marion above either of them. He�s still the safest pick, among the three. But if I had Marion in a league where someone was willing to trade me either Wallace or Smith plus an upgrade in exchange, I would probably do it because both of them have proven to be almost as valuable as he is.